Arminia Bielefeld 1-1 Borussia Mönchengladbach – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Borussia Mönchengladbach at 36% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Arminia Bielefeld vs Borussia Mönchengladbach encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Borussia Mönchengladbach travel to SchücoArena to take on Arminia Bielefeld. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 February 2022, 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Arminia Bielefeld stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Arminia Bielefeld, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Arminia Bielefeld at SchücoArena this season: 1W 6D 3L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.90 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at SchücoArena this season.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Borussia Mönchengladbach have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Mönchengladbach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Arminia Bielefeld are in the better shape of the two on current Bundesliga data — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Arminia Bielefeld register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Borussia Mönchengladbach in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The previous 3 encounters between these sides heavily favour Borussia Mönchengladbach, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Arminia Bielefeld.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2021, ended 1–3 with Borussia Mönchengladbach winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Arminia Bielefeld trading profile (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Borussia Mönchengladbach trading profile (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arminia Bielefeld 41% versus Borussia Mönchengladbach 70%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arminia Bielefeld 39% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arminia Bielefeld 1.37 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.772 / defence 1.102 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.947 / defence 1.043. League average goals — home 1.700 / away 1.358. Arminia Bielefeld's attack strength of 0.772 is below the league average — the 1.37 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 54 Arminia Bielefeld games / 54 Borussia Mönchengladbach games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Arminia Bielefeld 34% | Draw 30% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 36%. Fair-value odds: Arminia Bielefeld 2.94 | Draw 3.33 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Borussia Mönchengladbach lead the H2H ledger, but Arminia Bielefeld carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Borussia Mönchengladbach as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Arminia Bielefeld (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Borussia Mönchengladbach offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.79 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Arminia Bielefeld 60% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arminia Bielefeld vs Borussia Mönchengladbach | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: SchücoArena • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Feb 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arminia Bielefeld 34% | Draw 30% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 59% | xG Arminia Bielefeld 1.37 / Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.772 / def 1.102 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.947 / def 1.043 | league avg home 1.700 / away 1.358 • Poisson stance: Borussia Mönchengladbach (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Arminia Bielefeld xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arminia Bielefeld vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kick off?
Arminia Bielefeld vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 5 February 2022 at SchücoArena.
What was the final score in Arminia Bielefeld vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Arminia Bielefeld 1 - 1 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Where is Arminia Bielefeld vs Borussia Mönchengladbach being played?
The match is being played at SchücoArena.
What competition is Arminia Bielefeld vs Borussia Mönchengladbach part of?
Arminia Bielefeld vs Borussia Mönchengladbach is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Arminia Bielefeld vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our statistical model gives Arminia Bielefeld a 34% chance of winning, Borussia Mönchengladbach a 36% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Borussia Mönchengladbach the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arminia Bielefeld vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Arminia Bielefeld and Borussia Mönchengladbach will score (BTTS).
Will Arminia Bielefeld vs Borussia Mönchengladbach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arminia Bielefeld and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Record (3 meetings): Arminia Bielefeld 0W | Draws 0 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 3W.
What form are Arminia Bielefeld and Borussia Mönchengladbach in?
Arminia Bielefeld (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Arminia Bielefeld's attack at 0.77x the league average against Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack versus Arminia Bielefeld's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Mönchengladbach Win
34%
2.97
30%
3.28
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Arminia Bielefeld xG
Total xG
2.79
1.42
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
2.97
34%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
24%
4.13
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
8%
12.26
9%
10.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 8.7 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.0 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.2 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arminia Bielefeld vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Arminia Bielefeld and Borussia Mönchengladbach expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Arminia Bielefeld and 1.42 for Borussia Mönchengladbach, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Arminia Bielefeld vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Arminia Bielefeld's recent record stands at 13W 17D 24L from 54 games, a 1.04 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Arminia Bielefeld is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Borussia Mönchengladbach, meanwhile, have gone 19W 14D 21L across 54 games — 1.31 PPG, with L-D-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Borussia Mönchengladbach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Arminia Bielefeld on 1.04 PPG, Borussia Mönchengladbach on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Arminia Bielefeld have managed 7W 8D 12L from 27 games — 1.07 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's away record stands at 7W 8D 12L across 27 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Arminia Bielefeld are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Borussia Mönchengladbach are on 1.67 scored and 1.72 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Mönchengladbach in 70%.
Last 54 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arminia Bielefeld
Blended
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arminia Bielefeld and Borussia Mönchengladbach in coming into this match?
Arminia Bielefeld have gone 13W 17D 24L in their last 54 games (1.04 PPG), while Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 19W 14D 21L in their last 54 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Arminia Bielefeld at home or Borussia Mönchengladbach away?
Arminia Bielefeld's home record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Arminia Bielefeld at home: 1.07 PPG; Borussia Mönchengladbach away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Arminia Bielefeld or Borussia Mönchengladbach been keeping clean sheets recently?
Arminia Bielefeld have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Borussia Mönchengladbach in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Apr 2021, when Borussia Mönchengladbach won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Arminia Bielefeld's record when hosting Borussia Mönchengladbach specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Arminia Bielefeld
1
Draws
3
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Arminia Bielefeld and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
From 4 meetings on record, Arminia Bielefeld have won 0, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Arminia Bielefeld and Borussia Mönchengladbach last play each other?
They last met on 5 February 2022, when Arminia Bielefeld 1-1 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Who has won more matches between Arminia Bielefeld and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Arminia Bielefeld see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Arminia Bielefeld 41%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Arminia Bielefeld) and 74% (Borussia Mönchengladbach). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 59% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Arminia Bielefeld keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Arminia Bielefeld have failed to score in 37% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arminia Bielefeld home games / Borussia Mönchengladbach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arminia Bielefeld play Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 41% of Arminia Bielefeld's games and 70% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Arminia Bielefeld vs Borussia Mönchengladbach usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 41% of Arminia Bielefeld's matches and 74% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's.
Do Arminia Bielefeld and Borussia Mönchengladbach tend to score early?
Arminia Bielefeld have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Borussia Mönchengladbach in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Arminia Bielefeld and Borussia Mönchengladbach share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Arminia Bielefeld and Borussia Mönchengladbach finished level at 1-1 at SchücoArena, Regular Season - 21, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Arminia Bielefeld 1.37 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.42 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.77 / defence 1.10 against Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.95 / defence 1.04, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Arminia Bielefeld 34% | Draw 30% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 36%, with Borussia Mönchengladbach to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arminia Bielefeld 39%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Arminia Bielefeld's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Arminia Bielefeld 1.04 PPG, Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.