SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3-0 Fortuna Düsseldorf – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Fortuna Düsseldorf fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer plays host to SpVgg Greuther Fürth versus Fortuna Düsseldorf in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off: Sunday 17 May 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's home record at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer: 3W 4D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Fortuna Düsseldorf (all games): 4W 0D 6L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 7 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, 3 for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Dec 2025, ended 1–2 with Fortuna Düsseldorf winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
SpVgg Greuther Fürth goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Fortuna Düsseldorf goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 61% and Fortuna Düsseldorf 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 63% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.44 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.946 / defence 1.180 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.632 / defence 0.938. League average goals — home 1.620 / away 1.258. Data: 67 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games / 67 Fortuna Düsseldorf games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 47% | Draw 30% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 23%. Fair-value odds: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2.13 | Draw 3.33 | Fortuna Düsseldorf 4.35. SpVgg Greuther Fürth hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SpVgg Greuther Fürth as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SpVgg Greuther Fürth if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 60% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Fortuna Düsseldorf | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer • Kick-off: Sunday 17 May 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 47% | Draw 30% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.44 / Fortuna Düsseldorf 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.946 / def 1.180 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.632 / def 0.938 | league avg home 1.620 / away 1.258 • Poisson stance: SpVgg Greuther Fürth (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kick off?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 17 May 2026 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What was the final score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3 - 0 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Where is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Fortuna Düsseldorf being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What competition is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Fortuna Düsseldorf part of?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Fortuna Düsseldorf is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our statistical model gives SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 47% chance of winning, Fortuna Düsseldorf a 23% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making SpVgg Greuther Fürth the favourite.
Will both teams score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Fortuna Düsseldorf will score (BTTS).
Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Fortuna Düsseldorf have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Record (7 meetings): SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3W | Draws 1 | Fortuna Düsseldorf 3W.
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Fortuna Düsseldorf in?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. Fortuna Düsseldorf (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack at 0.95x the league average against Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Fortuna Düsseldorf's attack (0.63x) against SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SpVgg Greuther Fürth Win
47%
2.13
30%
3.32
23%
4.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Total xG
2.38
0.94
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
4.36
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
24%
4.21
Win to Nil
18%
5.44
5%
18.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 12.5 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.0 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Fortuna Düsseldorf expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 0.94 for Fortuna Düsseldorf, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 67 outings, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 19W 16D 32L record — D-W-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's form line: 25W 15D 27L from 67 games, 1.34 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.09 PPG for SpVgg Greuther Fürth against 1.34 for Fortuna Düsseldorf. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have posted 1.30 PPG from 33 outings (11W 10D 12L).
On the road, Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 11W 7D 15L from 33 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game recently; Fortuna Düsseldorf are on 1.34 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SpVgg Greuther Fürth have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 67 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Current Season
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Fortuna Düsseldorf in coming into this match?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 19W 16D 32L in their last 67 games (1.09 PPG), while Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 25W 15D 27L in their last 67 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home or Fortuna Düsseldorf away?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home: 1.30 PPG; Fortuna Düsseldorf away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SpVgg Greuther Fürth won 3-0 on 17 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Fortuna Düsseldorf — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1
Draws
3
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
From 8 meetings on record, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 4, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Fortuna Düsseldorf last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3-0 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Who has won more matches between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Fortuna Düsseldorf are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 64%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (SpVgg Greuther Fürth) and 52% (Fortuna Düsseldorf). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SpVgg Greuther Fürth home games / Fortuna Düsseldorf away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SpVgg Greuther Fürth play Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's games and 61% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Fortuna Düsseldorf usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's matches and 52% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's.
Do SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Fortuna Düsseldorf tend to score early?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Fortuna Düsseldorf in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SpVgg Greuther Fürth run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Fortuna Düsseldorf.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SpVgg Greuther Fürth beat Fortuna Düsseldorf 3-0 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, Regular Season - 34, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.44 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 0.94 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. SpVgg Greuther Fürth beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Fortuna Düsseldorf landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.95 / defence 1.18 against Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.63 / defence 0.94, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SpVgg Greuther Fürth 47% | Draw 30% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 23%, with SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 63%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.09 PPG, Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SpVgg Greuther Fürth win broke the near-deadlock. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.48 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line. Fortuna Düsseldorf (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.