SV Darmstadt 98 2-1 SC Paderborn 07 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SV Darmstadt 98 at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SV Darmstadt 98 vs SC Paderborn 07 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor plays host to SV Darmstadt 98 versus SC Paderborn 07 in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Sunday 9 April 2023 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
SV Darmstadt 98 have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: D L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for SV Darmstadt 98, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SV Darmstadt 98's form when playing at home: 6W 4D 0L across 10 games at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor this term (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
SC Paderborn 07's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D L D L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Paderborn 07 away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.00 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Across 3 previous meetings, SV Darmstadt 98 are the stronger side on paper — 3 victories to 0, with 0 draws in between.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Sep 2022, ended 2–1 with SV Darmstadt 98 winning.
The historical record gives SV Darmstadt 98 a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 3 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading
SV Darmstadt 98 half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
SC Paderborn 07 half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SV Darmstadt 98 53% versus SC Paderborn 07 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Darmstadt 98 55% | SC Paderborn 07 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Darmstadt 98 1.34 xG and SC Paderborn 07 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.018 / defence 0.756 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.884 / defence 0.877. League average goals — home 1.504 / away 1.264. SV Darmstadt 98's defence rating of 0.756 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 60 SV Darmstadt 98 games / 60 SC Paderborn 07 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 48% | Draw 28% | SC Paderborn 07 24%. Fair-value odds: SV Darmstadt 98 2.08 | Draw 3.57 | SC Paderborn 07 4.17. SV Darmstadt 98 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SV Darmstadt 98 as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SV Darmstadt 98 if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: SV Darmstadt 98 50% | SC Paderborn 07 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Darmstadt 98 vs SC Paderborn 07 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Apr 2023, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 48% | Draw 28% | SC Paderborn 07 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 42% | xG SV Darmstadt 98 1.34 / SC Paderborn 07 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.018 / def 0.756 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.884 / def 0.877 | league avg home 1.504 / away 1.264 • Poisson stance: SV Darmstadt 98 (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Expected Goals
0.84
SC Paderborn 07 xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Darmstadt 98 vs SC Paderborn 07 kick off?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs SC Paderborn 07 kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 9 April 2023 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
What was the final score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs SC Paderborn 07?
SV Darmstadt 98 2 - 1 SC Paderborn 07.
Where is SV Darmstadt 98 vs SC Paderborn 07 being played?
The match is being played at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
What competition is SV Darmstadt 98 vs SC Paderborn 07 part of?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs SC Paderborn 07 is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Darmstadt 98 vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our statistical model gives SV Darmstadt 98 a 48% chance of winning, SC Paderborn 07 a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making SV Darmstadt 98 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both SV Darmstadt 98 and SC Paderborn 07 will score (BTTS).
Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs SC Paderborn 07 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and SC Paderborn 07?
Record (3 meetings): SV Darmstadt 98 3W | Draws 0 | SC Paderborn 07 0W.
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and SC Paderborn 07 in?
SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-L-L-W-W. SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates SV Darmstadt 98's attack at 1.02x the league average against SC Paderborn 07's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SC Paderborn 07's attack (0.88x) against SV Darmstadt 98's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.4%), 0-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Darmstadt 98 Win
48%
2.07
28%
3.57
24%
4.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Total xG
2.19
0.84
SC Paderborn 07 xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
4.24
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
21%
4.81
6%
16.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 9.5 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.1 | 12.7 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 8.5 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.5 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Darmstadt 98 vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are SV Darmstadt 98 and SC Paderborn 07 expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for SV Darmstadt 98 and 0.84 for SC Paderborn 07, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Darmstadt 98 vs SC Paderborn 07?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
SV Darmstadt 98 come into this having played 60 games, going 34W 13D 13L for 1.92 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-W. The sample for SV Darmstadt 98 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SC Paderborn 07 sit at 1.57 PPG from 60 outings (26W 16D 18L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for SC Paderborn 07 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.92 PPG for SV Darmstadt 98 against 1.57 for SC Paderborn 07. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
SV Darmstadt 98's home form reads 18W 8D 4L across 30 games on their own ground, a 2.07 PPG return.
Away from home, SC Paderborn 07 have taken 1.60 points per game from 30 outings (13W 9D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SV Darmstadt 98 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SV Darmstadt 98 are averaging 1.87 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; SC Paderborn 07 are on 1.77 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Defensively: SV Darmstadt 98 have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
SC Paderborn 07
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and SC Paderborn 07 in coming into this match?
SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 34W 13D 13L in their last 60 games (1.92 PPG), while SC Paderborn 07 have gone 26W 16D 18L in their last 60 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Darmstadt 98 at home or SC Paderborn 07 away?
SV Darmstadt 98's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Darmstadt 98 at home: 2.07 PPG; SC Paderborn 07 away: 1.60 PPG.
Have SV Darmstadt 98 or SC Paderborn 07 been keeping clean sheets recently?
SV Darmstadt 98 have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, SC Paderborn 07 in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SV Darmstadt 98 won 3-0 on 15 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against SC Paderborn 07 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
SV Darmstadt 98
1
Draws
3
SC Paderborn 07
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and SC Paderborn 07?
From 8 meetings on record, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 4, SC Paderborn 07 have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SV Darmstadt 98 and SC Paderborn 07 last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when SV Darmstadt 98 0-2 SC Paderborn 07.
Who has won more matches between SV Darmstadt 98 and SC Paderborn 07?
SV Darmstadt 98 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Darmstadt 98 50%, SC Paderborn 07 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (SV Darmstadt 98) and 57% (SC Paderborn 07). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SV Darmstadt 98 keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; SC Paderborn 07 in 33%; SC Paderborn 07 in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Darmstadt 98 home games / SC Paderborn 07 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SV Darmstadt 98 play SC Paderborn 07?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of SV Darmstadt 98's recent matches and 50% of SC Paderborn 07's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SV Darmstadt 98 vs SC Paderborn 07 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of SV Darmstadt 98's matches and 57% of SC Paderborn 07's.
Do SV Darmstadt 98 and SC Paderborn 07 tend to score early?
SV Darmstadt 98 have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, SC Paderborn 07 in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SV Darmstadt 98 edge out SC Paderborn 07 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SV Darmstadt 98 beat SC Paderborn 07 2-1 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor, Regular Season - 27, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Darmstadt 98 1.34 xG and SC Paderborn 07 0.84 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.02 / defence 0.76 against SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.88 / defence 0.88, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Darmstadt 98 48% | Draw 28% | SC Paderborn 07 24%, with SV Darmstadt 98 to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Darmstadt 98 55%, SC Paderborn 07 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SV Darmstadt 98 1.92 PPG, SC Paderborn 07 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SV Darmstadt 98 win broke the near-deadlock. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.