SV Darmstadt 98 1-0 Fortuna Düsseldorf – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SV Darmstadt 98 at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this SV Darmstadt 98 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 11 as SV Darmstadt 98 welcome Fortuna Düsseldorf to Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor. Kick-off is set for Saturday 8 October 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
SV Darmstadt 98 — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: D D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SV Darmstadt 98, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SV Darmstadt 98 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Fortuna Düsseldorf have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Düsseldorf, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fortuna Düsseldorf away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — SV Darmstadt 98 at 2.10 PPG versus Fortuna Düsseldorf's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. SV Darmstadt 98 register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Fortuna Düsseldorf in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 0, Fortuna Düsseldorf 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 May 2022, ended 1–2 with Fortuna Düsseldorf winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
SV Darmstadt 98 in-play and half-time data (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Fortuna Düsseldorf in-play and half-time data (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SV Darmstadt 98 57% versus Fortuna Düsseldorf 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Darmstadt 98 66% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Darmstadt 98 2.02 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.244 / defence 0.917 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.859 / defence 1.030. League average goals — home 1.579 / away 1.291. Data: 44 SV Darmstadt 98 games / 44 Fortuna Düsseldorf games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 59% | Draw 23% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 17%. Fair-value odds: SV Darmstadt 98 1.69 | Draw 4.35 | Fortuna Düsseldorf 5.88. The model has a clear lean to SV Darmstadt 98 (59%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SV Darmstadt 98 are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.04 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: SV Darmstadt 98 60% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Darmstadt 98 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Oct 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 59% | Draw 23% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 57% | xG SV Darmstadt 98 2.02 / Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.244 / def 0.917 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.859 / def 1.030 | league avg home 1.579 / away 1.291 • Poisson stance: SV Darmstadt 98 (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
57%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Darmstadt 98 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kick off?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 8 October 2022 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
What was the final score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
SV Darmstadt 98 1 - 0 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Where is SV Darmstadt 98 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf being played?
The match is being played at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
What competition is SV Darmstadt 98 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf part of?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Darmstadt 98 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our statistical model gives SV Darmstadt 98 a 59% chance of winning, Fortuna Düsseldorf a 17% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making SV Darmstadt 98 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both SV Darmstadt 98 and Fortuna Düsseldorf will score (BTTS).
Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Record (2 meetings): SV Darmstadt 98 0W | Draws 0 | Fortuna Düsseldorf 2W.
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and Fortuna Düsseldorf in?
SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-W-W. Fortuna Düsseldorf (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates SV Darmstadt 98's attack at 1.24x the league average against Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 2.02 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fortuna Düsseldorf's attack versus SV Darmstadt 98's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (10.0%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Darmstadt 98 Win
59%
1.68
23%
4.28
17%
5.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
10.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Total xG
3.04
1.02
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
1.68
59%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
5.83
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
13%
7.56
Win to Nil
22%
4.65
2%
44.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.7 | 9.8 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 10.0 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Darmstadt 98 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are SV Darmstadt 98 and Fortuna Düsseldorf expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for SV Darmstadt 98 and 1.02 for Fortuna Düsseldorf, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Darmstadt 98 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SV Darmstadt 98's recent record stands at 24W 9D 11L from 44 games, a 1.84 PPG return, with D-D-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for SV Darmstadt 98 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fortuna Düsseldorf, meanwhile, have gone 16W 13D 15L across 44 games — 1.39 PPG, with W-L-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Fortuna Düsseldorf is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours SV Darmstadt 98 by 0.45 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Fortuna Düsseldorf heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, SV Darmstadt 98 have managed 13W 5D 4L from 22 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's away record stands at 6W 6D 10L across 22 trips, a 1.09 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SV Darmstadt 98 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SV Darmstadt 98 are averaging 2.05 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Fortuna Düsseldorf are on 1.48 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fortuna Düsseldorf in 61%.
Last 44 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and Fortuna Düsseldorf in coming into this match?
SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 24W 9D 11L in their last 44 games (1.84 PPG), while Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 16W 13D 15L in their last 44 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Darmstadt 98 at home or Fortuna Düsseldorf away?
SV Darmstadt 98's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Darmstadt 98 at home: 2.00 PPG; Fortuna Düsseldorf away: 1.09 PPG.
Have SV Darmstadt 98 or Fortuna Düsseldorf been keeping clean sheets recently?
SV Darmstadt 98 have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Fortuna Düsseldorf in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SV Darmstadt 98 and Fortuna Düsseldorf runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: SV Darmstadt 98 have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Sep 2025, when SV Darmstadt 98 won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SV Darmstadt 98's record when hosting Fortuna Düsseldorf specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
SV Darmstadt 98
1
Draws
4
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
From 8 meetings on record, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 3, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SV Darmstadt 98 and Fortuna Düsseldorf last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when SV Darmstadt 98 2-1 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Who has won more matches between SV Darmstadt 98 and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 68% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Fortuna Düsseldorf see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Darmstadt 98 50%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (SV Darmstadt 98) and 46% (Fortuna Düsseldorf). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SV Darmstadt 98 keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Fortuna Düsseldorf in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Darmstadt 98 home games / Fortuna Düsseldorf away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SV Darmstadt 98 play Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of SV Darmstadt 98's recent matches and 50% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SV Darmstadt 98 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of SV Darmstadt 98's matches and 46% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's.
Do SV Darmstadt 98 and Fortuna Düsseldorf tend to score early?
SV Darmstadt 98 have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Fortuna Düsseldorf in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SV Darmstadt 98 edge out Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SV Darmstadt 98 beat Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-0 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor, Regular Season - 11, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Darmstadt 98 2.02 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.02 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. SV Darmstadt 98 fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Fortuna Düsseldorf landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.24 / defence 0.92 against Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.86 / defence 1.03, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Darmstadt 98 59% | Draw 23% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 17%, with SV Darmstadt 98 to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Darmstadt 98 66%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, SV Darmstadt 98 arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.39. The form guide was vindicated by the result. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.41 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line. Fortuna Düsseldorf (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.