1. FC Köln 0-4 Bayer Leverkusen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bayer Leverkusen at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this 1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bayer Leverkusen make the trip to RheinEnergieStadion to face 1. FC Köln in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Wednesday 16 December 2020 at 19:30 UTC.
Current Form
1. FC Köln's overall Bundesliga record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D L W D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Köln, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Köln's home record at RheinEnergieStadion: 0W 2D 4L from 6 Bundesliga appearances (0.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 2.17 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.33 lags behind their overall 1.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at RheinEnergieStadion this season.
Bayer Leverkusen have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 7W 3D 0L. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bayer Leverkusen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Bayer Leverkusen have posted 4W 2D 0L from 6 away outings — 2.33 PPG. They are averaging 1.83 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 3 away clean sheets from 6 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Bayer Leverkusen arrive in superior form — a 1.40 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading & In-Play
1. FC Köln — key trading statistics (11 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games).
Bayer Leverkusen — key trading statistics (11 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1. FC Köln 82% and Bayer Leverkusen 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Köln 54% | Bayer Leverkusen 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Köln 1.02 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 2.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Köln attack 0.853 / defence 1.303 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 0.965 / defence 0.927. League average goals — home 1.291 / away 1.611. Data: 11 1. FC Köln games / 11 Bayer Leverkusen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 15% | Draw 27% | Bayer Leverkusen 58%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Köln 6.67 | Draw 3.70 | Bayer Leverkusen 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Bayer Leverkusen (58%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bayer Leverkusen as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.05 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Köln 100% | Bayer Leverkusen 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: RheinEnergieStadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 16 Dec 2020, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 15% | Draw 27% | Bayer Leverkusen 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 58% | xG 1. FC Köln 1.02 / Bayer Leverkusen 2.03 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Köln attack 0.853 / def 1.303 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 0.965 / def 0.927 | league avg home 1.291 / away 1.611 • Poisson stance: Bayer Leverkusen (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
1. FC Köln xG
Expected Goals
2.03
Bayer Leverkusen xG
58%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen kick off?
1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen kicked off at 19:30 on Wednesday 16 December 2020 at RheinEnergieStadion.
What was the final score in 1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen?
1. FC Köln 0 - 4 Bayer Leverkusen.
Where is 1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen being played?
The match is being played at RheinEnergieStadion.
What competition is 1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen part of?
1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Köln a 15% chance of winning, Bayer Leverkusen a 58% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Bayer Leverkusen the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both 1. FC Köln and Bayer Leverkusen will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and Bayer Leverkusen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are 1. FC Köln and Bayer Leverkusen in?
1. FC Köln (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-D-W. Bayer Leverkusen (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates 1. FC Köln's attack at 0.85x the league average against Bayer Leverkusen's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.02 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bayer Leverkusen's attack (0.96x) against 1. FC Köln's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 2.03.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (10.0%), 0-2 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayer Leverkusen Win
15%
6.48
27%
3.72
58%
1.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
10.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
9.8%
Away win
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
1. FC Köln xG
Total xG
3.05
2.03
Bayer Leverkusen xG
6.48
15%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
1.73
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
13%
7.58
36%
2.77
Win to Nil
2%
49.12
21%
4.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 9.6 | 9.8 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 9.8 | 10.0 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are 1. FC Köln and Bayer Leverkusen expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for 1. FC Köln and 2.03 for Bayer Leverkusen, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
1. FC Köln come into this having played 11 games, going 2W 4D 5L for 0.91 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-D-W. The sample for 1. FC Köln is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bayer Leverkusen sit at 2.27 PPG from 11 outings (7W 4D 0L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Bayer Leverkusen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bayer Leverkusen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.36 PPG clear of 1. FC Köln — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
1. FC Köln's home form reads 0W 2D 4L across 6 games on their own ground, a 0.33 PPG return. That actually lags their 0.91 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Bayer Leverkusen have taken 2.33 points per game from 6 outings (4W 2D 0L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bayer Leverkusen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
1. FC Köln are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Bayer Leverkusen are on 2.09 scored and 0.91 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Köln have seen both teams score in 82% of their recent games; Bayer Leverkusen in 64%.
Defensively: Bayer Leverkusen in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Köln
Blended
Bayer Leverkusen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Köln and Bayer Leverkusen in coming into this match?
1. FC Köln have gone 2W 4D 5L in their last 11 games (0.91 PPG), while Bayer Leverkusen have gone 7W 4D 0L in their last 11 (2.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Köln at home or Bayer Leverkusen away?
Bayer Leverkusen's away record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Köln at home: 0.33 PPG; Bayer Leverkusen away: 2.33 PPG.
Have 1. FC Köln or Bayer Leverkusen been keeping clean sheets recently?
1. FC Köln have kept a clean sheet in 9% of their recent games, Bayer Leverkusen in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Bayer Leverkusen have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bayer Leverkusen won 0-4 on 16 Dec 2020, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1. FC Köln have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bayer Leverkusen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
1. FC Köln
1
Draws
7
Bayer Leverkusen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and Bayer Leverkusen?
From 10 meetings on record, 1. FC Köln have won 2, Bayer Leverkusen have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Köln and Bayer Leverkusen last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when 1. FC Köln 1-2 Bayer Leverkusen.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Köln and Bayer Leverkusen?
Bayer Leverkusen have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
1. FC Köln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 83% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for 1. FC Köln, 50% for Bayer Leverkusen — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for 1. FC Köln and 50% for Bayer Leverkusen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bayer Leverkusen in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Köln home games / Bayer Leverkusen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Köln play Bayer Leverkusen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of 1. FC Köln's games and 50% of Bayer Leverkusen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of 1. FC Köln's matches and 50% of Bayer Leverkusen's.
Do 1. FC Köln and Bayer Leverkusen tend to score early?
1. FC Köln have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Bayer Leverkusen in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bayer Leverkusen run riot with a 0-4 hammering of 1. FC Köln.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bayer Leverkusen beat 1. FC Köln 0-4 at RheinEnergieStadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Köln 1.02 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 2.03 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. 1. FC Köln fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Bayer Leverkusen outscored their 2.03 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Köln attack 0.85 / defence 1.30 against Bayer Leverkusen attack 0.96 / defence 0.93, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Köln 15% | Draw 27% | Bayer Leverkusen 58%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Köln 54%, Bayer Leverkusen 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 73%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Köln's trading profile (11 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 82% of their matches — today it did not.
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (11 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Bayer Leverkusen arrived the stronger side — 2.27 PPG against 0.91. That form edge translated into the three points. 1. FC Köln (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.83 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.