SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1-0 Hansa Rostock – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 57% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as SpVgg Greuther Fürth face Hansa Rostock.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
SpVgg Greuther Fürth welcome Hansa Rostock to Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 9). Kick-off is Saturday 7 October 2023 at 13:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 3W 3D 4L — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L L D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have posted 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — SpVgg Greuther Fürth are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Hansa Rostock — last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Hansa Rostock's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (SpVgg Greuther Fürth) versus 1.60 (Hansa Rostock). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 0, Hansa Rostock 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 22 Apr 2023, ended SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0–2 Hansa Rostock — a Hansa Rostock win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
SpVgg Greuther Fürth trading profile (last 42 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Hansa Rostock trading profile (last 42 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 69% versus Hansa Rostock 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 62% | Hansa Rostock 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2.03 xG and Hansa Rostock 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.208 / defence 1.063 | Hansa Rostock attack 0.838 / defence 0.993. League average goals — home 1.691 / away 1.322. Data: built from SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 42 games and Hansa Rostock's last 42.
Result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 57% | Draw 22% | Hansa Rostock 21%. Fair-value odds: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.76 | Draw 4.57 | Hansa Rostock 4.67. The model has a clear lean to SpVgg Greuther Fürth (57%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (2.03 / 1.18) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SpVgg Greuther Fürth as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.21 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 10 home games and Hansa Rostock's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 50% (last 10 home games) | Hansa Rostock 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hansa Rostock | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 9 | Venue: Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer • Kick-off: Saturday 7 October 2023 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 57% | Draw 22% | Hansa Rostock 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% (Under 38%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2.03 / Hansa Rostock 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.208 / def 1.063 | Hansa Rostock attack 0.838 / def 0.993 | league avg home 1.691 / away 1.322 • Poisson stance: SpVgg Greuther Fürth (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.03
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Hansa Rostock xG
60%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hansa Rostock FAQs
What time does SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hansa Rostock kick off?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hansa Rostock kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 7 October 2023 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What was the final score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hansa Rostock?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1 - 0 Hansa Rostock.
Where is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hansa Rostock being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What competition is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hansa Rostock part of?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hansa Rostock is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 9) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hansa Rostock?
Our statistical model gives SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 57% chance of winning, Hansa Rostock a 21% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making SpVgg Greuther Fürth the favourite.
Will both teams score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hansa Rostock?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hansa Rostock will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hansa Rostock have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against Hansa Rostock's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.03. The same calculation in reverse, Hansa Rostock's attack versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 42 games and Hansa Rostock's last 42 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SpVgg Greuther Fürth Win
57%
1.76
22%
4.57
21%
4.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
2 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.03
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Total xG
3.21
1.18
Hansa Rostock xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.57
22%
Draw
4.67
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
13%
7.60
Win to Nil
17%
5.73
3%
35.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.6 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hansa Rostock Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hansa Rostock?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hansa Rostock expected to score?
The model projects 2.03 expected goals for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1.18 for Hansa Rostock, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hansa Rostock?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's recent record stands at 12W 14D 16L from 42 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-D in the last five.
Hansa Rostock, meanwhile, have gone 16W 5D 21L across 42 games — 1.26 PPG, with W-L-L-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: SpVgg Greuther Fürth on 1.19 PPG, Hansa Rostock on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have managed 10W 7D 3L from their last 20 home games — 1.85 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.19 PPG overall — SpVgg Greuther Fürth are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Hansa Rostock's away record stands at 7W 4D 9L across their last 20 away games, a 1.25 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SpVgg Greuther Fürth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Hansa Rostock are on 1.00 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SpVgg Greuther Fürth have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 42 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
Hansa Rostock
Blended
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (Home) vs Hansa Rostock (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
Hansa Rostock
Blended
❓ SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hansa Rostock Form FAQs
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hansa Rostock in coming into this match?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 12W 14D 16L in their last 42 games (1.19 PPG), while Hansa Rostock have gone 16W 5D 21L in their last 42 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home or Hansa Rostock away?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home: 1.85 PPG; Hansa Rostock away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from October 2022. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent in our data was on 16 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's record when hosting Hansa Rostock specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1
Draws
2
Hansa Rostock
Recent Meetings
❓ SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hansa Rostock H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hansa Rostock?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 1, Hansa Rostock have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hansa Rostock last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 March 2024: Hansa Rostock 1-0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Who has won more matches between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hansa Rostock?
Hansa Rostock have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Hansa Rostock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 60%, Hansa Rostock 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (SpVgg Greuther Fürth) and 45% (Hansa Rostock).
On the defensive side: SpVgg Greuther Fürth keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Hansa Rostock in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SpVgg Greuther Fürth home games / Hansa Rostock away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hansa Rostock Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hansa Rostock matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's recent matches and 35% of Hansa Rostock's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hansa Rostock matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's recent games and 45% of Hansa Rostock's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hansa Rostock matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 65% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's recent matches and 65% of Hansa Rostock's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SpVgg Greuther Fürth edge out Hansa Rostock 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SpVgg Greuther Fürth beat Hansa Rostock 1-0 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, Regular Season - 9, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2.03 xG and Hansa Rostock 1.18 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. SpVgg Greuther Fürth fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Hansa Rostock landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.21 / defence 1.06 against Hansa Rostock attack 0.84 / defence 0.99, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SpVgg Greuther Fürth 57% | Draw 22% | Hansa Rostock 21%, with SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 62%, Hansa Rostock 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Hansa Rostock's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.19 PPG, Hansa Rostock 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SpVgg Greuther Fürth win broke the near-deadlock. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. Hansa Rostock (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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