SV Darmstadt 98 1-1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SV Darmstadt 98 at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SV Darmstadt 98 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees SpVgg Greuther Fürth travel to Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor to take on SV Darmstadt 98. The game is scheduled for Sunday 13 November 2022, 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SV Darmstadt 98 stand at 6W 4D 0L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SV Darmstadt 98, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SV Darmstadt 98 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor this season: 7W 3D 0L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
SV Darmstadt 98 are in the better shape of the two on current 2. Bundesliga data — 0.60 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Data
SV Darmstadt 98 trading profile (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth trading profile (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SV Darmstadt 98 56% and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Darmstadt 98 60% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Darmstadt 98 1.93 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.107 / defence 0.737 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.863 / defence 1.223. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.318. SpVgg Greuther Fürth bring a strong defensive rating of 1.223 — this is suppressing SV Darmstadt 98's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. SV Darmstadt 98's defence rating of 0.737 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 50 SV Darmstadt 98 games / 16 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 63% | Draw 22% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 15%. Fair-value odds: SV Darmstadt 98 1.59 | Draw 4.55 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 6.67. The model has a clear lean to SV Darmstadt 98 (63%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SV Darmstadt 98 as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: SV Darmstadt 98 40% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Darmstadt 98 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Nov 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 63% | Draw 22% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 49% | xG SV Darmstadt 98 1.93 / SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.107 / def 0.737 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.863 / def 1.223 | league avg home 1.429 / away 1.318 • Poisson stance: SV Darmstadt 98 (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Expected Goals
0.84
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
49%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Darmstadt 98 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kick off?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 13 November 2022 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
What was the final score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
SV Darmstadt 98 1 - 1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Where is SV Darmstadt 98 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth being played?
The match is being played at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
What competition is SV Darmstadt 98 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth part of?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Darmstadt 98 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our statistical model gives SV Darmstadt 98 a 63% chance of winning, SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 15% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making SV Darmstadt 98 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both SV Darmstadt 98 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth will score (BTTS).
Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in?
SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-D-W-W. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from SV Darmstadt 98's attack rating (1.11) and SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.93 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack versus SV Darmstadt 98's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.5%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Darmstadt 98 Win
63%
1.60
22%
4.46
15%
6.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Total xG
2.77
0.84
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
1.60
63%
Home win
4.46
22%
Draw
6.66
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
14%
6.91
Win to Nil
27%
3.70
2%
46.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.1 | 10.1 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.5 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Darmstadt 98 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are SV Darmstadt 98 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for SV Darmstadt 98 and 0.84 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Darmstadt 98 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 50 outings, SV Darmstadt 98 have picked up 1.90 PPG on a 28W 11D 11L record — W-D-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for SV Darmstadt 98 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's form line: 7W 16D 27L from 50 games, 0.74 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-W. The sample for SpVgg Greuther Fürth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, SV Darmstadt 98 are the form team by 1.16 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, SV Darmstadt 98 have posted 2.12 PPG from 24 outings (15W 6D 3L).
On the road, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 1W 6D 17L from 24 away games — 0.38 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SV Darmstadt 98 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SV Darmstadt 98 are averaging 1.94 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; SpVgg Greuther Fürth are on 0.98 scored and 2.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 68%.
Last 50 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in coming into this match?
SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 28W 11D 11L in their last 50 games (1.90 PPG), while SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 7W 16D 27L in their last 50 (0.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Darmstadt 98 at home or SpVgg Greuther Fürth away?
SV Darmstadt 98's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Darmstadt 98 at home: 2.12 PPG; SpVgg Greuther Fürth away: 0.38 PPG.
Have SV Darmstadt 98 or SpVgg Greuther Fürth been keeping clean sheets recently?
SV Darmstadt 98 have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SV Darmstadt 98 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 May 2023, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SV Darmstadt 98's record when hosting SpVgg Greuther Fürth specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
SV Darmstadt 98
1
Draws
2
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
From 6 meetings on record, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 3, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SV Darmstadt 98 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3-2 SV Darmstadt 98.
Who has won more matches between SV Darmstadt 98 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
SV Darmstadt 98 have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Darmstadt 98 50%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for SV Darmstadt 98 and 79% for SpVgg Greuther Fürth. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SV Darmstadt 98 keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Darmstadt 98 home games / SpVgg Greuther Fürth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SV Darmstadt 98 play SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of SV Darmstadt 98's games and 71% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SV Darmstadt 98 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of SV Darmstadt 98's matches and 79% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's.
Do SV Darmstadt 98 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth tend to score early?
SV Darmstadt 98 have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SV Darmstadt 98 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SV Darmstadt 98 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth finished level at 1-1 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor, Regular Season - 17, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Darmstadt 98 1.93 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0.84 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. SV Darmstadt 98 fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.11 / defence 0.74 against SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.86 / defence 1.22, drawn from 50/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Darmstadt 98 63% | Draw 22% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 15%, with SV Darmstadt 98 to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Darmstadt 98 60%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SV Darmstadt 98 arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 0.74. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.58 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.