VfL Bochum 0-0 SC Paderborn 07 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VfL Bochum at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this VfL Bochum vs SC Paderborn 07 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees SC Paderborn 07 travel to Vonovia Ruhrstadion to take on VfL Bochum. The game is scheduled for Sunday 15 February 2026, 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
VfL Bochum — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: D D D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for VfL Bochum, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Vonovia Ruhrstadion, VfL Bochum have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, SC Paderborn 07 have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Paderborn 07's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — VfL Bochum at 1.70 PPG versus SC Paderborn 07's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for VfL Bochum, 1 for SC Paderborn 07 and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2025, ended 0–1 with SC Paderborn 07 winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
VfL Bochum in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
SC Paderborn 07 in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VfL Bochum 53% versus SC Paderborn 07 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfL Bochum 47% | SC Paderborn 07 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfL Bochum 1.48 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfL Bochum attack 1.059 / defence 1.046 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.995 / defence 0.934. League average goals — home 1.500 / away 1.345. Data: 21 VfL Bochum games / 55 SC Paderborn 07 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfL Bochum 38% | Draw 28% | SC Paderborn 07 34%. Fair-value odds: VfL Bochum 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | SC Paderborn 07 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.48 / 1.40) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates VfL Bochum as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on VfL Bochum offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.88 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: VfL Bochum 50% | SC Paderborn 07 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfL Bochum vs SC Paderborn 07 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Vonovia Ruhrstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Feb 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfL Bochum 38% | Draw 28% | SC Paderborn 07 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 60% | xG VfL Bochum 1.48 / SC Paderborn 07 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: VfL Bochum attack 1.059 / def 1.046 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.995 / def 0.934 | league avg home 1.500 / away 1.345 • Poisson stance: VfL Bochum (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
VfL Bochum xG
Expected Goals
1.40
SC Paderborn 07 xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfL Bochum vs SC Paderborn 07 kick off?
VfL Bochum vs SC Paderborn 07 kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 15 February 2026 at Vonovia Ruhrstadion.
What was the final score in VfL Bochum vs SC Paderborn 07?
VfL Bochum 0 - 0 SC Paderborn 07.
Where is VfL Bochum vs SC Paderborn 07 being played?
The match is being played at Vonovia Ruhrstadion.
What competition is VfL Bochum vs SC Paderborn 07 part of?
VfL Bochum vs SC Paderborn 07 is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfL Bochum vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our statistical model gives VfL Bochum a 38% chance of winning, SC Paderborn 07 a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making VfL Bochum the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfL Bochum vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both VfL Bochum and SC Paderborn 07 will score (BTTS).
Will VfL Bochum vs SC Paderborn 07 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Bochum and SC Paderborn 07?
Record (1 meetings): VfL Bochum 0W | Draws 0 | SC Paderborn 07 1W.
What form are VfL Bochum and SC Paderborn 07 in?
VfL Bochum (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-D-W-D. SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
VfL Bochum's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against SC Paderborn 07's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.48. The same calculation in reverse, SC Paderborn 07's attack versus VfL Bochum's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VfL Bochum Win
38%
2.62
28%
3.62
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
VfL Bochum xG
Total xG
2.88
1.40
SC Paderborn 07 xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
25%
4.05
23%
4.41
Win to Nil
9%
10.63
8%
12.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.8 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.6 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.6 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfL Bochum vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are VfL Bochum and SC Paderborn 07 expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for VfL Bochum and 1.40 for SC Paderborn 07, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for VfL Bochum vs SC Paderborn 07?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
VfL Bochum's recent record stands at 12W 14D 29L from 55 games, a 0.91 PPG return, with D-D-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for VfL Bochum is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SC Paderborn 07, meanwhile, have gone 27W 13D 15L across 55 games — 1.71 PPG, with D-L-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for SC Paderborn 07 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours SC Paderborn 07 by 0.80 — a real, if not enormous, edge over VfL Bochum heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, VfL Bochum have managed 8W 6D 13L from 27 games — 1.11 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SC Paderborn 07's away record stands at 12W 9D 6L across 27 trips, a 1.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Paderborn 07 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
VfL Bochum are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; SC Paderborn 07 are on 1.62 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Paderborn 07 in 65%.
Last 55 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfL Bochum
Blended
SC Paderborn 07
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfL Bochum and SC Paderborn 07 in coming into this match?
VfL Bochum have gone 12W 14D 29L in their last 55 games (0.91 PPG), while SC Paderborn 07 have gone 27W 13D 15L in their last 55 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfL Bochum at home or SC Paderborn 07 away?
SC Paderborn 07's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfL Bochum at home: 1.11 PPG; SC Paderborn 07 away: 1.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between VfL Bochum and SC Paderborn 07 runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
VfL Bochum
1
Draws
1
SC Paderborn 07
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Bochum and SC Paderborn 07?
From 2 meetings on record, VfL Bochum have won 0, SC Paderborn 07 have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did VfL Bochum and SC Paderborn 07 last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when VfL Bochum 0-0 SC Paderborn 07.
Who has won more matches between VfL Bochum and SC Paderborn 07?
SC Paderborn 07 have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
VfL Bochum are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VfL Bochum 48%, SC Paderborn 07 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (VfL Bochum) and 52% (SC Paderborn 07).
On the defensive side: VfL Bochum have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfL Bochum home games / SC Paderborn 07 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfL Bochum play SC Paderborn 07?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of VfL Bochum's recent matches and 59% of SC Paderborn 07's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is VfL Bochum vs SC Paderborn 07 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of VfL Bochum's recent games and 52% of SC Paderborn 07's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do VfL Bochum and SC Paderborn 07 tend to score early?
VfL Bochum have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, SC Paderborn 07 in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at VfL Bochum's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Vonovia Ruhrstadion, Regular Season - 22, as VfL Bochum and SC Paderborn 07 drew 0-0 in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfL Bochum 1.48 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.40 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. VfL Bochum fell 1.5 short of their projected output. SC Paderborn 07 landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfL Bochum attack 1.06 / defence 1.05 against SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.99 / defence 0.93, drawn from 21/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfL Bochum 38% | Draw 28% | SC Paderborn 07 34%, with VfL Bochum to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfL Bochum 47%, SC Paderborn 07 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfL Bochum's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Paderborn 07 arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 0.91. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. VfL Bochum (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.