SC Paderborn 07 1-0 1. FC Magdeburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SC Paderborn 07 at 81% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Magdeburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
1. FC Magdeburg make the trip to Home Deluxe Arena to face SC Paderborn 07 in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Saturday 3 September 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
SC Paderborn 07 have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: L W W W D. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. SC Paderborn 07 have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Home Deluxe Arena, SC Paderborn 07 have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
1. FC Magdeburg (all games): 1W 1D 4L across 6 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 0.67 points per game. Last five: W L L L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.83. Conceding 2.83 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. 1. FC Magdeburg have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 away fixtures this term (1.33 PPG). They are averaging 2.33 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.33 exceeds their overall 0.67 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 1.33 in SC Paderborn 07's favour (2.00 vs 0.67) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — SC Paderborn 07 have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, 1. FC Magdeburg in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
SC Paderborn 07 half-time and goal-timing data (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%.
1. FC Magdeburg half-time and goal-timing data (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Paderborn 07 67% and 1. FC Magdeburg 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SC Paderborn 07 83% | 1. FC Magdeburg 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 4.07 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.756 / defence 0.931 | 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.140 / defence 1.419. League average goals — home 1.633 / away 1.451. SC Paderborn 07 carry an above-average attack strength of 1.756 — their λ of 4.07 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. 1. FC Magdeburg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.419 — this is suppressing SC Paderborn 07's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 40 SC Paderborn 07 games / 6 1. FC Magdeburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 81% | Draw 10% | 1. FC Magdeburg 9%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 1.23 | Draw 10.00 | 1. FC Magdeburg 11.11. The model has a clear lean to SC Paderborn 07 (81%) — a 72pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 92% | BTTS probability 77% | Total xG 5.61. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 92% — a total xG of 5.61 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 77% reflects that both xG figures (4.07 / 1.54) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SC Paderborn 07 at 81% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 5.61 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 92% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 4.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 77% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SC Paderborn 07 60% | 1. FC Magdeburg 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Magdeburg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Home Deluxe Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Sep 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 81% | Draw 10% | 1. FC Magdeburg 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 92% | BTTS 77% | xG SC Paderborn 07 4.07 / 1. FC Magdeburg 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.756 / def 0.931 | 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.140 / def 1.419 | league avg home 1.633 / away 1.451 • Poisson stance: SC Paderborn 07 (81%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
4.07
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Expected Goals
1.54
1. FC Magdeburg xG
77%
BTTS
98%
Over 1.5
92%
Over 2.5
81%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Magdeburg kick off?
SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Magdeburg kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 3 September 2022 at Home Deluxe Arena.
What was the final score in SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
SC Paderborn 07 1 - 0 1. FC Magdeburg.
Where is SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Magdeburg being played?
The match is being played at Home Deluxe Arena.
What competition is SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Magdeburg part of?
SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Magdeburg is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our statistical model gives SC Paderborn 07 a 81% chance of winning, 1. FC Magdeburg a 9% chance, and a 10% chance of a draw — making SC Paderborn 07 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our model estimates a 77% probability that both SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Magdeburg will score (BTTS).
Will SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Magdeburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 92%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Magdeburg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Magdeburg in?
SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. 1. FC Magdeburg (all comps): 1W-1D-4L in 6 | 0.67 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.83 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
SC Paderborn 07's attacking strength (1.76x league average) is weighed against 1. FC Magdeburg's defensive record (1.42x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 4.07. Flip it around — 1. FC Magdeburg's attack (1.14x) against SC Paderborn 07's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.54.
