SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0-0 FC St. Pauli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs FC St. Pauli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer plays host to SpVgg Greuther Fürth versus FC St. Pauli in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Saturday 19 August 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. SpVgg Greuther Fürth have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — SpVgg Greuther Fürth are significantly better at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer than their overall form suggests.
FC St. Pauli have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D W D W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. FC St. Pauli have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC St. Pauli away from home this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 away games — 2.50 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.70 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.50 exceeds their overall 1.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, 1 for FC St. Pauli and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 11 Mar 2023, ended 1–2 with FC St. Pauli winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
SpVgg Greuther Fürth goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 89% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
FC St. Pauli goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 69% versus FC St. Pauli 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 64% | FC St. Pauli 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.95 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.356 / defence 0.822 | FC St. Pauli attack 1.261 / defence 0.908. League average goals — home 1.583 / away 1.298. SpVgg Greuther Fürth carry an above-average attack strength of 1.356 — their λ of 1.95 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. FC St. Pauli have an above-average attack strength of 1.261 — the away xG of 1.34 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 36 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games / 36 FC St. Pauli games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 52% | Draw 22% | FC St. Pauli 26%. Fair-value odds: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.92 | Draw 4.55 | FC St. Pauli 3.85. SpVgg Greuther Fürth hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.95 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SpVgg Greuther Fürth if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.29 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 40% | FC St. Pauli 60%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs FC St. Pauli | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Aug 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 52% | Draw 22% | FC St. Pauli 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 63% | xG SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.95 / FC St. Pauli 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.356 / def 0.822 | FC St. Pauli attack 1.261 / def 0.908 | league avg home 1.583 / away 1.298 • Poisson stance: SpVgg Greuther Fürth (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Expected Goals
1.34
FC St. Pauli xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs FC St. Pauli kick off?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs FC St. Pauli kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 19 August 2023 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What was the final score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs FC St. Pauli?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0 - 0 FC St. Pauli.
Where is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs FC St. Pauli being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What competition is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs FC St. Pauli part of?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs FC St. Pauli is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs FC St. Pauli?
Our statistical model gives SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 52% chance of winning, FC St. Pauli a 26% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making SpVgg Greuther Fürth the favourite.
Will both teams score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs FC St. Pauli?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both SpVgg Greuther Fürth and FC St. Pauli will score (BTTS).
Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs FC St. Pauli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and FC St. Pauli?
Record (2 meetings): SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0W | Draws 1 | FC St. Pauli 1W.
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and FC St. Pauli in?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. FC St. Pauli (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack at 1.36x the league average against FC St. Pauli's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.95 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC St. Pauli's attack (1.26x) against SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
The sample (36/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SpVgg Greuther Fürth Win
52%
1.94
22%
4.55
26%
3.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Total xG
3.29
1.34
FC St. Pauli xG
1.94
52%
Home win
4.55
22%
Draw
3.79
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.73
Clean Sheet
26%
3.84
14%
7.03
Win to Nil
13%
7.44
4%
26.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 5.0 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 9.7 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.5 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 6.2 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs FC St. Pauli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and FC St. Pauli expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1.34 for FC St. Pauli, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs FC St. Pauli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
SpVgg Greuther Fürth come into this having played 36 games, going 11W 11D 14L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, FC St. Pauli sit at 1.72 PPG from 36 outings (17W 11D 8L), a run that reads D-W-D-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for FC St. Pauli, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC St. Pauli carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of SpVgg Greuther Fürth — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's home form reads 9W 7D 2L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.89 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.22 PPG overall — SpVgg Greuther Fürth are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, FC St. Pauli have taken 1.50 points per game from 18 outings (8W 3D 7L).
Attack vs Defence
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; FC St. Pauli are on 1.58 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SpVgg Greuther Fürth have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Defensively: FC St. Pauli in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Early Season
FC St. Pauli
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and FC St. Pauli in coming into this match?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 11W 11D 14L in their last 36 games (1.22 PPG), while FC St. Pauli have gone 17W 11D 8L in their last 36 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home or FC St. Pauli away?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home: 1.89 PPG; FC St. Pauli away: 1.50 PPG.
Have SpVgg Greuther Fürth or FC St. Pauli been keeping clean sheets recently?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, FC St. Pauli in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against FC St. Pauli — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
0
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
3
Draws
2
FC St. Pauli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and FC St. Pauli?
From 5 meetings on record, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 0, FC St. Pauli have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did SpVgg Greuther Fürth and FC St. Pauli last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when FC St. Pauli 1-1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Who has won more matches between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and FC St. Pauli?
FC St. Pauli have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 61%, FC St. Pauli 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 67% for FC St. Pauli. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SpVgg Greuther Fürth keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SpVgg Greuther Fürth home games / FC St. Pauli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SpVgg Greuther Fürth play FC St. Pauli?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's games and 56% of FC St. Pauli's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs FC St. Pauli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's matches and 67% of FC St. Pauli's.
Do SpVgg Greuther Fürth and FC St. Pauli tend to score early?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, FC St. Pauli in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at SpVgg Greuther Fürth's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SpVgg Greuther Fürth and FC St. Pauli finished level at 0-0 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, Regular Season - 3, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.95 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.34 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. SpVgg Greuther Fürth fell 1.9 short of their projected output. FC St. Pauli landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.36 / defence 0.82 against FC St. Pauli attack 1.26 / defence 0.91, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it SpVgg Greuther Fürth 52% | Draw 22% | FC St. Pauli 26%, with SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 64%, FC St. Pauli 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, FC St. Pauli arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.22. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.61 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.