1899 Hoffenheim 3-4 SC Freiburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1899 Hoffenheim at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1899 Hoffenheim vs SC Freiburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 32 sees SC Freiburg travel to PreZero Arena to take on 1899 Hoffenheim. The game is scheduled for Saturday 30 April 2022, 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, 1899 Hoffenheim stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, 1899 Hoffenheim have posted 5W 3D 2L at PreZero Arena — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
SC Freiburg — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
SC Freiburg's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: 1899 Hoffenheim 1.50 PPG, SC Freiburg 1.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. 1899 Hoffenheim register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, SC Freiburg in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for 1899 Hoffenheim, 0 for SC Freiburg and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 11 Dec 2021, ended 2–1 with 1899 Hoffenheim winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
1899 Hoffenheim in-play tendencies (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
SC Freiburg in-play tendencies (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1899 Hoffenheim 63% and SC Freiburg 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1899 Hoffenheim 66% | SC Freiburg 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1899 Hoffenheim 1.26 xG and SC Freiburg 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.938 / defence 0.877 | SC Freiburg attack 0.942 / defence 0.829. League average goals — home 1.618 / away 1.367. Data: 65 1899 Hoffenheim games / 65 SC Freiburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1899 Hoffenheim 37% | Draw 31% | SC Freiburg 31%. Fair-value odds: 1899 Hoffenheim 2.70 | Draw 3.23 | SC Freiburg 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, 1899 Hoffenheim are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on 1899 Hoffenheim offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: 1899 Hoffenheim 70% | SC Freiburg 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1899 Hoffenheim vs SC Freiburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: PreZero Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Apr 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1899 Hoffenheim 37% | Draw 31% | SC Freiburg 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG 1899 Hoffenheim 1.26 / SC Freiburg 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.938 / def 0.877 | SC Freiburg attack 0.942 / def 0.829 | league avg home 1.618 / away 1.367 • Poisson stance: 1899 Hoffenheim (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
1899 Hoffenheim xG
Expected Goals
1.13
SC Freiburg xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1899 Hoffenheim vs SC Freiburg kick off?
1899 Hoffenheim vs SC Freiburg kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 30 April 2022 at PreZero Arena.
What was the final score in 1899 Hoffenheim vs SC Freiburg?
1899 Hoffenheim 3 - 4 SC Freiburg.
Where is 1899 Hoffenheim vs SC Freiburg being played?
The match is being played at PreZero Arena.
What competition is 1899 Hoffenheim vs SC Freiburg part of?
1899 Hoffenheim vs SC Freiburg is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1899 Hoffenheim vs SC Freiburg?
Our statistical model gives 1899 Hoffenheim a 37% chance of winning, SC Freiburg a 31% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making 1899 Hoffenheim the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1899 Hoffenheim vs SC Freiburg?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both 1899 Hoffenheim and SC Freiburg will score (BTTS).
Will 1899 Hoffenheim vs SC Freiburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1899 Hoffenheim and SC Freiburg?
Record (1 meetings): 1899 Hoffenheim 1W | Draws 0 | SC Freiburg 0W.
What form are 1899 Hoffenheim and SC Freiburg in?
1899 Hoffenheim (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. SC Freiburg (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from 1899 Hoffenheim's attack rating (0.94) and SC Freiburg's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SC Freiburg's attack versus 1899 Hoffenheim's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1899 Hoffenheim Win
37%
2.67
31%
3.19
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
1899 Hoffenheim xG
Total xG
2.39
1.13
SC Freiburg xG
2.67
37%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
28%
3.51
Win to Nil
12%
8.26
9%
11.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 10.4 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.1 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1899 Hoffenheim vs SC Freiburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are 1899 Hoffenheim and SC Freiburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for 1899 Hoffenheim and 1.13 for SC Freiburg, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for 1899 Hoffenheim vs SC Freiburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 65 outings, 1899 Hoffenheim have picked up 1.37 PPG on a 24W 17D 24L record — L-L-L-D-D across the most recent five.
SC Freiburg's form line: 26W 19D 20L from 65 games, 1.49 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: 1899 Hoffenheim on 1.37 PPG, SC Freiburg on 1.49. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, 1899 Hoffenheim have posted 1.72 PPG from 32 outings (16W 7D 9L).
On the road, SC Freiburg have gone 11W 8D 13L from 32 away games — 1.28 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1899 Hoffenheim come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
1899 Hoffenheim are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; SC Freiburg are on 1.60 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1899 Hoffenheim have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; SC Freiburg in 60%.
Last 65 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1899 Hoffenheim
Current Season
SC Freiburg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1899 Hoffenheim and SC Freiburg in coming into this match?
1899 Hoffenheim have gone 24W 17D 24L in their last 65 games (1.37 PPG), while SC Freiburg have gone 26W 19D 20L in their last 65 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1899 Hoffenheim at home or SC Freiburg away?
1899 Hoffenheim's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1899 Hoffenheim at home: 1.72 PPG; SC Freiburg away: 1.28 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between 1899 Hoffenheim and SC Freiburg runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Feb 2026, when 1899 Hoffenheim won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
1899 Hoffenheim's record when hosting SC Freiburg specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
1899 Hoffenheim
3
Draws
5
SC Freiburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1899 Hoffenheim and SC Freiburg?
From 10 meetings on record, 1899 Hoffenheim have won 2, SC Freiburg have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did 1899 Hoffenheim and SC Freiburg last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when 1899 Hoffenheim 3-0 SC Freiburg.
Who has won more matches between 1899 Hoffenheim and SC Freiburg?
SC Freiburg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
1899 Hoffenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1899 Hoffenheim 62%, SC Freiburg 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 66% for 1899 Hoffenheim and 59% for SC Freiburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SC Freiburg in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1899 Hoffenheim home games / SC Freiburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1899 Hoffenheim play SC Freiburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of 1899 Hoffenheim's games and 53% of SC Freiburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1899 Hoffenheim vs SC Freiburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of 1899 Hoffenheim's matches and 59% of SC Freiburg's.
Do 1899 Hoffenheim and SC Freiburg tend to score early?
1899 Hoffenheim have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, SC Freiburg in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as SC Freiburg defy the odds to beat 1899 Hoffenheim 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Freiburg beat 1899 Hoffenheim 3-4 at PreZero Arena, Regular Season - 32, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1899 Hoffenheim 1.26 xG and SC Freiburg 1.13 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. 1899 Hoffenheim beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SC Freiburg outscored their 1.13 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.94 / defence 0.88 against SC Freiburg attack 0.94 / defence 0.83, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1899 Hoffenheim 37% | Draw 31% | SC Freiburg 31%, with 1899 Hoffenheim to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual SC Freiburg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1899 Hoffenheim 66%, SC Freiburg 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1899 Hoffenheim's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
SC Freiburg's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1899 Hoffenheim 1.37 PPG, SC Freiburg 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SC Freiburg win broke the near-deadlock. 1899 Hoffenheim (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.91 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.