SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC St. Pauli – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates SV Darmstadt 98 at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC St. Pauli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 9 as SV Darmstadt 98 welcome FC St. Pauli to Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor. Kick-off is set for Saturday 24 October 2026 at 11:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 0W 3D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.30 PPG return. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. SV Darmstadt 98 have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SV Darmstadt 98's home record at Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor: 4W 3D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — SV Darmstadt 98 are significantly better at Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC St. Pauli stand at 0W 4D 6L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L D D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. FC St. Pauli have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC St. Pauli's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — SV Darmstadt 98 at 0.30 PPG versus FC St. Pauli's 0.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 2, FC St. Pauli 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 May 2023, ended 0–3 with FC St. Pauli winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
SV Darmstadt 98 in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
FC St. Pauli in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SV Darmstadt 98 58% versus FC St. Pauli 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Darmstadt 98 55% | FC St. Pauli 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Darmstadt 98 1.69 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.858 / defence 0.995 | FC St. Pauli attack 1.028 / defence 1.130. League average goals — home 1.739 / away 1.590. Data: 38 SV Darmstadt 98 games / 4 FC St. Pauli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 40% | Draw 23% | FC St. Pauli 37%. Fair-value odds: SV Darmstadt 98 2.50 | Draw 4.35 | FC St. Pauli 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.69 / 1.63) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SV Darmstadt 98 at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SV Darmstadt 98 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.31 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates are neutral: SV Darmstadt 98 40% | FC St. Pauli 60%.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC St. Pauli | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 40% | Draw 23% | FC St. Pauli 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 65% | xG SV Darmstadt 98 1.69 / FC St. Pauli 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.858 / def 0.995 | FC St. Pauli attack 1.028 / def 1.130 | league avg home 1.739 / away 1.590 • Poisson stance: SV Darmstadt 98 (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Expected Goals
1.63
FC St. Pauli xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC St. Pauli kick off?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC St. Pauli is scheduled to kick off at 11:30 on Saturday 24 October 2026 at Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor.
Where is SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC St. Pauli being played?
The match is being played at Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor.
What competition is SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC St. Pauli part of?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC St. Pauli is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC St. Pauli?
Our statistical model gives SV Darmstadt 98 a 40% chance of winning, FC St. Pauli a 37% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making SV Darmstadt 98 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC St. Pauli?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both SV Darmstadt 98 and FC St. Pauli will score (BTTS).
Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC St. Pauli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and FC St. Pauli?
Record (4 meetings): SV Darmstadt 98 2W | Draws 1 | FC St. Pauli 1W.
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and FC St. Pauli in?
SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. FC St. Pauli (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates SV Darmstadt 98's attack at 0.86x the league average against FC St. Pauli's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.69 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC St. Pauli's attack versus SV Darmstadt 98's defence, projects 1.63 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Darmstadt 98 Win
40%
2.52
23%
4.36
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Total xG
3.31
1.63
FC St. Pauli xG
2.52
40%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.90
Clean Sheet
20%
5.09
19%
5.40
Win to Nil
8%
12.80
7%
14.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 5.9 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.0 | 8.1 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.4 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.7 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC St. Pauli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are SV Darmstadt 98 and FC St. Pauli expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for SV Darmstadt 98 and 1.63 for FC St. Pauli, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC St. Pauli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SV Darmstadt 98 come into this having played 38 games, going 13W 14D 11L for 1.39 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for SV Darmstadt 98, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, FC St. Pauli sit at 0.76 PPG from 38 outings (6W 11D 21L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for FC St. Pauli, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
SV Darmstadt 98 carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.63 PPG clear of FC St. Pauli — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
SV Darmstadt 98's home form reads 10W 6D 3L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.89 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.39 PPG overall — SV Darmstadt 98 are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, FC St. Pauli have taken 0.58 points per game from 19 outings (2W 5D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SV Darmstadt 98 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SV Darmstadt 98 are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; FC St. Pauli are on 0.92 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC St. Pauli in 61%.
Last 38 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Darmstadt 98
Early Season
FC St. Pauli
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and FC St. Pauli in coming into this match?
SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 13W 14D 11L in their last 38 games (1.39 PPG), while FC St. Pauli have gone 6W 11D 21L in their last 38 (0.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Darmstadt 98 at home or FC St. Pauli away?
SV Darmstadt 98's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Darmstadt 98 at home: 1.89 PPG; FC St. Pauli away: 0.58 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SV Darmstadt 98 and FC St. Pauli runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Nov 2021, when SV Darmstadt 98 won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SV Darmstadt 98's record when hosting FC St. Pauli specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
SV Darmstadt 98
1
Draws
1
FC St. Pauli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and FC St. Pauli?
From 4 meetings on record, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 2, FC St. Pauli have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SV Darmstadt 98 and FC St. Pauli last play each other?
They last met on 6 May 2023, when SV Darmstadt 98 0-3 FC St. Pauli.
Who has won more matches between SV Darmstadt 98 and FC St. Pauli?
SV Darmstadt 98 have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Darmstadt 98 47%, FC St. Pauli 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (SV Darmstadt 98) and 47% (FC St. Pauli).
On the defensive side: SV Darmstadt 98 keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; SV Darmstadt 98 have failed to score in 26% of games; FC St. Pauli in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Darmstadt 98 home games / FC St. Pauli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SV Darmstadt 98 play FC St. Pauli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of SV Darmstadt 98's recent matches and 53% of FC St. Pauli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC St. Pauli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of SV Darmstadt 98's recent games and 47% of FC St. Pauli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SV Darmstadt 98 and FC St. Pauli tend to score early?
SV Darmstadt 98 have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, FC St. Pauli in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.