Arminia Bielefeld 0-1 FC Augsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Arminia Bielefeld at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Arminia Bielefeld vs FC Augsburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Augsburg make the trip to SchücoArena to face Arminia Bielefeld in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Friday 4 March 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
Arminia Bielefeld (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Arminia Bielefeld, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Arminia Bielefeld's home record at SchücoArena: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FC Augsburg have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Augsburg away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Arminia Bielefeld's 1.50 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of FC Augsburg's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Arminia Bielefeld have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, FC Augsburg in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Arminia Bielefeld, 1 for FC Augsburg and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Arminia Bielefeld goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
FC Augsburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arminia Bielefeld 40% versus FC Augsburg 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arminia Bielefeld 38% | FC Augsburg 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arminia Bielefeld 1.49 xG and FC Augsburg 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.740 / defence 0.971 | FC Augsburg attack 0.810 / defence 1.131. League average goals — home 1.777 / away 1.355. Arminia Bielefeld's attack strength of 0.740 is below the league average — the 1.49 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 58 Arminia Bielefeld games / 58 FC Augsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Arminia Bielefeld 45% | Draw 29% | FC Augsburg 26%. Fair-value odds: Arminia Bielefeld 2.22 | Draw 3.45 | FC Augsburg 3.85. Arminia Bielefeld hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Arminia Bielefeld as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Arminia Bielefeld if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.55 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Arminia Bielefeld 60% | FC Augsburg 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arminia Bielefeld vs FC Augsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: SchücoArena • Kick-off: Friday 4 Mar 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arminia Bielefeld 45% | Draw 29% | FC Augsburg 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Arminia Bielefeld 1.49 / FC Augsburg 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.740 / def 0.971 | FC Augsburg attack 0.810 / def 1.131 | league avg home 1.777 / away 1.355 • Poisson stance: Arminia Bielefeld (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Arminia Bielefeld xG
Expected Goals
1.07
FC Augsburg xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arminia Bielefeld vs FC Augsburg kick off?
Arminia Bielefeld vs FC Augsburg kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 4 March 2022 at SchücoArena.
What was the final score in Arminia Bielefeld vs FC Augsburg?
Arminia Bielefeld 0 - 1 FC Augsburg.
Where is Arminia Bielefeld vs FC Augsburg being played?
The match is being played at SchücoArena.
What competition is Arminia Bielefeld vs FC Augsburg part of?
Arminia Bielefeld vs FC Augsburg is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Arminia Bielefeld vs FC Augsburg?
Our statistical model gives Arminia Bielefeld a 45% chance of winning, FC Augsburg a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Arminia Bielefeld the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arminia Bielefeld vs FC Augsburg?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Arminia Bielefeld and FC Augsburg will score (BTTS).
Will Arminia Bielefeld vs FC Augsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arminia Bielefeld and FC Augsburg?
Record (3 meetings): Arminia Bielefeld 0W | Draws 2 | FC Augsburg 1W.
What form are Arminia Bielefeld and FC Augsburg in?
Arminia Bielefeld (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. FC Augsburg (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Arminia Bielefeld's attack at 0.74x the league average against FC Augsburg's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.49 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Augsburg's attack (0.81x) against Arminia Bielefeld's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.0%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Arminia Bielefeld Win
45%
2.20
29%
3.44
26%
3.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Arminia Bielefeld xG
Total xG
2.55
1.07
FC Augsburg xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
3.91
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
23%
4.43
Win to Nil
16%
6.40
6%
17.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 8.3 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.3 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arminia Bielefeld vs FC Augsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Arminia Bielefeld and FC Augsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Arminia Bielefeld and 1.07 for FC Augsburg, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Arminia Bielefeld vs FC Augsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Arminia Bielefeld's recent record stands at 14W 18D 26L from 58 games, a 1.03 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Arminia Bielefeld is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Augsburg, meanwhile, have gone 15W 14D 29L across 58 games — 1.02 PPG, with L-W-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for FC Augsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.03 PPG for Arminia Bielefeld against 1.02 for FC Augsburg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Arminia Bielefeld have managed 8W 9D 12L from 29 games — 1.14 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Augsburg's away record stands at 5W 6D 18L across 29 trips, a 0.72 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Arminia Bielefeld come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Arminia Bielefeld are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; FC Augsburg are on 1.07 scored and 1.64 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arminia Bielefeld
Blended
FC Augsburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arminia Bielefeld and FC Augsburg in coming into this match?
Arminia Bielefeld have gone 14W 18D 26L in their last 58 games (1.03 PPG), while FC Augsburg have gone 15W 14D 29L in their last 58 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Arminia Bielefeld at home or FC Augsburg away?
Arminia Bielefeld's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Arminia Bielefeld at home: 1.14 PPG; FC Augsburg away: 0.72 PPG.
Have Arminia Bielefeld or FC Augsburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Arminia Bielefeld have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, FC Augsburg in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since December 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Arminia Bielefeld have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against FC Augsburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Arminia Bielefeld
2
Draws
2
FC Augsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Arminia Bielefeld and FC Augsburg?
From 4 meetings on record, Arminia Bielefeld have won 0, FC Augsburg have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Arminia Bielefeld and FC Augsburg last play each other?
They last met on 4 March 2022, when Arminia Bielefeld 0-1 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between Arminia Bielefeld and FC Augsburg?
FC Augsburg have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Arminia Bielefeld see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Arminia Bielefeld 41%, FC Augsburg 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Arminia Bielefeld) and 48% (FC Augsburg).
On the defensive side: Arminia Bielefeld keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Arminia Bielefeld have failed to score in 34% of games; FC Augsburg in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arminia Bielefeld home games / FC Augsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arminia Bielefeld play FC Augsburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Arminia Bielefeld's recent matches and 52% of FC Augsburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Arminia Bielefeld vs FC Augsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Arminia Bielefeld's recent games and 48% of FC Augsburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Arminia Bielefeld and FC Augsburg tend to score early?
Arminia Bielefeld have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, FC Augsburg in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC Augsburg defy the odds to beat Arminia Bielefeld 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Augsburg beat Arminia Bielefeld 0-1 at SchücoArena, Regular Season - 25, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Arminia Bielefeld 1.49 xG and FC Augsburg 1.07 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Arminia Bielefeld fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.74 / defence 0.97 against FC Augsburg attack 0.81 / defence 1.13, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Arminia Bielefeld 45% | Draw 29% | FC Augsburg 26%, with Arminia Bielefeld to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual FC Augsburg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arminia Bielefeld 38%, FC Augsburg 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Arminia Bielefeld's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FC Augsburg's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Arminia Bielefeld 1.03 PPG, FC Augsburg 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Augsburg win broke the near-deadlock. Arminia Bielefeld (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.76 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.