SV Sandhausen 1-0 1. FC Magdeburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SV Sandhausen at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this SV Sandhausen vs 1. FC Magdeburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
1. FC Magdeburg make the trip to BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald to face SV Sandhausen in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Sunday 9 October 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
SV Sandhausen (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D D L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SV Sandhausen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SV Sandhausen's home record at BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald: 4W 2D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
1. FC Magdeburg's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Magdeburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Magdeburg's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 3L across 5 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for SV Sandhausen, 1.00 for 1. FC Magdeburg — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — SV Sandhausen have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, 1. FC Magdeburg in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
SV Sandhausen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
1. FC Magdeburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SV Sandhausen 70% and 1. FC Magdeburg 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SV Sandhausen 50% | 1. FC Magdeburg 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Sandhausen 1.83 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Sandhausen attack 0.867 / defence 1.021 | 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.989 / defence 1.362. League average goals — home 1.550 / away 1.298. 1. FC Magdeburg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.362 — this is suppressing SV Sandhausen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 SV Sandhausen games / 10 1. FC Magdeburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SV Sandhausen 48% | Draw 26% | 1. FC Magdeburg 26%. Fair-value odds: SV Sandhausen 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | 1. FC Magdeburg 3.85. SV Sandhausen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.83 / 1.31) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SV Sandhausen as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SV Sandhausen if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.14 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SV Sandhausen 70% | 1. FC Magdeburg 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Sandhausen vs 1. FC Magdeburg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Oct 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Sandhausen 48% | Draw 26% | 1. FC Magdeburg 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG SV Sandhausen 1.83 / 1. FC Magdeburg 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: SV Sandhausen attack 0.867 / def 1.021 | 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.989 / def 1.362 | league avg home 1.550 / away 1.298 • Poisson stance: SV Sandhausen (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
SV Sandhausen xG
Expected Goals
1.31
1. FC Magdeburg xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Sandhausen vs 1. FC Magdeburg kick off?
SV Sandhausen vs 1. FC Magdeburg kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 9 October 2022 at BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald.
What was the final score in SV Sandhausen vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
SV Sandhausen 1 - 0 1. FC Magdeburg.
Where is SV Sandhausen vs 1. FC Magdeburg being played?
The match is being played at BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald.
What competition is SV Sandhausen vs 1. FC Magdeburg part of?
SV Sandhausen vs 1. FC Magdeburg is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Sandhausen vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our statistical model gives SV Sandhausen a 48% chance of winning, 1. FC Magdeburg a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making SV Sandhausen the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Sandhausen vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both SV Sandhausen and 1. FC Magdeburg will score (BTTS).
Will SV Sandhausen vs 1. FC Magdeburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Sandhausen and 1. FC Magdeburg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SV Sandhausen and 1. FC Magdeburg in?
SV Sandhausen (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-L-D. 1. FC Magdeburg (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
SV Sandhausen's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against 1. FC Magdeburg's defensive record (1.36x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.83. Flip it around — 1. FC Magdeburg's attack (0.99x) against SV Sandhausen's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 44/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Sandhausen Win
48%
2.07
26%
3.91
26%
3.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
SV Sandhausen xG
Total xG
3.14
1.31
1. FC Magdeburg xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
3.83
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.68
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
16%
6.24
Win to Nil
13%
7.67
4%
23.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.7 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 10.4 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.8 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Sandhausen vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are SV Sandhausen and 1. FC Magdeburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for SV Sandhausen and 1.31 for 1. FC Magdeburg, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Sandhausen vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
SV Sandhausen come into this having played 10 games, going 2W 3D 5L for 0.90 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-L-D. The sample for SV Sandhausen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, 1. FC Magdeburg sit at 1.00 PPG from 10 outings (3W 1D 6L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for 1. FC Magdeburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.90 PPG for SV Sandhausen against 1.00 for 1. FC Magdeburg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
SV Sandhausen's home form reads 2W 1D 2L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.90 PPG overall — SV Sandhausen are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, 1. FC Magdeburg have taken 0.80 points per game from 5 outings (1W 1D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SV Sandhausen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
SV Sandhausen are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Magdeburg are on 1.30 scored and 2.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SV Sandhausen have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; 1. FC Magdeburg in 60%.
Last 10 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Sandhausen
Blended
1. FC Magdeburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SV Sandhausen and 1. FC Magdeburg in coming into this match?
SV Sandhausen have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 games (0.90 PPG), while 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 3W 1D 6L in their last 10 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Sandhausen at home or 1. FC Magdeburg away?
SV Sandhausen's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Sandhausen at home: 1.40 PPG; 1. FC Magdeburg away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
SV Sandhausen
0
Draws
0
1. FC Magdeburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SV Sandhausen and 1. FC Magdeburg?
From 2 meetings on record, SV Sandhausen have won 2, 1. FC Magdeburg have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SV Sandhausen and 1. FC Magdeburg last play each other?
They last met on 15 April 2023, when 1. FC Magdeburg 1-2 SV Sandhausen.
Who has won more matches between SV Sandhausen and 1. FC Magdeburg?
SV Sandhausen have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SV Sandhausen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
1. FC Magdeburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Sandhausen 60%, 1. FC Magdeburg 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for SV Sandhausen and 80% for 1. FC Magdeburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SV Sandhausen keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; 1. FC Magdeburg in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Sandhausen home games / 1. FC Magdeburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SV Sandhausen play 1. FC Magdeburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of SV Sandhausen's games and 60% of 1. FC Magdeburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SV Sandhausen vs 1. FC Magdeburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of SV Sandhausen's matches and 80% of 1. FC Magdeburg's.
Do SV Sandhausen and 1. FC Magdeburg tend to score early?
SV Sandhausen have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, 1. FC Magdeburg in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SV Sandhausen edge out 1. FC Magdeburg 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SV Sandhausen beat 1. FC Magdeburg 1-0 at BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald, Regular Season - 11, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Sandhausen 1.83 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 1.31 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. SV Sandhausen fell 0.8 short of their projected output. 1. FC Magdeburg landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Sandhausen attack 0.87 / defence 1.02 against 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.99 / defence 1.36, drawn from 44/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Sandhausen 48% | Draw 26% | 1. FC Magdeburg 26%, with SV Sandhausen to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Sandhausen 50%, 1. FC Magdeburg 80%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Sandhausen's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SV Sandhausen 0.90 PPG, 1. FC Magdeburg 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SV Sandhausen win broke the near-deadlock. SV Sandhausen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. 1. FC Magdeburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.60 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.