SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2-1 1. FC Nürnberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SpVgg Greuther Fürth host 1. FC Nürnberg at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 25 February 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
SpVgg Greuther Fürth — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's home record at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer: 6W 2D 2L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, 1. FC Nürnberg have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Nürnberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Nürnberg's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, 1 for 1. FC Nürnberg and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 15 Sep 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
SpVgg Greuther Fürth in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 77% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
1. FC Nürnberg in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 62% versus 1. FC Nürnberg 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 57% | 1. FC Nürnberg 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.88 xG and 1. FC Nürnberg 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.058 / defence 0.843 | 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.881 / defence 1.118. League average goals — home 1.588 / away 1.399. Data: 56 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games / 56 1. FC Nürnberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 57% | Draw 22% | 1. FC Nürnberg 21%. Fair-value odds: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.75 | Draw 4.55 | 1. FC Nürnberg 4.76. The model has a clear lean to SpVgg Greuther Fürth (57%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SpVgg Greuther Fürth are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.92 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 50% | 1. FC Nürnberg 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Feb 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 57% | Draw 22% | 1. FC Nürnberg 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 55% | xG SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.88 / 1. FC Nürnberg 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.058 / def 0.843 | 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.881 / def 1.118 | league avg home 1.588 / away 1.399 • Poisson stance: SpVgg Greuther Fürth (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Expected Goals
1.04
1. FC Nürnberg xG
55%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg kick off?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 25 February 2024 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What was the final score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2 - 1 1. FC Nürnberg.
Where is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What competition is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg part of?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our statistical model gives SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 57% chance of winning, 1. FC Nürnberg a 21% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making SpVgg Greuther Fürth the favourite.
Will both teams score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Nürnberg will score (BTTS).
Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Nürnberg?
Record (3 meetings): SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1W | Draws 1 | 1. FC Nürnberg 1W.
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Nürnberg in?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. 1. FC Nürnberg (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack at 1.06x the league average against 1. FC Nürnberg's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.88 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, 1. FC Nürnberg's attack versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SpVgg Greuther Fürth Win
57%
1.76
22%
4.47
21%
4.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Total xG
2.92
1.04
1. FC Nürnberg xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.47
22%
Draw
4.84
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
15%
6.53
Win to Nil
20%
4.96
3%
31.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 10.6 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Nürnberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1.04 for 1. FC Nürnberg, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's recent record stands at 20W 16D 20L from 56 games, a 1.36 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for SpVgg Greuther Fürth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
1. FC Nürnberg, meanwhile, have gone 18W 15D 23L across 56 games — 1.23 PPG, with W-L-D-D-D in their last five. The sample for 1. FC Nürnberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: SpVgg Greuther Fürth on 1.36 PPG, 1. FC Nürnberg on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have managed 15W 9D 4L from 28 games — 1.93 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.36 PPG overall — SpVgg Greuther Fürth are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
1. FC Nürnberg's away record stands at 7W 7D 14L across 28 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SpVgg Greuther Fürth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Nürnberg are on 1.12 scored and 1.59 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SpVgg Greuther Fürth have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 56 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
1. FC Nürnberg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Nürnberg in coming into this match?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 20W 16D 20L in their last 56 games (1.36 PPG), while 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 18W 15D 23L in their last 56 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home or 1. FC Nürnberg away?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home: 1.93 PPG; 1. FC Nürnberg away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Nürnberg runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Oct 2024, when 1. FC Nürnberg won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's record when hosting 1. FC Nürnberg specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
3
Draws
3
1. FC Nürnberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Nürnberg?
From 8 meetings on record, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 2, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Nürnberg last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1-1 1. FC Nürnberg.
Who has won more matches between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Nürnberg?
1. FC Nürnberg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
1. FC Nürnberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 57%, 1. FC Nürnberg 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (SpVgg Greuther Fürth) and 61% (1. FC Nürnberg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SpVgg Greuther Fürth keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; 1. FC Nürnberg in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SpVgg Greuther Fürth home games / 1. FC Nürnberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SpVgg Greuther Fürth play 1. FC Nürnberg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's recent matches and 50% of 1. FC Nürnberg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's matches and 61% of 1. FC Nürnberg's.
Do SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Nürnberg tend to score early?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, 1. FC Nürnberg in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SpVgg Greuther Fürth edge out 1. FC Nürnberg 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SpVgg Greuther Fürth beat 1. FC Nürnberg 2-1 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, Regular Season - 23, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.88 xG and 1. FC Nürnberg 1.04 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.06 / defence 0.84 against 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.88 / defence 1.12, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SpVgg Greuther Fürth 57% | Draw 22% | 1. FC Nürnberg 21%, with SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 57%, 1. FC Nürnberg 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.36 PPG, 1. FC Nürnberg 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SpVgg Greuther Fürth win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.