SV Elversberg 0-3 Hertha BSC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SV Elversberg at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SV Elversberg vs Hertha BSC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Hertha BSC travel to Waldstadion Kaiserlinde to take on SV Elversberg. The game is scheduled for Saturday 7 February 2026, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SV Elversberg stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SV Elversberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SV Elversberg's home record at Waldstadion Kaiserlinde: 5W 4D 1L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Waldstadion Kaiserlinde.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Hertha BSC have recorded 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Hertha BSC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hertha BSC's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: SV Elversberg 1.60 PPG, Hertha BSC 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
SV Elversberg hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 5 previous encounters compared to 1 for Hertha BSC, with 0 draws in between.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.6 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2025, ended 2–0 with SV Elversberg winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both SV Elversberg and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 4.6 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
SV Elversberg in-play tendencies (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Hertha BSC in-play tendencies (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SV Elversberg 54% versus Hertha BSC 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Elversberg 57% | Hertha BSC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Elversberg 1.40 xG and Hertha BSC 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Elversberg attack 1.029 / defence 0.769 | Hertha BSC attack 1.139 / defence 0.939. League average goals — home 1.453 / away 1.330. SV Elversberg's defence rating of 0.769 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 54 SV Elversberg games / 54 Hertha BSC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SV Elversberg 41% | Draw 29% | Hertha BSC 30%. Fair-value odds: SV Elversberg 2.44 | Draw 3.45 | Hertha BSC 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SV Elversberg at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SV Elversberg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.57 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 4.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: SV Elversberg 50% | Hertha BSC 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Elversberg vs Hertha BSC | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Waldstadion Kaiserlinde • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Feb 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Elversberg 41% | Draw 29% | Hertha BSC 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG SV Elversberg 1.40 / Hertha BSC 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: SV Elversberg attack 1.029 / def 0.769 | Hertha BSC attack 1.139 / def 0.939 | league avg home 1.453 / away 1.330 • Poisson stance: SV Elversberg (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
SV Elversberg xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Hertha BSC xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Elversberg vs Hertha BSC kick off?
SV Elversberg vs Hertha BSC kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 7 February 2026 at Waldstadion Kaiserlinde.
What was the final score in SV Elversberg vs Hertha BSC?
SV Elversberg 0 - 3 Hertha BSC.
Where is SV Elversberg vs Hertha BSC being played?
The match is being played at Waldstadion Kaiserlinde.
What competition is SV Elversberg vs Hertha BSC part of?
SV Elversberg vs Hertha BSC is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Elversberg vs Hertha BSC?
Our statistical model gives SV Elversberg a 41% chance of winning, Hertha BSC a 30% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making SV Elversberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Elversberg vs Hertha BSC?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both SV Elversberg and Hertha BSC will score (BTTS).
Will SV Elversberg vs Hertha BSC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Elversberg and Hertha BSC?
Record (5 meetings): SV Elversberg 4W | Draws 0 | Hertha BSC 1W.
What form are SV Elversberg and Hertha BSC in?
SV Elversberg (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-D-W. Hertha BSC (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates SV Elversberg's attack at 1.03x the league average against Hertha BSC's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hertha BSC's attack versus SV Elversberg's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Elversberg Win
41%
2.43
29%
3.47
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
SV Elversberg xG
Total xG
2.57
1.17
Hertha BSC xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
25%
4.07
Win to Nil
13%
7.79
7%
13.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 8.9 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.5 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.8 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Elversberg vs Hertha BSC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are SV Elversberg and Hertha BSC expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for SV Elversberg and 1.17 for Hertha BSC, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Elversberg vs Hertha BSC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 54 outings, SV Elversberg have picked up 1.76 PPG on a 27W 14D 13L record — W-D-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for SV Elversberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hertha BSC's form line: 20W 15D 19L from 54 games, 1.39 PPG, last five D-D-D-D-D. The sample for Hertha BSC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: SV Elversberg on 1.76 PPG, Hertha BSC on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, SV Elversberg have posted 1.85 PPG from 26 outings (14W 6D 6L).
On the road, Hertha BSC have gone 12W 6D 8L from 26 away games — 1.62 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
SV Elversberg are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Hertha BSC are on 1.37 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Defensively: SV Elversberg have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Elversberg
Blended
Hertha BSC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SV Elversberg and Hertha BSC in coming into this match?
SV Elversberg have gone 27W 14D 13L in their last 54 games (1.76 PPG), while Hertha BSC have gone 20W 15D 19L in their last 54 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Elversberg at home or Hertha BSC away?
SV Elversberg's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Elversberg at home: 1.85 PPG; Hertha BSC away: 1.62 PPG.
Have SV Elversberg or Hertha BSC been keeping clean sheets recently?
SV Elversberg have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Hertha BSC in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Dec 2023, when Hertha BSC won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SV Elversberg's record when hosting Hertha BSC specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
SV Elversberg
0
Draws
2
Hertha BSC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SV Elversberg and Hertha BSC?
From 6 meetings on record, SV Elversberg have won 4, Hertha BSC have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SV Elversberg and Hertha BSC last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when SV Elversberg 0-3 Hertha BSC.
Who has won more matches between SV Elversberg and Hertha BSC?
SV Elversberg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SV Elversberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Elversberg 54%, Hertha BSC 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for SV Elversberg and 65% for Hertha BSC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SV Elversberg keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Hertha BSC in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Elversberg home games / Hertha BSC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SV Elversberg play Hertha BSC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of SV Elversberg's games and 58% of Hertha BSC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SV Elversberg vs Hertha BSC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of SV Elversberg's matches and 65% of Hertha BSC's.
Do SV Elversberg and Hertha BSC tend to score early?
SV Elversberg have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Hertha BSC in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hertha BSC run riot with a 0-3 hammering of SV Elversberg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hertha BSC beat SV Elversberg 0-3 at Waldstadion Kaiserlinde, Regular Season - 21, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Elversberg 1.40 xG and Hertha BSC 1.17 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. SV Elversberg fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Hertha BSC outscored their 1.17 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Elversberg attack 1.03 / defence 0.77 against Hertha BSC attack 1.14 / defence 0.94, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Elversberg 41% | Draw 29% | Hertha BSC 30%, with SV Elversberg to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Hertha BSC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Elversberg 57%, Hertha BSC 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Elversberg's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Hertha BSC's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SV Elversberg 1.76 PPG, Hertha BSC 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hertha BSC win broke the near-deadlock. SV Elversberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.08 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hertha BSC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.73 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.