SV Darmstadt 98 0-5 Hamburger SV – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SV Darmstadt 98 at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hamburger SV fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SV Darmstadt 98 and Hamburger SV meet at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 6 February 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
SV Darmstadt 98's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: L W W D W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for SV Darmstadt 98, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, SV Darmstadt 98 have posted 6W 1D 2L at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor — 2.11 PPG. They are averaging 2.56 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 9 home games (56%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
Hamburger SV have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: L W D D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hamburger SV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, Hamburger SV have posted 3W 4D 2L from 9 away outings — 1.44 PPG. Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.30 vs 1.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — SV Darmstadt 98 lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
SV Darmstadt 98 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Hamburger SV goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 45% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SV Darmstadt 98 50% and Hamburger SV 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Darmstadt 98 65% | Hamburger SV 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Darmstadt 98 1.49 xG and Hamburger SV 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.241 / defence 1.057 | Hamburger SV attack 0.779 / defence 1.020. League average goals — home 1.175 / away 1.419. Data: 20 SV Darmstadt 98 games / 20 Hamburger SV games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 42% | Draw 31% | Hamburger SV 27%. Fair-value odds: SV Darmstadt 98 2.38 | Draw 3.23 | Hamburger SV 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SV Darmstadt 98 as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SV Darmstadt 98 if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.66 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: SV Darmstadt 98 33% | Hamburger SV 67%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hamburger SV | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Feb 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 42% | Draw 31% | Hamburger SV 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 56% | xG SV Darmstadt 98 1.49 / Hamburger SV 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.241 / def 1.057 | Hamburger SV attack 0.779 / def 1.020 | league avg home 1.175 / away 1.419 • Poisson stance: SV Darmstadt 98 (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Hamburger SV xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hamburger SV kick off?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hamburger SV kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 6 February 2022 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
What was the final score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hamburger SV?
SV Darmstadt 98 0 - 5 Hamburger SV.
Where is SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hamburger SV being played?
The match is being played at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
What competition is SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hamburger SV part of?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hamburger SV is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hamburger SV?
Our statistical model gives SV Darmstadt 98 a 42% chance of winning, Hamburger SV a 27% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making SV Darmstadt 98 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hamburger SV?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both SV Darmstadt 98 and Hamburger SV will score (BTTS).
Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hamburger SV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and Hamburger SV?
Record (1 meetings): SV Darmstadt 98 0W | Draws 1 | Hamburger SV 0W.
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and Hamburger SV in?
SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-D-W. Hamburger SV (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates SV Darmstadt 98's attack at 1.24x the league average against Hamburger SV's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.49 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Hamburger SV's attack (0.78x) against SV Darmstadt 98's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Darmstadt 98 Win
42%
2.38
31%
3.25
27%
3.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Total xG
2.66
1.17
Hamburger SV xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
3.67
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
23%
4.42
Win to Nil
13%
7.67
6%
16.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.2 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.2 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.1 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hamburger SV?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are SV Darmstadt 98 and Hamburger SV expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for SV Darmstadt 98 and 1.17 for Hamburger SV, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hamburger SV?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 20 outings, SV Darmstadt 98 have picked up 1.95 PPG on a 12W 3D 5L record — L-W-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for SV Darmstadt 98 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hamburger SV's form line: 8W 10D 2L from 20 games, 1.70 PPG, last five L-W-D-D-W. The sample for Hamburger SV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.95 PPG for SV Darmstadt 98 against 1.70 for Hamburger SV. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, SV Darmstadt 98 have posted 2.11 PPG from 9 outings (6W 1D 2L).
On the road, Hamburger SV have gone 3W 4D 2L from 9 away games — 1.44 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SV Darmstadt 98 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
SV Darmstadt 98 are averaging 2.25 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Hamburger SV are on 1.70 scored and 1.00 conceded. SV Darmstadt 98's scoring rate against Hamburger SV's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Hamburger SV in 75%.
Defensively: SV Darmstadt 98 have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
Hamburger SV
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and Hamburger SV in coming into this match?
SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 12W 3D 5L in their last 20 games (1.95 PPG), while Hamburger SV have gone 8W 10D 2L in their last 20 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Darmstadt 98 at home or Hamburger SV away?
SV Darmstadt 98's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Darmstadt 98 at home: 2.11 PPG; Hamburger SV away: 1.44 PPG.
Have SV Darmstadt 98 or Hamburger SV been keeping clean sheets recently?
SV Darmstadt 98 have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Hamburger SV in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hamburger SV won 0-5 on 6 Feb 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Hamburger SV — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
SV Darmstadt 98
3
Draws
2
Hamburger SV
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and Hamburger SV?
From 6 meetings on record, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 1, Hamburger SV have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did SV Darmstadt 98 and Hamburger SV last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2025, when SV Darmstadt 98 0-4 Hamburger SV.
Who has won more matches between SV Darmstadt 98 and Hamburger SV?
Hamburger SV have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Darmstadt 98 33%, Hamburger SV 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (SV Darmstadt 98) and 33% (Hamburger SV).
On the defensive side: SV Darmstadt 98 keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Darmstadt 98 home games / Hamburger SV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SV Darmstadt 98 play Hamburger SV?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of SV Darmstadt 98's recent matches and 67% of Hamburger SV's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hamburger SV usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of SV Darmstadt 98's recent games and 33% of Hamburger SV's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SV Darmstadt 98 and Hamburger SV tend to score early?
SV Darmstadt 98 have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Hamburger SV in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hamburger SV run riot with a 0-5 hammering of SV Darmstadt 98.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hamburger SV beat SV Darmstadt 98 0-5 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor, Regular Season - 21, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Darmstadt 98 1.49 xG and Hamburger SV 1.17 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. SV Darmstadt 98 fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Hamburger SV outscored their 1.17 projection by 3.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.24 / defence 1.06 against Hamburger SV attack 0.78 / defence 1.02, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Darmstadt 98 42% | Draw 31% | Hamburger SV 27%, with SV Darmstadt 98 to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Hamburger SV win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Darmstadt 98 65%, Hamburger SV 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Hamburger SV's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SV Darmstadt 98 1.95 PPG, Hamburger SV 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hamburger SV win broke the near-deadlock. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.56 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hamburger SV (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.