1899 Hoffenheim vs FC Augsburg – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates 1899 Hoffenheim at 49% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this 1899 Hoffenheim vs FC Augsburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees FC Augsburg travel to SNP Arena to take on 1899 Hoffenheim. The game is scheduled for Sunday 29 November 2026, 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, 1899 Hoffenheim stand at 4W 0D 6L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for 1899 Hoffenheim, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, 1899 Hoffenheim have posted 4W 2D 4L at SNP Arena — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, FC Augsburg have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Augsburg's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (1899 Hoffenheim) versus 1.20 (FC Augsburg). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: 1899 Hoffenheim have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 10 past contests while FC Augsburg have managed just 1 wins.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Apr 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The historical record gives 1899 Hoffenheim a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 10 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
1899 Hoffenheim in-play tendencies (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
FC Augsburg in-play tendencies (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1899 Hoffenheim 67% and FC Augsburg 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (1899 Hoffenheim 74% | FC Augsburg 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1899 Hoffenheim 2.40 xG and FC Augsburg 1.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.100 / defence 1.038 | FC Augsburg attack 1.324 / defence 1.148. League average goals — home 1.898 / away 1.375. FC Augsburg have an above-average attack strength of 1.324 — the away xG of 1.89 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 42 1899 Hoffenheim games / 42 FC Augsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1899 Hoffenheim 49% | Draw 20% | FC Augsburg 31%. Fair-value odds: 1899 Hoffenheim 2.04 | Draw 5.00 | FC Augsburg 3.23. 1899 Hoffenheim hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (20%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 80% | BTTS probability 77% | Total xG 4.29. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 80% — a total xG of 4.29 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 77% reflects that both xG figures (2.40 / 1.89) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is 1899 Hoffenheim at 49% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 4.29 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 80% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 77%. Form rates corroborate: 1899 Hoffenheim 70% | FC Augsburg 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1899 Hoffenheim vs FC Augsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: SNP Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Nov 2026, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1899 Hoffenheim 49% | Draw 20% | FC Augsburg 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 80% | BTTS 77% | xG 1899 Hoffenheim 2.40 / FC Augsburg 1.89 • Poisson strength factors: 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.100 / def 1.038 | FC Augsburg attack 1.324 / def 1.148 | league avg home 1.898 / away 1.375 • Poisson stance: 1899 Hoffenheim (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.40
1899 Hoffenheim xG
Expected Goals
1.89
FC Augsburg xG
77%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
80%
Over 2.5
62%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1899 Hoffenheim vs FC Augsburg kick off?
1899 Hoffenheim vs FC Augsburg is scheduled to kick off at 16:30 on Sunday 29 November 2026 at SNP Arena.
Where is 1899 Hoffenheim vs FC Augsburg being played?
The match is being played at SNP Arena.
What competition is 1899 Hoffenheim vs FC Augsburg part of?
1899 Hoffenheim vs FC Augsburg is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1899 Hoffenheim vs FC Augsburg?
Our statistical model gives 1899 Hoffenheim a 49% chance of winning, FC Augsburg a 31% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making 1899 Hoffenheim the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1899 Hoffenheim vs FC Augsburg?
Our model estimates a 77% probability that both 1899 Hoffenheim and FC Augsburg will score (BTTS).
Will 1899 Hoffenheim vs FC Augsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 80%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1899 Hoffenheim and FC Augsburg?
Record (10 meetings): 1899 Hoffenheim 5W | Draws 4 | FC Augsburg 1W.
What form are 1899 Hoffenheim and FC Augsburg in?
1899 Hoffenheim (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. FC Augsburg (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from 1899 Hoffenheim's attack rating (1.10) and FC Augsburg's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 2.40 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Augsburg's attack versus 1899 Hoffenheim's defence, projects 1.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 7.5%. Close behind: 2-2 (7.1%), 1-1 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1899 Hoffenheim Win
49%
2.02
20%
5.01
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
7.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 2
7.1%
Draw
1 – 1
6.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.40
1899 Hoffenheim xG
Total xG
4.29
1.89
FC Augsburg xG
2.02
49%
Home win
5.01
20%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
93%
Over 1.5
1.08
7%
Under 1.5
14.29
80%
Over 2.5
1.25
20%
Under 2.5
5.00
62%
Over 3.5
1.61
38%
Under 3.5
2.63
43%
Over 4.5
2.33
57%
Under 4.5
1.75
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
77%
BTTS Yes
1.29
23%
BTTS No
4.43
Clean Sheet
15%
6.61
9%
10.99
Win to Nil
7%
13.38
3%
35.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 3.3 | 6.2 | 5.9 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.5 | 7.1 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 6.0 | 5.6 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1899 Hoffenheim vs FC Augsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.5%.
How many goals are 1899 Hoffenheim and FC Augsburg expected to score?
The model projects 2.40 expected goals for 1899 Hoffenheim and 1.89 for FC Augsburg, a combined total of 4.29.
How confident is the prediction model for 1899 Hoffenheim vs FC Augsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 42 outings, 1899 Hoffenheim have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 21W 7D 14L record — L-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for 1899 Hoffenheim is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Augsburg's form line: 14W 10D 18L from 42 games, 1.24 PPG, last five L-D-L-D-L. The sample for FC Augsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, 1899 Hoffenheim are the form team by 0.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Augsburg.
Venue Form
On home soil, 1899 Hoffenheim have posted 1.90 PPG from 20 outings (12W 2D 6L).
On the road, FC Augsburg have gone 6W 2D 12L from 20 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1899 Hoffenheim come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
1899 Hoffenheim are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; FC Augsburg are on 1.50 scored and 1.81 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1899 Hoffenheim have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; FC Augsburg in 67%.
Last 42 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1899 Hoffenheim
Blended
FC Augsburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1899 Hoffenheim and FC Augsburg in coming into this match?
1899 Hoffenheim have gone 21W 7D 14L in their last 42 games (1.67 PPG), while FC Augsburg have gone 14W 10D 18L in their last 42 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1899 Hoffenheim at home or FC Augsburg away?
1899 Hoffenheim's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1899 Hoffenheim at home: 1.90 PPG; FC Augsburg away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Aug 2021, when 1899 Hoffenheim won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
1899 Hoffenheim's record when hosting FC Augsburg specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
1899 Hoffenheim
4
Draws
1
FC Augsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1899 Hoffenheim and FC Augsburg?
From 10 meetings on record, 1899 Hoffenheim have won 5, FC Augsburg have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did 1899 Hoffenheim and FC Augsburg last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when FC Augsburg 2-2 1899 Hoffenheim.
Who has won more matches between 1899 Hoffenheim and FC Augsburg?
1899 Hoffenheim have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
1899 Hoffenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — 1899 Hoffenheim at 65%, FC Augsburg at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for 1899 Hoffenheim and 75% for FC Augsburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Augsburg in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1899 Hoffenheim home games / FC Augsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1899 Hoffenheim play FC Augsburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of 1899 Hoffenheim's games and 70% of FC Augsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1899 Hoffenheim vs FC Augsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of 1899 Hoffenheim's matches and 75% of FC Augsburg's.
Do 1899 Hoffenheim and FC Augsburg tend to score early?
1899 Hoffenheim have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, FC Augsburg in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.