These ratings are built from 40/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 4-1, at 6.4%. Close behind: 3-1 (6.3%), 5-1 (5.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 18% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Paderborn 07 Win
81%
1.24
10%
9.96
9%
10.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
4 – 1
6.4%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
6.3%
Home win
5 – 1
5.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
4.07
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Total xG
5.61
1.54
1. FC Magdeburg xG
1.24
81%
Home win
9.96
10%
Draw
10.86
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
98%
Over 1.5
1.02
2%
Under 1.5
50.00
92%
Over 2.5
1.09
8%
Under 2.5
12.50
81%
Over 3.5
1.23
19%
Under 3.5
5.26
66%
Over 4.5
1.52
34%
Under 4.5
2.94
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
77%
BTTS Yes
1.30
23%
BTTS No
4.39
Clean Sheet
21%
4.66
2%
58.50
Win to Nil
17%
5.78
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 4.7 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 6.3 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 4.2 | 6.4 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 3.4 | 5.2 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our Poisson model rates 4-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 6.4%.
How many goals are SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Magdeburg expected to score?
The model projects 4.07 expected goals for SC Paderborn 07 and 1.54 for 1. FC Magdeburg, a combined total of 5.61.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 81%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
SC Paderborn 07 come into this having played 6 games, going 4W 1D 1L for 2.17 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, 1. FC Magdeburg sit at 0.67 PPG from 6 outings (1W 1D 4L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for 1. FC Magdeburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
SC Paderborn 07 carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.50 PPG clear of 1. FC Magdeburg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
SC Paderborn 07's home form reads 3W 0D 0L across 3 games on their own ground, a 3.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.17 PPG overall — SC Paderborn 07 are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, 1. FC Magdeburg have taken 1.33 points per game from 3 outings (1W 1D 1L). That's actually stronger than their 0.67 PPG overall record — 1. FC Magdeburg travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Paderborn 07 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
SC Paderborn 07 are averaging 3.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Magdeburg are on 1.50 scored and 2.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Paderborn 07 have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; 1. FC Magdeburg in 67%.
Last 6 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Paderborn 07
Early Season
1. FC Magdeburg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Magdeburg in coming into this match?
SC Paderborn 07 have gone 4W 1D 1L in their last 6 games (2.17 PPG), while 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 1W 1D 4L in their last 6 (0.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Paderborn 07 at home or 1. FC Magdeburg away?
SC Paderborn 07's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Paderborn 07 at home: 3.00 PPG; 1. FC Magdeburg away: 1.33 PPG.
Have SC Paderborn 07 or 1. FC Magdeburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Paderborn 07 have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, 1. FC Magdeburg in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: SC Paderborn 07 have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SC Paderborn 07 have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against 1. FC Magdeburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
SC Paderborn 07
4
Draws
0
1. FC Magdeburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Magdeburg?
From 8 meetings on record, SC Paderborn 07 have won 4, 1. FC Magdeburg have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Magdeburg last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when SC Paderborn 07 4-3 1. FC Magdeburg.
Who has won more matches between SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Magdeburg?
SC Paderborn 07 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
1. FC Magdeburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for SC Paderborn 07, 67% for 1. FC Magdeburg — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for SC Paderborn 07 and 100% for 1. FC Magdeburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 100% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SC Paderborn 07 keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; 1. FC Magdeburg in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Paderborn 07 home games / 1. FC Magdeburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Paderborn 07 play 1. FC Magdeburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of SC Paderborn 07's games and 67% of 1. FC Magdeburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Magdeburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of SC Paderborn 07's matches and 100% of 1. FC Magdeburg's.
Do SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Magdeburg tend to score early?
SC Paderborn 07 have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, 1. FC Magdeburg in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SC Paderborn 07 edge out 1. FC Magdeburg 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Paderborn 07 beat 1. FC Magdeburg 1-0 at Home Deluxe Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Paderborn 07 4.07 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 1.54 xG, a combined 5.61. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. SC Paderborn 07 fell 3.1 short of their projected output. 1. FC Magdeburg landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.76 / defence 0.93 against 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.14 / defence 1.42, drawn from 40/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Paderborn 07 81% | Draw 10% | 1. FC Magdeburg 9%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 81%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 92%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 98% and missed. Over 3.5 was 81% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 77% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 92% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Paderborn 07 83%, 1. FC Magdeburg 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Paderborn 07 arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 0.67. The form guide was vindicated by the result. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 5.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. 1. FC Magdeburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.