SV Darmstadt 98 3-1 Hertha BSC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hertha BSC at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hertha BSC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SV Darmstadt 98 and Hertha BSC meet at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 9 November 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
SV Darmstadt 98 (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for SV Darmstadt 98, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SV Darmstadt 98's form when playing at home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 games at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor this term (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.60 lags behind their overall 1.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor this season.
Hertha BSC's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L D W W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hertha BSC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hertha BSC's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for SV Darmstadt 98 against 1.70 for Hertha BSC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — SV Darmstadt 98 have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Hertha BSC in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
SV Darmstadt 98 — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%; they fail to score in 42% of games.
Hertha BSC — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SV Darmstadt 98 56% and Hertha BSC 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SV Darmstadt 98 62% | Hertha BSC 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Darmstadt 98 1.36 xG and Hertha BSC 1.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.984 / defence 1.034 | Hertha BSC attack 1.205 / defence 0.874. League average goals — home 1.583 / away 1.528. Hertha BSC have an above-average attack strength of 1.205 — the away xG of 1.91 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 11 SV Darmstadt 98 games / 45 Hertha BSC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 26% | Draw 25% | Hertha BSC 49%. Fair-value odds: SV Darmstadt 98 3.85 | Draw 4.00 | Hertha BSC 2.04. Hertha BSC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.36 / 1.91) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Hertha BSC as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hertha BSC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.27 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SV Darmstadt 98 60% | Hertha BSC 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hertha BSC | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Nov 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 26% | Draw 25% | Hertha BSC 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 65% | xG SV Darmstadt 98 1.36 / Hertha BSC 1.91 • Poisson strength factors: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.984 / def 1.034 | Hertha BSC attack 1.205 / def 0.874 | league avg home 1.583 / away 1.528 • Poisson stance: Hertha BSC (49%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Expected Goals
1.91
Hertha BSC xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hertha BSC kick off?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hertha BSC kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 9 November 2024 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
What was the final score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hertha BSC?
SV Darmstadt 98 3 - 1 Hertha BSC.
Where is SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hertha BSC being played?
The match is being played at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
What competition is SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hertha BSC part of?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hertha BSC is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hertha BSC?
Our statistical model gives SV Darmstadt 98 a 26% chance of winning, Hertha BSC a 49% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Hertha BSC the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hertha BSC?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both SV Darmstadt 98 and Hertha BSC will score (BTTS).
Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hertha BSC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and Hertha BSC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and Hertha BSC in?
SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-W-D-W. Hertha BSC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
What do the betting odds say about SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hertha BSC?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
SV Darmstadt 98's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Hertha BSC's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. Flip it around — Hertha BSC's attack (1.21x) against SV Darmstadt 98's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.91.
These ratings are built from 11/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hertha BSC Win
26%
3.84
25%
3.97
49%
2.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
7.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Total xG
3.27
1.91
Hertha BSC xG
3.84
26%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
2.05
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.83
Clean Sheet
15%
6.72
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
4%
25.81
13%
7.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 7.3 | 6.9 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 9.9 | 9.4 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.7 | 6.4 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hertha BSC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are SV Darmstadt 98 and Hertha BSC expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for SV Darmstadt 98 and 1.91 for Hertha BSC, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hertha BSC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 45 outings, SV Darmstadt 98 have picked up 0.67 PPG on a 6W 12D 27L record — L-D-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for SV Darmstadt 98 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hertha BSC's form line: 18W 11D 16L from 45 games, 1.44 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-L. The sample for Hertha BSC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Hertha BSC are the form team by 0.77 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against SV Darmstadt 98.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, SV Darmstadt 98 have posted 0.55 PPG from 22 outings (2W 6D 14L).
On the road, Hertha BSC have gone 8W 5D 9L from 22 away games — 1.32 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hertha BSC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
SV Darmstadt 98 are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game recently; Hertha BSC are on 1.96 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hertha BSC in 71%.
Last 45 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
Hertha BSC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and Hertha BSC in coming into this match?
SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 6W 12D 27L in their last 45 games (0.67 PPG), while Hertha BSC have gone 18W 11D 16L in their last 45 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Darmstadt 98 at home or Hertha BSC away?
Hertha BSC's away record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Darmstadt 98 at home: 0.55 PPG; Hertha BSC away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Hertha BSC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
SV Darmstadt 98
3
Draws
0
Hertha BSC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and Hertha BSC?
From 4 meetings on record, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 1, Hertha BSC have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did SV Darmstadt 98 and Hertha BSC last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Hertha BSC 2-2 SV Darmstadt 98.
Who has won more matches between SV Darmstadt 98 and Hertha BSC?
SV Darmstadt 98 have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 54% for SV Darmstadt 98, 77% for Hertha BSC — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for SV Darmstadt 98 and 73% for Hertha BSC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SV Darmstadt 98 have failed to score in 46% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Darmstadt 98 home games / Hertha BSC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SV Darmstadt 98 play Hertha BSC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of SV Darmstadt 98's games and 77% of Hertha BSC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hertha BSC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of SV Darmstadt 98's matches and 73% of Hertha BSC's.
Do SV Darmstadt 98 and Hertha BSC tend to score early?
SV Darmstadt 98 have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Hertha BSC in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SV Darmstadt 98 cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Hertha BSC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SV Darmstadt 98 beat Hertha BSC 3-1 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor, Regular Season - 12, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Darmstadt 98 1.36 xG and Hertha BSC 1.91 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. SV Darmstadt 98 beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Hertha BSC landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.98 / defence 1.03 against Hertha BSC attack 1.21 / defence 0.87, drawn from 11/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Darmstadt 98 26% | Draw 25% | Hertha BSC 49%, with Hertha BSC to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual SV Darmstadt 98 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Darmstadt 98 62%, Hertha BSC 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Hertha BSC's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Hertha BSC arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.67. Form was overturned, with SV Darmstadt 98 winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.18 average — tighter than their form line. Hertha BSC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.