SV Sandhausen 0-2 FC Ingolstadt 04 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SV Sandhausen at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SV Sandhausen vs FC Ingolstadt 04 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees FC Ingolstadt 04 travel to BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald to take on SV Sandhausen. The game is scheduled for Friday 27 August 2021, 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SV Sandhausen stand at 1W 1D 2L from 4 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D W. They are averaging 0.75 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. SV Sandhausen have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, FC Ingolstadt 04 have recorded 0W 1D 3L from 4 outings — 0.25 PPG. Last five: L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.75 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.75 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings suggests some defensive organisation. FC Ingolstadt 04 have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SV Sandhausen are in the better shape of the two on current 2. Bundesliga data — 0.75 PPG ahead (1.00 vs 0.25). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Data
SV Sandhausen trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 75% of games.
FC Ingolstadt 04 trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SV Sandhausen 25% versus FC Ingolstadt 04 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Sandhausen 50% | FC Ingolstadt 04 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Sandhausen 1.31 xG and FC Ingolstadt 04 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Sandhausen attack 0.670 / defence 1.058 | FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 0.702 / defence 1.837. League average goals — home 1.062 / away 1.388. SV Sandhausen's attack strength of 0.670 is below the league average — the 1.31 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. FC Ingolstadt 04 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.837 — this is suppressing SV Sandhausen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 4 SV Sandhausen games / 4 FC Ingolstadt 04 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SV Sandhausen 39% | Draw 36% | FC Ingolstadt 04 25%. Fair-value odds: SV Sandhausen 2.56 | Draw 2.78 | FC Ingolstadt 04 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SV Sandhausen are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SV Sandhausen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.34 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. This conflicts with form data: SV Sandhausen 25% | FC Ingolstadt 04 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Sandhausen vs FC Ingolstadt 04 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald • Kick-off: Friday 27 Aug 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Sandhausen 39% | Draw 36% | FC Ingolstadt 04 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 51% | xG SV Sandhausen 1.31 / FC Ingolstadt 04 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: SV Sandhausen attack 0.670 / def 1.058 | FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 0.702 / def 1.837 | league avg home 1.062 / away 1.388 • Poisson stance: SV Sandhausen (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
SV Sandhausen xG
Expected Goals
1.03
FC Ingolstadt 04 xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Sandhausen vs FC Ingolstadt 04 kick off?
SV Sandhausen vs FC Ingolstadt 04 kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 27 August 2021 at BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald.
What was the final score in SV Sandhausen vs FC Ingolstadt 04?
SV Sandhausen 0 - 2 FC Ingolstadt 04.
Where is SV Sandhausen vs FC Ingolstadt 04 being played?
The match is being played at BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald.
What competition is SV Sandhausen vs FC Ingolstadt 04 part of?
SV Sandhausen vs FC Ingolstadt 04 is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Sandhausen vs FC Ingolstadt 04?
Our statistical model gives SV Sandhausen a 39% chance of winning, FC Ingolstadt 04 a 25% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making SV Sandhausen the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Sandhausen vs FC Ingolstadt 04?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both SV Sandhausen and FC Ingolstadt 04 will score (BTTS).
Will SV Sandhausen vs FC Ingolstadt 04 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Sandhausen and FC Ingolstadt 04?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SV Sandhausen and FC Ingolstadt 04 in?
SV Sandhausen (all comps): 1W-1D-2L in 4 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.75 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-W. FC Ingolstadt 04 (all comps): 0W-1D-3L in 4 | 0.25 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.75 | L5 L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
SV Sandhausen's attacking strength (0.67x league average) is weighed against FC Ingolstadt 04's defensive record (1.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.31. The same calculation in reverse, FC Ingolstadt 04's attack versus SV Sandhausen's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Sandhausen Win
39%
2.57
36%
2.81
25%
3.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
SV Sandhausen xG
Total xG
2.34
1.03
FC Ingolstadt 04 xG
2.57
39%
Home win
2.81
36%
Draw
3.93
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
27%
3.70
Win to Nil
14%
7.19
7%
14.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 10.0 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.0 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.5 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Sandhausen vs FC Ingolstadt 04?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are SV Sandhausen and FC Ingolstadt 04 expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for SV Sandhausen and 1.03 for FC Ingolstadt 04, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Sandhausen vs FC Ingolstadt 04?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SV Sandhausen come into this having played 4 games, going 1W 1D 2L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for SV Sandhausen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, FC Ingolstadt 04 sit at 0.25 PPG from 4 outings (0W 1D 3L), a run that reads L-L-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for FC Ingolstadt 04, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
SV Sandhausen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.75 PPG clear of FC Ingolstadt 04 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
SV Sandhausen are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; FC Ingolstadt 04 are on 0.50 scored and 2.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SV Sandhausen have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games.
Last 4 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Sandhausen
Early Season
FC Ingolstadt 04
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SV Sandhausen and FC Ingolstadt 04 in coming into this match?
SV Sandhausen have gone 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 games (1.00 PPG), while FC Ingolstadt 04 have gone 0W 1D 3L in their last 4 (0.25 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
SV Sandhausen
1
Draws
1
FC Ingolstadt 04
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SV Sandhausen and FC Ingolstadt 04?
From 2 meetings on record, SV Sandhausen have won 0, FC Ingolstadt 04 have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SV Sandhausen and FC Ingolstadt 04 last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2022, when FC Ingolstadt 04 0-0 SV Sandhausen.
Who has won more matches between SV Sandhausen and FC Ingolstadt 04?
FC Ingolstadt 04 have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SV Sandhausen tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
FC Ingolstadt 04 see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Sandhausen 25%, FC Ingolstadt 04 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for SV Sandhausen and 75% for FC Ingolstadt 04. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SV Sandhausen have failed to score in 75% of games; FC Ingolstadt 04 in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Sandhausen home games / FC Ingolstadt 04 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SV Sandhausen play FC Ingolstadt 04?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of SV Sandhausen's recent matches and 50% of FC Ingolstadt 04's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SV Sandhausen vs FC Ingolstadt 04 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of SV Sandhausen's matches and 75% of FC Ingolstadt 04's.
Do SV Sandhausen and FC Ingolstadt 04 tend to score early?
SV Sandhausen have had a goal before half-time in 25% of their recent matches, FC Ingolstadt 04 in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Ingolstadt 04 cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over SV Sandhausen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Ingolstadt 04 beat SV Sandhausen 0-2 at BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald, Regular Season - 5, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Sandhausen 1.31 xG and FC Ingolstadt 04 1.03 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. SV Sandhausen fell 1.3 short of their projected output. FC Ingolstadt 04 outscored their 1.03 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Sandhausen attack 0.67 / defence 1.06 against FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 0.70 / defence 1.84, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Sandhausen 39% | Draw 36% | FC Ingolstadt 04 25%, with SV Sandhausen to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a FC Ingolstadt 04 win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Sandhausen 50%, FC Ingolstadt 04 75%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Sandhausen's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 75% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FC Ingolstadt 04's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, SV Sandhausen arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.25. Form was overturned, with FC Ingolstadt 04 winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC Ingolstadt 04 scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.