Arminia Bielefeld 1-2 Bayer Leverkusen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bayer Leverkusen at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Arminia Bielefeld vs Bayer Leverkusen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
SchücoArena plays host to Arminia Bielefeld versus Bayer Leverkusen in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Saturday 21 November 2020 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Arminia Bielefeld have collected 0.57 PPG across 7 Bundesliga outings this season: 1W 1D 5L. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.57 goals per game and conceding 2.14 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.14 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Arminia Bielefeld have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Arminia Bielefeld's form when playing at home: 1W 0D 2L across 3 games at SchücoArena this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Bayer Leverkusen (all games): 4W 3D 0L across 7 Bundesliga outings this term — 2.14 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 71% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Bayer Leverkusen have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Bayer Leverkusen have posted 2W 2D 0L from 4 away outings — 2.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Bayer Leverkusen are 1.57 PPG clear of Arminia Bielefeld in recent Bundesliga fixtures (2.14 vs 0.57). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading
Arminia Bielefeld half-time and goal-timing data (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; they fail to score in 43% of games.
Bayer Leverkusen half-time and goal-timing data (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arminia Bielefeld 43% versus Bayer Leverkusen 71%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arminia Bielefeld 43% | Bayer Leverkusen 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arminia Bielefeld 0.93 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.727 / defence 1.337 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 0.887 / defence 0.985. League average goals — home 1.300 / away 1.452. Arminia Bielefeld's attack strength of 0.727 is below the league average — the 0.93 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 7 Arminia Bielefeld games / 7 Bayer Leverkusen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Arminia Bielefeld 17% | Draw 31% | Bayer Leverkusen 53%. Fair-value odds: Arminia Bielefeld 5.88 | Draw 3.23 | Bayer Leverkusen 1.89. Bayer Leverkusen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bayer Leverkusen are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bayer Leverkusen if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Arminia Bielefeld 33% | Bayer Leverkusen 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arminia Bielefeld vs Bayer Leverkusen | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: SchücoArena • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Nov 2020, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arminia Bielefeld 17% | Draw 31% | Bayer Leverkusen 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Arminia Bielefeld 0.93 / Bayer Leverkusen 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.727 / def 1.337 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 0.887 / def 0.985 | league avg home 1.300 / away 1.452 • Poisson stance: Bayer Leverkusen (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Arminia Bielefeld xG
Expected Goals
1.72
Bayer Leverkusen xG
53%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arminia Bielefeld vs Bayer Leverkusen kick off?
Arminia Bielefeld vs Bayer Leverkusen kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 21 November 2020 at SchücoArena.
What was the final score in Arminia Bielefeld vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Arminia Bielefeld 1 - 2 Bayer Leverkusen.
Where is Arminia Bielefeld vs Bayer Leverkusen being played?
The match is being played at SchücoArena.
What competition is Arminia Bielefeld vs Bayer Leverkusen part of?
Arminia Bielefeld vs Bayer Leverkusen is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Arminia Bielefeld vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our statistical model gives Arminia Bielefeld a 17% chance of winning, Bayer Leverkusen a 53% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Bayer Leverkusen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arminia Bielefeld vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Arminia Bielefeld and Bayer Leverkusen will score (BTTS).
Will Arminia Bielefeld vs Bayer Leverkusen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arminia Bielefeld and Bayer Leverkusen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Arminia Bielefeld and Bayer Leverkusen in?
Arminia Bielefeld (all comps): 1W-1D-5L in 7 | 0.57 PPG | GF 0.57 / GA 2.14 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Bayer Leverkusen (all comps): 4W-3D-0L in 7 | 2.14 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.14 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Arminia Bielefeld's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against Bayer Leverkusen's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.93. Flip it around — Bayer Leverkusen's attack (0.89x) against Arminia Bielefeld's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.72.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.7%), 0-2 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayer Leverkusen Win
17%
5.94
31%
3.28
53%
1.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
0 – 2
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Arminia Bielefeld xG
Total xG
2.65
1.72
Bayer Leverkusen xG
5.94
17%
Home win
3.28
31%
Draw
1.90
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
18%
5.60
39%
2.54
Win to Nil
3%
33.25
21%
4.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 12.1 | 10.4 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.3 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 5.3 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arminia Bielefeld vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Arminia Bielefeld and Bayer Leverkusen expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Arminia Bielefeld and 1.72 for Bayer Leverkusen, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Arminia Bielefeld vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 7 outings, Arminia Bielefeld have picked up 0.57 PPG on a 1W 1D 5L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Arminia Bielefeld, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Bayer Leverkusen's form line: 4W 3D 0L from 7 games, 2.14 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Bayer Leverkusen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Bayer Leverkusen are the form team by 1.57 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Arminia Bielefeld.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Arminia Bielefeld have posted 1.00 PPG from 3 outings (1W 0D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 0.57 PPG overall — Arminia Bielefeld are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Bayer Leverkusen have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 away games — 2.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bayer Leverkusen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Arminia Bielefeld are averaging 0.57 goals scored and 2.14 conceded per game recently; Bayer Leverkusen are on 2.00 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bayer Leverkusen in 71%.
Last 7 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arminia Bielefeld
Early Season
Bayer Leverkusen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arminia Bielefeld and Bayer Leverkusen in coming into this match?
Arminia Bielefeld have gone 1W 1D 5L in their last 7 games (0.57 PPG), while Bayer Leverkusen have gone 4W 3D 0L in their last 7 (2.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Arminia Bielefeld at home or Bayer Leverkusen away?
Bayer Leverkusen's away record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Arminia Bielefeld at home: 1.00 PPG; Bayer Leverkusen away: 2.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Bayer Leverkusen go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bayer Leverkusen won 0-4 on 3 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Arminia Bielefeld have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Bayer Leverkusen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Arminia Bielefeld
0
Draws
3
Bayer Leverkusen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Arminia Bielefeld and Bayer Leverkusen?
From 4 meetings on record, Arminia Bielefeld have won 1, Bayer Leverkusen have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Arminia Bielefeld and Bayer Leverkusen last play each other?
They last met on 26 February 2022, when Bayer Leverkusen 3-0 Arminia Bielefeld.
Who has won more matches between Arminia Bielefeld and Bayer Leverkusen?
Bayer Leverkusen have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Arminia Bielefeld see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 100% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Arminia Bielefeld 33%, Bayer Leverkusen 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Arminia Bielefeld and 33% for Bayer Leverkusen.
On the defensive side: Arminia Bielefeld keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Bayer Leverkusen in 33%; Arminia Bielefeld have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arminia Bielefeld home games / Bayer Leverkusen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arminia Bielefeld play Bayer Leverkusen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Arminia Bielefeld's recent matches and 67% of Bayer Leverkusen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Arminia Bielefeld vs Bayer Leverkusen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Arminia Bielefeld's recent games and 33% of Bayer Leverkusen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Arminia Bielefeld and Bayer Leverkusen tend to score early?
Arminia Bielefeld have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Bayer Leverkusen in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bayer Leverkusen edge out Arminia Bielefeld 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bayer Leverkusen beat Arminia Bielefeld 1-2 at SchücoArena, Regular Season - 8, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Arminia Bielefeld 0.93 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.72 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.73 / defence 1.34 against Bayer Leverkusen attack 0.89 / defence 0.98, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Arminia Bielefeld 17% | Draw 31% | Bayer Leverkusen 53%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arminia Bielefeld 43%, Bayer Leverkusen 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Arminia Bielefeld's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bayer Leverkusen arrived the stronger side — 2.14 PPG against 0.57. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.