SC Paderborn 07 4-2 Hannover 96 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SC Paderborn 07 at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this SC Paderborn 07 vs Hannover 96 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Hannover 96 travel to Home Deluxe Arena to take on SC Paderborn 07. The game is scheduled for Saturday 6 August 2022, 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
SC Paderborn 07 — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: D W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. SC Paderborn 07 have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SC Paderborn 07's home record at Home Deluxe Arena: 3W 4D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (1.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Hannover 96 have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Hannover 96 have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hannover 96's form when playing away from home: 4W 0D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
SC Paderborn 07 are in the better shape of the two on current 2. Bundesliga data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for SC Paderborn 07, 0 for Hannover 96 and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 24 Apr 2022, ended 3–0 with SC Paderborn 07 winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
SC Paderborn 07 trading profile (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Hannover 96 trading profile (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Paderborn 07 61% versus Hannover 96 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Paderborn 07 61% | Hannover 96 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 2.24 xG and Hannover 96 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.359 / defence 0.864 | Hannover 96 attack 0.938 / defence 1.105. League average goals — home 1.491 / away 1.359. SC Paderborn 07 carry an above-average attack strength of 1.359 — their λ of 2.24 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 36 SC Paderborn 07 games / 36 Hannover 96 games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 62% | Draw 21% | Hannover 96 17%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 1.61 | Draw 4.76 | Hannover 96 5.88. The model has a clear lean to SC Paderborn 07 (62%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.24 / 1.10) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SC Paderborn 07 as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.34 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SC Paderborn 07 50% | Hannover 96 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Paderborn 07 vs Hannover 96 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Home Deluxe Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Aug 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 62% | Draw 21% | Hannover 96 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 60% | xG SC Paderborn 07 2.24 / Hannover 96 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.359 / def 0.864 | Hannover 96 attack 0.938 / def 1.105 | league avg home 1.491 / away 1.359 • Poisson stance: SC Paderborn 07 (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.24
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Hannover 96 xG
60%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Paderborn 07 vs Hannover 96 kick off?
SC Paderborn 07 vs Hannover 96 kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 6 August 2022 at Home Deluxe Arena.
What was the final score in SC Paderborn 07 vs Hannover 96?
SC Paderborn 07 4 - 2 Hannover 96.
Where is SC Paderborn 07 vs Hannover 96 being played?
The match is being played at Home Deluxe Arena.
What competition is SC Paderborn 07 vs Hannover 96 part of?
SC Paderborn 07 vs Hannover 96 is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Paderborn 07 vs Hannover 96?
Our statistical model gives SC Paderborn 07 a 62% chance of winning, Hannover 96 a 17% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making SC Paderborn 07 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Paderborn 07 vs Hannover 96?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both SC Paderborn 07 and Hannover 96 will score (BTTS).
Will SC Paderborn 07 vs Hannover 96 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and Hannover 96?
Record (2 meetings): SC Paderborn 07 1W | Draws 1 | Hannover 96 0W.
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and Hannover 96 in?
SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Hannover 96 (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates SC Paderborn 07's attack at 1.36x the league average against Hannover 96's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 2.24 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hannover 96's attack versus SC Paderborn 07's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (36/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Paderborn 07 Win
62%
1.60
21%
4.85
17%
5.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.9%
Home win
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.24
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Total xG
3.34
1.10
Hannover 96 xG
1.60
62%
Home win
4.85
21%
Draw
5.90
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
11%
9.39
Win to Nil
21%
4.82
2%
55.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 7.9 | 8.7 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 7.3 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Paderborn 07 vs Hannover 96?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are SC Paderborn 07 and Hannover 96 expected to score?
The model projects 2.24 expected goals for SC Paderborn 07 and 1.10 for Hannover 96, a combined total of 3.34.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Paderborn 07 vs Hannover 96?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 36 outings, SC Paderborn 07 have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 14W 12D 10L record — D-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Hannover 96's form line: 11W 10D 15L from 36 games, 1.19 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-D. It's still early in the season for Hannover 96, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: SC Paderborn 07 on 1.50 PPG, Hannover 96 on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, SC Paderborn 07 have posted 1.22 PPG from 18 outings (5W 7D 6L).
On the road, Hannover 96 have gone 5W 3D 10L from 18 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
SC Paderborn 07 are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Hannover 96 are on 1.06 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Paderborn 07 have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 36 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Paderborn 07
Early Season
Hannover 96
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and Hannover 96 in coming into this match?
SC Paderborn 07 have gone 14W 12D 10L in their last 36 games (1.50 PPG), while Hannover 96 have gone 11W 10D 15L in their last 36 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Paderborn 07 at home or Hannover 96 away?
SC Paderborn 07's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Paderborn 07 at home: 1.22 PPG; Hannover 96 away: 1.00 PPG.
Have SC Paderborn 07 or Hannover 96 been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Paderborn 07 have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Hannover 96 in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SC Paderborn 07 and Hannover 96 runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Apr 2022, when SC Paderborn 07 won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SC Paderborn 07's record when hosting Hannover 96 specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
SC Paderborn 07
3
Draws
2
Hannover 96
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and Hannover 96?
From 10 meetings on record, SC Paderborn 07 have won 5, Hannover 96 have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did SC Paderborn 07 and Hannover 96 last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Hannover 96 1-1 SC Paderborn 07.
Who has won more matches between SC Paderborn 07 and Hannover 96?
SC Paderborn 07 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Hannover 96 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Paderborn 07 67%, Hannover 96 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for SC Paderborn 07 and 72% for Hannover 96. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hannover 96 in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Paderborn 07 home games / Hannover 96 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Paderborn 07 play Hannover 96?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of SC Paderborn 07's games and 56% of Hannover 96's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Paderborn 07 vs Hannover 96 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of SC Paderborn 07's matches and 72% of Hannover 96's.
Do SC Paderborn 07 and Hannover 96 tend to score early?
SC Paderborn 07 have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Hannover 96 in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SC Paderborn 07 cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Hannover 96.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Paderborn 07 beat Hannover 96 4-2 at Home Deluxe Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Paderborn 07 2.24 xG and Hannover 96 1.10 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. SC Paderborn 07 beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Hannover 96 outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.36 / defence 0.86 against Hannover 96 attack 0.94 / defence 1.10, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it SC Paderborn 07 62% | Draw 21% | Hannover 96 17%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 62%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Paderborn 07 61%, Hannover 96 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Hannover 96's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SC Paderborn 07 1.50 PPG, Hannover 96 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SC Paderborn 07 win broke the near-deadlock. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.72 average — above their attacking norm. Hannover 96 (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.