SSV Jahn Regensburg 0-2 SV Darmstadt 98 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SV Darmstadt 98 at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SSV Jahn Regensburg and SV Darmstadt 98 meet at Jahnstadion Regensburg in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 19 December 2021 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
SSV Jahn Regensburg's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for SSV Jahn Regensburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SSV Jahn Regensburg at Jahnstadion Regensburg this season: 5W 2D 2L from 9 home games — 1.89 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.67 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 89% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
SV Darmstadt 98 (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SV Darmstadt 98, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SV Darmstadt 98 away from home this season: 4W 2D 3L from 9 away games — 1.56 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 78% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.56 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
SV Darmstadt 98 arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — SSV Jahn Regensburg register both teams scoring in 89% of relevant games, SV Darmstadt 98 in 78%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: SSV Jahn Regensburg 1W, SV Darmstadt 98 0W, 0D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Jul 2021, ended 2–0 with SSV Jahn Regensburg winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
SSV Jahn Regensburg — key trading statistics (17 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 89% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
SV Darmstadt 98 — key trading statistics (17 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SSV Jahn Regensburg 65% versus SV Darmstadt 98 53%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SSV Jahn Regensburg 76% | SV Darmstadt 98 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.85 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 2.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 1.312 / defence 1.488 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.132 / defence 1.104. League average goals — home 1.281 / away 1.282. SSV Jahn Regensburg carry an above-average attack strength of 1.312 — their λ of 1.85 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 17 SSV Jahn Regensburg games / 17 SV Darmstadt 98 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SSV Jahn Regensburg 32% | Draw 24% | SV Darmstadt 98 44%. Fair-value odds: SSV Jahn Regensburg 3.12 | Draw 4.17 | SV Darmstadt 98 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 76% | Total xG 4.01. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 4.01 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 76% reflects that both xG figures (1.85 / 2.16) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SV Darmstadt 98 at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SV Darmstadt 98 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 4.01 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 76% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 76% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SSV Jahn Regensburg 89% | SV Darmstadt 98 78% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Jahnstadion Regensburg • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Dec 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SSV Jahn Regensburg 32% | Draw 24% | SV Darmstadt 98 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 76% | xG SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.85 / SV Darmstadt 98 2.16 • Poisson strength factors: SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 1.312 / def 1.488 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.132 / def 1.104 | league avg home 1.281 / away 1.282 • Poisson stance: SV Darmstadt 98 (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
Expected Goals
2.16
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
76%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 kick off?
SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 19 December 2021 at Jahnstadion Regensburg.
What was the final score in SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SV Darmstadt 98?
SSV Jahn Regensburg 0 - 2 SV Darmstadt 98.
Where is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 being played?
The match is being played at Jahnstadion Regensburg.
What competition is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 part of?
SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our statistical model gives SSV Jahn Regensburg a 32% chance of winning, SV Darmstadt 98 a 44% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making SV Darmstadt 98 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our model estimates a 76% probability that both SSV Jahn Regensburg and SV Darmstadt 98 will score (BTTS).
Will SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between SSV Jahn Regensburg and SV Darmstadt 98?
Record (1 meetings): SSV Jahn Regensburg 1W | Draws 0 | SV Darmstadt 98 0W.
What form are SSV Jahn Regensburg and SV Darmstadt 98 in?
SSV Jahn Regensburg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
SSV Jahn Regensburg's attacking strength (1.31x league average) is weighed against SV Darmstadt 98's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.85. Flip it around — SV Darmstadt 98's attack (1.13x) against SSV Jahn Regensburg's defence (1.49x) — and the away total comes out at 2.16.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 8.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (7.8%), 2-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Darmstadt 98 Win
32%
3.09
24%
4.22
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.2%
Draw
2 – 2
7.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
Total xG
4.01
2.16
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
3.09
32%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
57%
Over 3.5
1.75
43%
Under 3.5
2.33
37%
Over 4.5
2.70
63%
Under 4.5
1.59
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
76%
BTTS Yes
1.31
24%
BTTS No
4.21
Clean Sheet
12%
8.65
16%
6.39
Win to Nil
4%
26.77
7%
14.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 3.4 | 7.2 | 7.8 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 6.7 | 7.2 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.2%.
How many goals are SSV Jahn Regensburg and SV Darmstadt 98 expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for SSV Jahn Regensburg and 2.16 for SV Darmstadt 98, a combined total of 4.01.
How confident is the prediction model for SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
SSV Jahn Regensburg come into this having played 17 games, going 8W 4D 5L for 1.65 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-L. The sample for SSV Jahn Regensburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SV Darmstadt 98 sit at 1.88 PPG from 17 outings (10W 2D 5L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for SV Darmstadt 98 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.65 PPG for SSV Jahn Regensburg against 1.88 for SV Darmstadt 98. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
SSV Jahn Regensburg's home form reads 5W 2D 2L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.89 PPG return.
Away from home, SV Darmstadt 98 have taken 1.56 points per game from 9 outings (4W 2D 3L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SSV Jahn Regensburg are averaging 2.06 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; SV Darmstadt 98 are on 2.29 scored and 1.18 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: SSV Jahn Regensburg have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Defensively: SV Darmstadt 98 in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Blended
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SSV Jahn Regensburg and SV Darmstadt 98 in coming into this match?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 8W 4D 5L in their last 17 games (1.65 PPG), while SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 10W 2D 5L in their last 17 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SSV Jahn Regensburg at home or SV Darmstadt 98 away?
SSV Jahn Regensburg's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SSV Jahn Regensburg at home: 1.89 PPG; SV Darmstadt 98 away: 1.56 PPG.
Have SSV Jahn Regensburg or SV Darmstadt 98 been keeping clean sheets recently?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, SV Darmstadt 98 in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against SV Darmstadt 98 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
SSV Jahn Regensburg
0
Draws
3
SV Darmstadt 98
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SSV Jahn Regensburg and SV Darmstadt 98?
From 6 meetings on record, SSV Jahn Regensburg have won 3, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SSV Jahn Regensburg and SV Darmstadt 98 last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2025, when SV Darmstadt 98 3-1 SSV Jahn Regensburg.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SSV Jahn Regensburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 89% for SSV Jahn Regensburg, 78% for SV Darmstadt 98 — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for SSV Jahn Regensburg and 78% for SV Darmstadt 98. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 89% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SSV Jahn Regensburg home games / SV Darmstadt 98 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SSV Jahn Regensburg play SV Darmstadt 98?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 89% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's games and 78% of SV Darmstadt 98's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's matches and 78% of SV Darmstadt 98's.
Do SSV Jahn Regensburg and SV Darmstadt 98 tend to score early?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, SV Darmstadt 98 in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SV Darmstadt 98 cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over SSV Jahn Regensburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SV Darmstadt 98 beat SSV Jahn Regensburg 0-2 at Jahnstadion Regensburg, Regular Season - 18, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.85 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 2.16 xG, a combined 4.01. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. SSV Jahn Regensburg fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 1.31 / defence 1.49 against SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.13 / defence 1.10, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SSV Jahn Regensburg 32% | Draw 24% | SV Darmstadt 98 44%, with SV Darmstadt 98 to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 57% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 76% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 74% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SSV Jahn Regensburg 76%, SV Darmstadt 98 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SSV Jahn Regensburg's trading profile (17 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (17 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.65 PPG, SV Darmstadt 98 1.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SV Darmstadt 98 win broke the near-deadlock. SSV Jahn Regensburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.67 scoring average — below par going forward. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.