SSV Ulm 1846 1-2 Fortuna Düsseldorf – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fortuna Düsseldorf at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SSV Ulm 1846 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Donaustadion plays host to SSV Ulm 1846 versus Fortuna Düsseldorf in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Sunday 25 August 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
SSV Ulm 1846 have collected 0.00 PPG across 2 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 0W 0D 2L. Last five: L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. SSV Ulm 1846 have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: W W L W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Fortuna Düsseldorf have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, Fortuna Düsseldorf have posted 5W 4D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Fortuna Düsseldorf arrive in superior form — a 2.10 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 0.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SSV Ulm 1846 1.04 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.840 / defence 1.219 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.206 / defence 0.806. League average goals — home 1.539 / away 1.218. Fortuna Düsseldorf have an above-average attack strength of 1.206 — the away xG of 1.79 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 2 SSV Ulm 1846 games / 36 Fortuna Düsseldorf games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: SSV Ulm 1846 20% | Draw 26% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 54%. Fair-value odds: SSV Ulm 1846 5.00 | Draw 3.85 | Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.85. Fortuna Düsseldorf hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fortuna Düsseldorf are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fortuna Düsseldorf if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SSV Ulm 1846 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Donaustadion • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Aug 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SSV Ulm 1846 20% | Draw 26% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 55% | xG SSV Ulm 1846 1.04 / Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.79 • Poisson strength factors: SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.840 / def 1.219 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.206 / def 0.806 | league avg home 1.539 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Fortuna Düsseldorf (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
SSV Ulm 1846 xG
Expected Goals
1.79
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
55%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SSV Ulm 1846 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kick off?
SSV Ulm 1846 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 25 August 2024 at Donaustadion.
What was the final score in SSV Ulm 1846 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
SSV Ulm 1846 1 - 2 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Where is SSV Ulm 1846 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf being played?
The match is being played at Donaustadion.
What competition is SSV Ulm 1846 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf part of?
SSV Ulm 1846 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SSV Ulm 1846 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our statistical model gives SSV Ulm 1846 a 20% chance of winning, Fortuna Düsseldorf a 54% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Fortuna Düsseldorf the favourite.
Will both teams score in SSV Ulm 1846 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both SSV Ulm 1846 and Fortuna Düsseldorf will score (BTTS).
Will SSV Ulm 1846 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between SSV Ulm 1846 and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SSV Ulm 1846 and Fortuna Düsseldorf in?
SSV Ulm 1846 (all comps): 0W-0D-2L in 2 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L. Fortuna Düsseldorf (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
SSV Ulm 1846's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Fortuna Düsseldorf's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.04. Flip it around — Fortuna Düsseldorf's attack (1.21x) against SSV Ulm 1846's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.79.
The sample (2/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortuna Düsseldorf Win
20%
4.89
26%
3.84
54%
1.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
SSV Ulm 1846 xG
Total xG
2.83
1.79
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
4.89
20%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
1.87
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
17%
6.00
35%
2.83
Win to Nil
3%
29.32
19%
5.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 10.5 | 9.4 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 11.0 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 5.7 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SSV Ulm 1846 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are SSV Ulm 1846 and Fortuna Düsseldorf expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for SSV Ulm 1846 and 1.79 for Fortuna Düsseldorf, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for SSV Ulm 1846 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 2 outings, SSV Ulm 1846 have picked up 0.00 PPG on a 0W 0D 2L record — L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for SSV Ulm 1846, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's form line: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games, 2.00 PPG, last five W-D. It's still early in the season for Fortuna Düsseldorf, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Fortuna Düsseldorf are the form team by 2.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against SSV Ulm 1846.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SSV Ulm 1846 are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Fortuna Düsseldorf are on 1.00 scored and 0.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fortuna Düsseldorf in 0%.
Defensively: Fortuna Düsseldorf in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SSV Ulm 1846
Early Season
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SSV Ulm 1846 and Fortuna Düsseldorf in coming into this match?
SSV Ulm 1846 have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 games (0.00 PPG), while Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 (2.00 PPG).
Have SSV Ulm 1846 or Fortuna Düsseldorf been keeping clean sheets recently?
SSV Ulm 1846 have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Fortuna Düsseldorf in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since August 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
SSV Ulm 1846
0
Draws
2
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SSV Ulm 1846 and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
From 2 meetings on record, SSV Ulm 1846 have won 0, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SSV Ulm 1846 and Fortuna Düsseldorf last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2025, when Fortuna Düsseldorf 3-2 SSV Ulm 1846.
Who has won more matches between SSV Ulm 1846 and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SSV Ulm 1846 home games / Fortuna Düsseldorf away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SSV Ulm 1846 play Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of SSV Ulm 1846's recent matches and 0% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SSV Ulm 1846 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of SSV Ulm 1846's recent games and 0% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SSV Ulm 1846 and Fortuna Düsseldorf tend to score early?
SSV Ulm 1846 have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Fortuna Düsseldorf in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fortuna Düsseldorf edge out SSV Ulm 1846 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortuna Düsseldorf beat SSV Ulm 1846 1-2 at Donaustadion, Regular Season - 3, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SSV Ulm 1846 1.04 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.79 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.84 / defence 1.22 against Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.21 / defence 0.81, drawn from 2/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it SSV Ulm 1846 20% | Draw 26% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 54%, with Fortuna Düsseldorf to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SSV Ulm 1846 50%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Fortuna Düsseldorf arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Fortuna Düsseldorf scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.