SV Wehen 3-1 Hertha BSC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hertha BSC at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this SV Wehen vs Hertha BSC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SV Wehen and Hertha BSC meet at BRITA-Arena in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 27 January 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
SV Wehen's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SV Wehen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SV Wehen's home record at BRITA-Arena: 4W 3D 2L from 9 2. Bundesliga appearances (1.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Hertha BSC (all games): 4W 5D 1L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: D W W D D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Hertha BSC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Hertha BSC have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for SV Wehen, 0 for Hertha BSC and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Aug 2023, ended 1–0 with SV Wehen winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
SV Wehen half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Hertha BSC half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 55% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SV Wehen 55% and Hertha BSC 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Wehen 40% | Hertha BSC 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Wehen 1.30 xG and Hertha BSC 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Wehen attack 0.722 / defence 1.108 | Hertha BSC attack 0.962 / defence 1.121. League average goals — home 1.611 / away 1.388. SV Wehen's attack strength of 0.722 is below the league average — the 1.30 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 18 SV Wehen games / 18 Hertha BSC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SV Wehen 33% | Draw 25% | Hertha BSC 41%. Fair-value odds: SV Wehen 3.03 | Draw 4.00 | Hertha BSC 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hertha BSC at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hertha BSC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.78 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SV Wehen 56% | Hertha BSC 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Wehen vs Hertha BSC | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: BRITA-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Jan 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Wehen 33% | Draw 25% | Hertha BSC 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG SV Wehen 1.30 / Hertha BSC 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: SV Wehen attack 0.722 / def 1.108 | Hertha BSC attack 0.962 / def 1.121 | league avg home 1.611 / away 1.388 • Poisson stance: Hertha BSC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
SV Wehen xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Hertha BSC xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Wehen vs Hertha BSC kick off?
SV Wehen vs Hertha BSC kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 27 January 2024 at BRITA-Arena.
What was the final score in SV Wehen vs Hertha BSC?
SV Wehen 3 - 1 Hertha BSC.
Where is SV Wehen vs Hertha BSC being played?
The match is being played at BRITA-Arena.
What competition is SV Wehen vs Hertha BSC part of?
SV Wehen vs Hertha BSC is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Wehen vs Hertha BSC?
Our statistical model gives SV Wehen a 33% chance of winning, Hertha BSC a 41% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Hertha BSC the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Wehen vs Hertha BSC?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both SV Wehen and Hertha BSC will score (BTTS).
Will SV Wehen vs Hertha BSC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Wehen and Hertha BSC?
Record (1 meetings): SV Wehen 1W | Draws 0 | Hertha BSC 0W.
What form are SV Wehen and Hertha BSC in?
SV Wehen (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Hertha BSC (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
SV Wehen's attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against Hertha BSC's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. Flip it around — Hertha BSC's attack (0.96x) against SV Wehen's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.48.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hertha BSC Win
33%
3.00
25%
3.96
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
SV Wehen xG
Total xG
2.78
1.48
Hertha BSC xG
3.00
33%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
23%
4.39
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
8%
13.16
11%
8.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 9.1 | 6.8 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.9 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.8 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Wehen vs Hertha BSC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are SV Wehen and Hertha BSC expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for SV Wehen and 1.48 for Hertha BSC, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Wehen vs Hertha BSC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 20 outings, SV Wehen have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 8W 4D 8L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for SV Wehen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hertha BSC's form line: 8W 6D 6L from 20 games, 1.50 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-D. The sample for Hertha BSC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for SV Wehen against 1.50 for Hertha BSC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, SV Wehen have posted 1.67 PPG from 9 outings (4W 3D 2L).
On the road, Hertha BSC have gone 3W 2D 4L from 9 away games — 1.22 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SV Wehen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SV Wehen are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Hertha BSC are on 1.90 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hertha BSC in 65%.
Last 20 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Wehen
Blended
Hertha BSC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SV Wehen and Hertha BSC in coming into this match?
SV Wehen have gone 8W 4D 8L in their last 20 games (1.40 PPG), while Hertha BSC have gone 8W 6D 6L in their last 20 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Wehen at home or Hertha BSC away?
SV Wehen's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Wehen at home: 1.67 PPG; Hertha BSC away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since August 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 January 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
SV Wehen
0
Draws
0
Hertha BSC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SV Wehen and Hertha BSC?
From 2 meetings on record, SV Wehen have won 2, Hertha BSC have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SV Wehen and Hertha BSC last play each other?
They last met on 27 January 2024, when SV Wehen 3-1 Hertha BSC.
Who has won more matches between SV Wehen and Hertha BSC?
SV Wehen have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SV Wehen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Wehen 56%, Hertha BSC 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (SV Wehen) and 78% (Hertha BSC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SV Wehen keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Hertha BSC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Wehen home games / Hertha BSC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SV Wehen play Hertha BSC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of SV Wehen's games and 67% of Hertha BSC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SV Wehen vs Hertha BSC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 33% of SV Wehen's matches and 78% of Hertha BSC's.
Do SV Wehen and Hertha BSC tend to score early?
SV Wehen have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Hertha BSC in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SV Wehen cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Hertha BSC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SV Wehen beat Hertha BSC 3-1 at BRITA-Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Wehen 1.30 xG and Hertha BSC 1.48 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. SV Wehen beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Wehen attack 0.72 / defence 1.11 against Hertha BSC attack 0.96 / defence 1.12, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Wehen 33% | Draw 25% | Hertha BSC 41%, with Hertha BSC to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual SV Wehen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Wehen 40%, Hertha BSC 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Wehen's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Hertha BSC's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SV Wehen 1.40 PPG, Hertha BSC 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SV Wehen win broke the near-deadlock. SV Wehen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm. Hertha BSC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.