SV Darmstadt 98 1-1 Hansa Rostock – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hansa Rostock at 44%, yet in-form SV Darmstadt 98 provide a compelling counter-argument — this SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hansa Rostock fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hansa Rostock make the trip to Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor to face SV Darmstadt 98 in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Sunday 20 February 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
SV Darmstadt 98's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W D W L D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for SV Darmstadt 98, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, SV Darmstadt 98 have posted 6W 1D 3L at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Hansa Rostock (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hansa Rostock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hansa Rostock's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward SV Darmstadt 98. A 1.00 PPG lead over Hansa Rostock (2.00 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — SV Darmstadt 98 lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2021, ended 1–2 with Hansa Rostock winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
SV Darmstadt 98 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Hansa Rostock goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SV Darmstadt 98 50% versus Hansa Rostock 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Darmstadt 98 68% | Hansa Rostock 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Darmstadt 98 1.63 xG and Hansa Rostock 1.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.123 / defence 1.385 | Hansa Rostock attack 0.996 / defence 1.275. League average goals — home 1.140 / away 1.438. Hansa Rostock bring a strong defensive rating of 1.275 — this is suppressing SV Darmstadt 98's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 SV Darmstadt 98 games / 22 Hansa Rostock games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 30% | Draw 26% | Hansa Rostock 44%. Fair-value odds: SV Darmstadt 98 3.33 | Draw 3.85 | Hansa Rostock 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.62. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.62 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (1.63 / 1.98) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hansa Rostock are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form SV Darmstadt 98 (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hansa Rostock if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.62 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 70% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 72% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: SV Darmstadt 98 30% | Hansa Rostock 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hansa Rostock | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Feb 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 30% | Draw 26% | Hansa Rostock 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 72% | xG SV Darmstadt 98 1.63 / Hansa Rostock 1.98 • Poisson strength factors: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.123 / def 1.385 | Hansa Rostock attack 0.996 / def 1.275 | league avg home 1.140 / away 1.438 • Poisson stance: Hansa Rostock (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Expected Goals
1.98
Hansa Rostock xG
72%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hansa Rostock kick off?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hansa Rostock kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 20 February 2022 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
What was the final score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hansa Rostock?
SV Darmstadt 98 1 - 1 Hansa Rostock.
Where is SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hansa Rostock being played?
The match is being played at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
What competition is SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hansa Rostock part of?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hansa Rostock is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hansa Rostock?
Our statistical model gives SV Darmstadt 98 a 30% chance of winning, Hansa Rostock a 44% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Hansa Rostock the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hansa Rostock?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both SV Darmstadt 98 and Hansa Rostock will score (BTTS).
Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hansa Rostock have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and Hansa Rostock?
Record (1 meetings): SV Darmstadt 98 0W | Draws 0 | Hansa Rostock 1W.
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and Hansa Rostock in?
SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-L-D. Hansa Rostock (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates SV Darmstadt 98's attack at 1.12x the league average against Hansa Rostock's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 1.63 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Hansa Rostock's attack (1.00x) against SV Darmstadt 98's defence (1.39x) — and the away total comes out at 1.98.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hansa Rostock Win
30%
3.35
26%
3.83
44%
2.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Total xG
3.62
1.98
Hansa Rostock xG
3.35
30%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
2.27
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.40
28%
BTTS No
3.53
Clean Sheet
14%
7.27
20%
5.12
Win to Nil
4%
24.34
9%
11.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 8.7 | 8.6 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 7.1 | 7.0 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hansa Rostock?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are SV Darmstadt 98 and Hansa Rostock expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for SV Darmstadt 98 and 1.98 for Hansa Rostock, a combined total of 3.62.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hansa Rostock?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
SV Darmstadt 98 come into this having played 22 games, going 12W 4D 6L for 1.82 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-D. The sample for SV Darmstadt 98 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hansa Rostock sit at 1.09 PPG from 22 outings (6W 6D 10L), a run that reads D-L-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Hansa Rostock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SV Darmstadt 98 carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.73 PPG clear of Hansa Rostock — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
SV Darmstadt 98's home form reads 6W 1D 3L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.90 PPG return.
Away from home, Hansa Rostock have taken 1.20 points per game from 10 outings (3W 3D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SV Darmstadt 98 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SV Darmstadt 98 are averaging 2.14 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Hansa Rostock are on 1.18 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Defensively: SV Darmstadt 98 have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
Hansa Rostock
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and Hansa Rostock in coming into this match?
SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 12W 4D 6L in their last 22 games (1.82 PPG), while Hansa Rostock have gone 6W 6D 10L in their last 22 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Darmstadt 98 at home or Hansa Rostock away?
SV Darmstadt 98's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Darmstadt 98 at home: 1.90 PPG; Hansa Rostock away: 1.20 PPG.
Have SV Darmstadt 98 or Hansa Rostock been keeping clean sheets recently?
SV Darmstadt 98 have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Hansa Rostock in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: SV Darmstadt 98 have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SV Darmstadt 98 won 4-0 on 13 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Hansa Rostock — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
SV Darmstadt 98
1
Draws
1
Hansa Rostock
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and Hansa Rostock?
From 4 meetings on record, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 2, Hansa Rostock have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SV Darmstadt 98 and Hansa Rostock last play each other?
They last met on 18 February 2023, when Hansa Rostock 0-1 SV Darmstadt 98.
Who has won more matches between SV Darmstadt 98 and Hansa Rostock?
SV Darmstadt 98 have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Hansa Rostock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Darmstadt 98 30%, Hansa Rostock 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for SV Darmstadt 98 and 60% for Hansa Rostock. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SV Darmstadt 98 keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Hansa Rostock in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Darmstadt 98 home games / Hansa Rostock away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SV Darmstadt 98 play Hansa Rostock?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of SV Darmstadt 98's recent matches and 50% of Hansa Rostock's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hansa Rostock usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of SV Darmstadt 98's matches and 60% of Hansa Rostock's.
Do SV Darmstadt 98 and Hansa Rostock tend to score early?
SV Darmstadt 98 have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Hansa Rostock in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SV Darmstadt 98 and Hansa Rostock share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SV Darmstadt 98 and Hansa Rostock finished level at 1-1 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor, Regular Season - 23, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Darmstadt 98 1.63 xG and Hansa Rostock 1.98 xG, a combined 3.62. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Hansa Rostock landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.12 / defence 1.39 against Hansa Rostock attack 1.00 / defence 1.27, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Darmstadt 98 30% | Draw 26% | Hansa Rostock 44%, with Hansa Rostock to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Darmstadt 98 68%, Hansa Rostock 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Hansa Rostock's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SV Darmstadt 98 arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.09. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.30 scoring average — below par going forward. Hansa Rostock (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.