1. FC Köln 0-0 Hertha BSC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hertha BSC at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Köln vs Hertha BSC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 16 as 1. FC Köln welcome Hertha BSC to RheinEnergieStadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 16 January 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
1. FC Köln — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Köln, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Köln's form when playing at home: 0W 2D 6L across 8 games at RheinEnergieStadion this term (0.25 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.25 lags behind their overall 0.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at RheinEnergieStadion this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hertha BSC stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Hertha BSC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hertha BSC's away record: 2W 2D 4L from 8 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.62 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (1. FC Köln) versus 1.30 (Hertha BSC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. 1. FC Köln register both teams scoring in 75% of relevant matches, Hertha BSC in 62% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
1. FC Köln in-play tendencies (15 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Hertha BSC in-play tendencies (15 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1. FC Köln 60% and Hertha BSC 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Köln 53% | Hertha BSC 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Köln 1.07 xG and Hertha BSC 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Köln attack 0.730 / defence 1.414 | Hertha BSC attack 0.777 / defence 1.203. League average goals — home 1.224 / away 1.515. 1. FC Köln's attack strength of 0.730 is below the league average — the 1.07 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Hertha BSC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.203 — this is suppressing 1. FC Köln's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 1. FC Köln games / 15 Hertha BSC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 23% | Draw 28% | Hertha BSC 49%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Köln 4.35 | Draw 3.57 | Hertha BSC 2.04. Hertha BSC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hertha BSC at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hertha BSC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.74 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Köln 75% | Hertha BSC 62% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Köln vs Hertha BSC | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: RheinEnergieStadion • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Jan 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 23% | Draw 28% | Hertha BSC 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG 1. FC Köln 1.07 / Hertha BSC 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Köln attack 0.730 / def 1.414 | Hertha BSC attack 0.777 / def 1.203 | league avg home 1.224 / away 1.515 • Poisson stance: Hertha BSC (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
1. FC Köln xG
Expected Goals
1.67
Hertha BSC xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Köln vs Hertha BSC kick off?
1. FC Köln vs Hertha BSC kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 16 January 2021 at RheinEnergieStadion.
What was the final score in 1. FC Köln vs Hertha BSC?
1. FC Köln 0 - 0 Hertha BSC.
Where is 1. FC Köln vs Hertha BSC being played?
The match is being played at RheinEnergieStadion.
What competition is 1. FC Köln vs Hertha BSC part of?
1. FC Köln vs Hertha BSC is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Köln vs Hertha BSC?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Köln a 23% chance of winning, Hertha BSC a 49% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Hertha BSC the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Köln vs Hertha BSC?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both 1. FC Köln and Hertha BSC will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Köln vs Hertha BSC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and Hertha BSC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are 1. FC Köln and Hertha BSC in?
1. FC Köln (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Hertha BSC (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from 1. FC Köln's attack rating (0.73) and Hertha BSC's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.07 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hertha BSC's attack versus 1. FC Köln's defence, projects 1.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hertha BSC Win
23%
4.39
28%
3.60
49%
2.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
1. FC Köln xG
Total xG
2.74
1.67
Hertha BSC xG
4.39
23%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
2.02
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
19%
5.29
34%
2.93
Win to Nil
4%
23.20
17%
5.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 10.8 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.6 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.2 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Köln vs Hertha BSC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are 1. FC Köln and Hertha BSC expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for 1. FC Köln and 1.67 for Hertha BSC, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Köln vs Hertha BSC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 15 outings, 1. FC Köln have picked up 0.73 PPG on a 2W 5D 8L record — W-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for 1. FC Köln is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hertha BSC's form line: 4W 4D 7L from 15 games, 1.07 PPG, last five D-D-L-W-L. The sample for Hertha BSC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: 1. FC Köln on 0.73 PPG, Hertha BSC on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, 1. FC Köln have posted 0.25 PPG from 8 outings (0W 2D 6L). That actually lags their 0.73 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Hertha BSC have gone 2W 2D 4L from 8 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hertha BSC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
1. FC Köln are averaging 0.87 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Hertha BSC are on 1.53 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Köln have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Hertha BSC in 60%.
Last 15 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Köln
Blended
Hertha BSC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Köln and Hertha BSC in coming into this match?
1. FC Köln have gone 2W 5D 8L in their last 15 games (0.73 PPG), while Hertha BSC have gone 4W 4D 7L in their last 15 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Köln at home or Hertha BSC away?
Hertha BSC's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Köln at home: 0.25 PPG; Hertha BSC away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Bundesliga, 2. Bundesliga all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 April 2025, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 May 2023, when 1. FC Köln won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
1. FC Köln's record when hosting Hertha BSC specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
1. FC Köln
2
Draws
2
Hertha BSC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and Hertha BSC?
From 8 meetings on record, 1. FC Köln have won 4, Hertha BSC have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Köln and Hertha BSC last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2025, when 1. FC Köln 0-1 Hertha BSC.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Köln and Hertha BSC?
1. FC Köln have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
1. FC Köln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — 1. FC Köln at 75%, Hertha BSC at 62%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for 1. FC Köln and 62% for Hertha BSC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Köln home games / Hertha BSC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Köln play Hertha BSC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of 1. FC Köln's games and 62% of Hertha BSC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1. FC Köln vs Hertha BSC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of 1. FC Köln's matches and 62% of Hertha BSC's.
Do 1. FC Köln and Hertha BSC tend to score early?
1. FC Köln have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Hertha BSC in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at 1. FC Köln's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at RheinEnergieStadion, Regular Season - 16, as 1. FC Köln and Hertha BSC drew 0-0 in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Köln 1.07 xG and Hertha BSC 1.67 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. 1. FC Köln fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Hertha BSC landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Köln attack 0.73 / defence 1.41 against Hertha BSC attack 0.78 / defence 1.20, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Köln 23% | Draw 28% | Hertha BSC 49%, with Hertha BSC to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Köln 53%, Hertha BSC 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Köln's trading profile (15 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Hertha BSC's trading profile (15 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Köln 0.73 PPG, Hertha BSC 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. 1. FC Köln (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line. Hertha BSC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.