SV Elversberg 1-2 Hansa Rostock – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hansa Rostock at 39% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SV Elversberg vs Hansa Rostock encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
SV Elversberg welcome Hansa Rostock to Stadion Ludwigspark in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 2). Kick-off is Saturday 5 August 2023 at 13:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 1 games, SV Elversberg have gone 0W 1D 0L — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Hansa Rostock stand at 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Hansa Rostock's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Hansa Rostock are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Elversberg 1.23 xG and Hansa Rostock 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Elversberg attack 0.868 / defence 1.150 | Hansa Rostock attack 0.848 / defence 0.918. League average goals — home 1.538 / away 1.349. Data: built from SV Elversberg's last 1 games and Hansa Rostock's last 35. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: SV Elversberg 34% | Draw 27% | Hansa Rostock 39%. Fair-value odds: SV Elversberg 2.90 | Draw 3.74 | Hansa Rostock 2.58. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hansa Rostock at 39% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hansa Rostock offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's sample (SV Elversberg 1 games, Hansa Rostock 35) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Elversberg vs Hansa Rostock | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 2 | Venue: Stadion Ludwigspark • Kick-off: Saturday 5 August 2023 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Elversberg 34% | Draw 27% | Hansa Rostock 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG SV Elversberg 1.23 / Hansa Rostock 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: SV Elversberg attack 0.868 / def 1.150 | Hansa Rostock attack 0.848 / def 0.918 | league avg home 1.538 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: Hansa Rostock (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
SV Elversberg xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Hansa Rostock xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SV Elversberg vs Hansa Rostock FAQs
What time does SV Elversberg vs Hansa Rostock kick off?
SV Elversberg vs Hansa Rostock kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 5 August 2023 at Stadion Ludwigspark.
What was the final score in SV Elversberg vs Hansa Rostock?
SV Elversberg 1 - 2 Hansa Rostock.
Where is SV Elversberg vs Hansa Rostock being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ludwigspark.
What competition is SV Elversberg vs Hansa Rostock part of?
SV Elversberg vs Hansa Rostock is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 2) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Elversberg vs Hansa Rostock?
Our statistical model gives SV Elversberg a 34% chance of winning, Hansa Rostock a 39% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Hansa Rostock the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Elversberg vs Hansa Rostock?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both SV Elversberg and Hansa Rostock will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will SV Elversberg vs Hansa Rostock have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
SV Elversberg's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Hansa Rostock's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. The same calculation in reverse, Hansa Rostock's attack versus SV Elversberg's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from SV Elversberg's last 1 games and Hansa Rostock's last 35, a sample that still includes some older results.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hansa Rostock Win
34%
2.90
27%
3.74
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
SV Elversberg xG
Total xG
2.54
1.32
Hansa Rostock xG
2.90
34%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
27%
3.73
29%
3.40
Win to Nil
9%
10.81
11%
8.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 10.4 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.7 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.8 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SV Elversberg vs Hansa Rostock Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Elversberg vs Hansa Rostock?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are SV Elversberg and Hansa Rostock expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for SV Elversberg and 1.32 for Hansa Rostock, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Elversberg vs Hansa Rostock?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SV Elversberg's recent record stands at 0W 1D 0L from 1 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D in the last five.
Hansa Rostock, meanwhile, have gone 1W 0D 0L across 1 games — 3.00 PPG, with W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Hansa Rostock by 2.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over SV Elversberg heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
SV Elversberg are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Hansa Rostock are on 2.00 scored and 0.00 conceded. SV Elversberg's scoring rate against Hansa Rostock's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: SV Elversberg have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Hansa Rostock in 0%.
Defensively: Hansa Rostock in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Elversberg
Early Season
Hansa Rostock
Early Season
SV Elversberg (Home) vs Hansa Rostock (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SV Elversberg
Early Season
Hansa Rostock
Early Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
❓ SV Elversberg vs Hansa Rostock Form FAQs
What form are SV Elversberg and Hansa Rostock in coming into this match?
SV Elversberg have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 games (1.00 PPG), while Hansa Rostock have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
Have SV Elversberg or Hansa Rostock been keeping clean sheets recently?
SV Elversberg have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Hansa Rostock in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2023. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent in our data was on 27 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
SV Elversberg
0
Draws
2
Hansa Rostock
Recent Meetings
❓ SV Elversberg vs Hansa Rostock H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SV Elversberg and Hansa Rostock?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, SV Elversberg have won 0, Hansa Rostock have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SV Elversberg and Hansa Rostock last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 January 2024: Hansa Rostock 2-1 SV Elversberg.
Who has won more matches between SV Elversberg and Hansa Rostock?
Hansa Rostock have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Elversberg home games / Hansa Rostock away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SV Elversberg vs Hansa Rostock Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SV Elversberg and Hansa Rostock matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of SV Elversberg's recent matches and 0% of Hansa Rostock's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are SV Elversberg and Hansa Rostock matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of SV Elversberg's recent games and 0% of Hansa Rostock's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SV Elversberg and Hansa Rostock matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of SV Elversberg's recent matches and 100% of Hansa Rostock's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hansa Rostock edge out SV Elversberg 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hansa Rostock beat SV Elversberg 1-2 at Stadion Ludwigspark, Regular Season - 2, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Elversberg 1.23 xG and Hansa Rostock 1.32 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Elversberg attack 0.87 / defence 1.15 against Hansa Rostock attack 0.85 / defence 0.92, drawn from 1/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it SV Elversberg 34% | Draw 27% | Hansa Rostock 39%, with Hansa Rostock to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Elversberg 100%, Hansa Rostock 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Hansa Rostock arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. SV Elversberg managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Hansa Rostock shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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