SC Paderborn 07 0-0 1. FC Magdeburg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates SC Paderborn 07 at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Magdeburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
1. FC Magdeburg make the trip to Home Deluxe Arena to face SC Paderborn 07 in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Sunday 3 March 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
SC Paderborn 07 have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: D W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Home Deluxe Arena, SC Paderborn 07 have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
1. FC Magdeburg (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: L D W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Magdeburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.90 for SC Paderborn 07, 1.70 for 1. FC Magdeburg — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: SC Paderborn 07 1W, 1. FC Magdeburg 0W, 2D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Sep 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
SC Paderborn 07 half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
1. FC Magdeburg half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Paderborn 07 61% and 1. FC Magdeburg 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SC Paderborn 07 74% | 1. FC Magdeburg 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 1.60 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.987 / defence 1.218 | 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.937 / defence 1.014. League average goals — home 1.604 / away 1.372. Data: 57 SC Paderborn 07 games / 57 1. FC Magdeburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 39% | Draw 24% | 1. FC Magdeburg 37%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 2.56 | Draw 4.17 | 1. FC Magdeburg 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.60 / 1.57) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SC Paderborn 07 at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SC Paderborn 07 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.17 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SC Paderborn 07 60% | 1. FC Magdeburg 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Magdeburg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Home Deluxe Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Mar 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 39% | Draw 24% | 1. FC Magdeburg 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG SC Paderborn 07 1.60 / 1. FC Magdeburg 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.987 / def 1.218 | 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.937 / def 1.014 | league avg home 1.604 / away 1.372 • Poisson stance: SC Paderborn 07 (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Expected Goals
1.57
1. FC Magdeburg xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Magdeburg kick off?
SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Magdeburg kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 3 March 2024 at Home Deluxe Arena.
What was the final score in SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
SC Paderborn 07 0 - 0 1. FC Magdeburg.
Where is SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Magdeburg being played?
The match is being played at Home Deluxe Arena.
What competition is SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Magdeburg part of?
SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Magdeburg is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our statistical model gives SC Paderborn 07 a 39% chance of winning, 1. FC Magdeburg a 37% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making SC Paderborn 07 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Magdeburg will score (BTTS).
Will SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Magdeburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Magdeburg?
Record (3 meetings): SC Paderborn 07 1W | Draws 2 | 1. FC Magdeburg 0W.
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Magdeburg in?
SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. 1. FC Magdeburg (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
SC Paderborn 07's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against 1. FC Magdeburg's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.60. Flip it around — 1. FC Magdeburg's attack (0.94x) against SC Paderborn 07's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.57.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Paderborn 07 Win
39%
2.56
24%
4.25
37%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Total xG
3.17
1.57
1. FC Magdeburg xG
2.56
39%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
2.67
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
21%
4.79
20%
4.98
Win to Nil
8%
12.26
8%
13.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 6.6 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 10.5 | 8.3 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.5 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Magdeburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for SC Paderborn 07 and 1.57 for 1. FC Magdeburg, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
SC Paderborn 07 come into this having played 57 games, going 27W 11D 19L for 1.61 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-W. The sample for SC Paderborn 07 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, 1. FC Magdeburg sit at 1.28 PPG from 57 outings (20W 13D 24L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for 1. FC Magdeburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.61 PPG for SC Paderborn 07 against 1.28 for 1. FC Magdeburg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
SC Paderborn 07's home form reads 17W 2D 9L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.89 PPG return.
Away from home, 1. FC Magdeburg have taken 1.07 points per game from 28 outings (8W 6D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Paderborn 07 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
SC Paderborn 07 are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Magdeburg are on 1.51 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Paderborn 07 have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; 1. FC Magdeburg in 61%.
Last 57 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Paderborn 07
Blended
1. FC Magdeburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Magdeburg in coming into this match?
SC Paderborn 07 have gone 27W 11D 19L in their last 57 games (1.61 PPG), while 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 20W 13D 24L in their last 57 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Paderborn 07 at home or 1. FC Magdeburg away?
SC Paderborn 07's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Paderborn 07 at home: 1.89 PPG; 1. FC Magdeburg away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: SC Paderborn 07 have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SC Paderborn 07 have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against 1. FC Magdeburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
SC Paderborn 07
4
Draws
0
1. FC Magdeburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Magdeburg?
From 8 meetings on record, SC Paderborn 07 have won 4, 1. FC Magdeburg have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Magdeburg last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when SC Paderborn 07 4-3 1. FC Magdeburg.
Who has won more matches between SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Magdeburg?
SC Paderborn 07 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
1. FC Magdeburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Paderborn 07 57%, 1. FC Magdeburg 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for SC Paderborn 07 and 61% for 1. FC Magdeburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Magdeburg in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Paderborn 07 home games / 1. FC Magdeburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Paderborn 07 play 1. FC Magdeburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of SC Paderborn 07's games and 61% of 1. FC Magdeburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Magdeburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of SC Paderborn 07's matches and 61% of 1. FC Magdeburg's.
Do SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Magdeburg tend to score early?
SC Paderborn 07 have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, 1. FC Magdeburg in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at SC Paderborn 07's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Magdeburg finished level at 0-0 at Home Deluxe Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Paderborn 07 1.60 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 1.57 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. SC Paderborn 07 fell 1.6 short of their projected output. 1. FC Magdeburg landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.99 / defence 1.22 against 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.94 / defence 1.01, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Paderborn 07 39% | Draw 24% | 1. FC Magdeburg 37%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Paderborn 07 74%, 1. FC Magdeburg 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SC Paderborn 07 1.61 PPG, 1. FC Magdeburg 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line. 1. FC Magdeburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.79 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.