1. FC Köln 0-1 FC Augsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Augsburg at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Köln vs FC Augsburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
1. FC Köln and FC Augsburg meet at RheinEnergieStadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 2 January 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
1. FC Köln have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: W D W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Köln, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Köln at RheinEnergieStadion this season: 0W 2D 5L from 7 home games — 0.29 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 2.43 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 86% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.29 lags behind their overall 1.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at RheinEnergieStadion this season.
FC Augsburg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Augsburg away from home this season: 2W 2D 2L from 6 away games — 1.33 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.17 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for 1. FC Köln, 0.90 for FC Augsburg — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — 1. FC Köln have seen both teams score in 86% of their games, FC Augsburg in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
1. FC Köln half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games).
FC Augsburg half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1. FC Köln 69% and FC Augsburg 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Köln 54% | FC Augsburg 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Köln 1.11 xG and FC Augsburg 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Köln attack 0.819 / defence 1.434 | FC Augsburg attack 0.738 / defence 1.129. League average goals — home 1.199 / away 1.569. Data: 13 1. FC Köln games / 13 FC Augsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 22% | Draw 31% | FC Augsburg 47%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Köln 4.55 | Draw 3.23 | FC Augsburg 2.13. FC Augsburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Augsburg at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Augsburg if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Köln 86% | FC Augsburg 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Köln vs FC Augsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: RheinEnergieStadion • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Jan 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 22% | Draw 31% | FC Augsburg 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 58% | xG 1. FC Köln 1.11 / FC Augsburg 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Köln attack 0.819 / def 1.434 | FC Augsburg attack 0.738 / def 1.129 | league avg home 1.199 / away 1.569 • Poisson stance: FC Augsburg (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
1. FC Köln xG
Expected Goals
1.66
FC Augsburg xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Köln vs FC Augsburg kick off?
1. FC Köln vs FC Augsburg kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 2 January 2021 at RheinEnergieStadion.
What was the final score in 1. FC Köln vs FC Augsburg?
1. FC Köln 0 - 1 FC Augsburg.
Where is 1. FC Köln vs FC Augsburg being played?
The match is being played at RheinEnergieStadion.
What competition is 1. FC Köln vs FC Augsburg part of?
1. FC Köln vs FC Augsburg is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Köln vs FC Augsburg?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Köln a 22% chance of winning, FC Augsburg a 47% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making FC Augsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Köln vs FC Augsburg?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both 1. FC Köln and FC Augsburg will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Köln vs FC Augsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and FC Augsburg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are 1. FC Köln and FC Augsburg in?
1. FC Köln (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-L-D. FC Augsburg (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from 1. FC Köln's attack rating (0.82) and FC Augsburg's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC Augsburg's attack (0.74x) against 1. FC Köln's defence (1.43x) — and the away total comes out at 1.66.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Augsburg Win
22%
4.55
31%
3.20
47%
2.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
1. FC Köln xG
Total xG
2.77
1.66
FC Augsburg xG
4.55
22%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
2.14
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
19%
5.25
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
4%
23.91
15%
6.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 10.4 | 8.6 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.6 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.4 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Köln vs FC Augsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are 1. FC Köln and FC Augsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for 1. FC Köln and 1.66 for FC Augsburg, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Köln vs FC Augsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 13 outings, 1. FC Köln have picked up 0.85 PPG on a 2W 5D 6L record — W-D-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for 1. FC Köln is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Augsburg's form line: 4W 4D 5L from 13 games, 1.23 PPG, last five D-L-D-W-L. The sample for FC Augsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.85 PPG for 1. FC Köln against 1.23 for FC Augsburg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, 1. FC Köln have posted 0.33 PPG from 6 outings (0W 2D 4L). That actually lags their 0.85 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, FC Augsburg have gone 2W 2D 2L from 6 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Augsburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
1. FC Köln are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; FC Augsburg are on 1.15 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Köln have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 13 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Köln
Blended
FC Augsburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Köln and FC Augsburg in coming into this match?
1. FC Köln have gone 2W 5D 6L in their last 13 games (0.85 PPG), while FC Augsburg have gone 4W 4D 5L in their last 13 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Köln at home or FC Augsburg away?
FC Augsburg's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Köln at home: 0.33 PPG; FC Augsburg away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since January 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: 1. FC Köln won 1-4 on 30 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1. FC Köln have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC Augsburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
1. FC Köln
3
Draws
3
FC Augsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and FC Augsburg?
From 10 meetings on record, 1. FC Köln have won 4, FC Augsburg have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Köln and FC Augsburg last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when FC Augsburg 2-0 1. FC Köln.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Köln and FC Augsburg?
1. FC Köln have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
1. FC Köln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 83% for 1. FC Köln, 67% for FC Augsburg — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for 1. FC Köln and 50% for FC Augsburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Augsburg in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Köln home games / FC Augsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Köln play FC Augsburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of 1. FC Köln's games and 67% of FC Augsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1. FC Köln vs FC Augsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of 1. FC Köln's matches and 50% of FC Augsburg's.
Do 1. FC Köln and FC Augsburg tend to score early?
1. FC Köln have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, FC Augsburg in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Augsburg edge out 1. FC Köln 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Augsburg beat 1. FC Köln 0-1 at RheinEnergieStadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Köln 1.11 xG and FC Augsburg 1.66 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. 1. FC Köln fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Köln attack 0.82 / defence 1.43 against FC Augsburg attack 0.74 / defence 1.13, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Köln 22% | Draw 31% | FC Augsburg 47%, with FC Augsburg to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Köln 54%, FC Augsburg 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Köln's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Augsburg's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Köln 0.85 PPG, FC Augsburg 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Augsburg win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Köln (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.