SSV Jahn Regensburg 2-3 1. FC Heidenheim – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours 1. FC Heidenheim (59%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as SSV Jahn Regensburg face 1. FC Heidenheim.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 34 as SSV Jahn Regensburg welcome 1. FC Heidenheim to Jahnstadion Regensburg. Kick-off is set for Sunday 28 May 2023 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Jahnstadion Regensburg, SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
1. FC Heidenheim — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, 1. FC Heidenheim have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. 1. FC Heidenheim's 1.80 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of SSV Jahn Regensburg's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. SSV Jahn Regensburg register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, 1. FC Heidenheim in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The previous 3 encounters between these sides heavily favour 1. FC Heidenheim, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for SSV Jahn Regensburg.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Nov 2022, ended 4–5 with 1. FC Heidenheim winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. 1. FC Heidenheim have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 4.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
SSV Jahn Regensburg in-play and half-time data (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
1. FC Heidenheim in-play and half-time data (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SSV Jahn Regensburg 49% versus 1. FC Heidenheim 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SSV Jahn Regensburg 52% | 1. FC Heidenheim 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.93 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 1.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.713 / defence 1.214 | 1. FC Heidenheim attack 1.115 / defence 0.840. League average goals — home 1.558 / away 1.354. SSV Jahn Regensburg's attack strength of 0.713 is below the league average — the 0.93 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 67 SSV Jahn Regensburg games / 67 1. FC Heidenheim games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SSV Jahn Regensburg 19% | Draw 23% | 1. FC Heidenheim 59%. Fair-value odds: SSV Jahn Regensburg 5.26 | Draw 4.35 | 1. FC Heidenheim 1.69. The model has a clear lean to 1. FC Heidenheim (59%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates 1. FC Heidenheim as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SSV Jahn Regensburg 60% | 1. FC Heidenheim 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Jahnstadion Regensburg • Kick-off: Sunday 28 May 2023, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SSV Jahn Regensburg 19% | Draw 23% | 1. FC Heidenheim 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 51% | xG SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.93 / 1. FC Heidenheim 1.83 • Poisson strength factors: SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.713 / def 1.214 | 1. FC Heidenheim attack 1.115 / def 0.840 | league avg home 1.558 / away 1.354 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Heidenheim (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
Expected Goals
1.83
1. FC Heidenheim xG
51%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim kick off?
SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 28 May 2023 at Jahnstadion Regensburg.
What was the final score in SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
SSV Jahn Regensburg 2 - 3 1. FC Heidenheim.
Where is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim being played?
The match is being played at Jahnstadion Regensburg.
What competition is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim part of?
SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our statistical model gives SSV Jahn Regensburg a 19% chance of winning, 1. FC Heidenheim a 59% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Heidenheim the favourite.
Will both teams score in SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1. FC Heidenheim will score (BTTS).
Will SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1. FC Heidenheim?
Record (3 meetings): SSV Jahn Regensburg 0W | Draws 0 | 1. FC Heidenheim 3W.
What form are SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1. FC Heidenheim in?
SSV Jahn Regensburg (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. 1. FC Heidenheim (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates SSV Jahn Regensburg's attack at 0.71x the league average against 1. FC Heidenheim's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 0.93 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, 1. FC Heidenheim's attack versus SSV Jahn Regensburg's defence, projects 1.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (10.6%), 0-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Heidenheim Win
19%
5.31
23%
4.42
59%
1.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
0 – 2
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
Total xG
2.77
1.83
1. FC Heidenheim xG
5.31
19%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
1.71
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
16%
6.25
39%
2.54
Win to Nil
3%
33.17
23%
4.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 11.5 | 10.6 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.8 | 9.9 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1. FC Heidenheim expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1.83 for 1. FC Heidenheim, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 67 outings, SSV Jahn Regensburg have picked up 1.06 PPG on a 18W 17D 32L record — D-L-L-L-W across the most recent five.
1. FC Heidenheim's form line: 33W 17D 17L from 67 games, 1.73 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-W.
Put side by side, 1. FC Heidenheim are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against SSV Jahn Regensburg.
Venue Form
On home soil, SSV Jahn Regensburg have posted 1.24 PPG from 33 outings (10W 11D 12L).
On the road, 1. FC Heidenheim have gone 11W 9D 13L from 33 away games — 1.27 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.73 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of 1. FC Heidenheim's season.
Goals in Recent Form
SSV Jahn Regensburg are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Heidenheim are on 1.60 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 67 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Current Season
1. FC Heidenheim
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1. FC Heidenheim in coming into this match?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 18W 17D 32L in their last 67 games (1.06 PPG), while 1. FC Heidenheim have gone 33W 17D 17L in their last 67 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SSV Jahn Regensburg at home or 1. FC Heidenheim away?
1. FC Heidenheim's away record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SSV Jahn Regensburg at home: 1.24 PPG; 1. FC Heidenheim away: 1.27 PPG.
Have SSV Jahn Regensburg or 1. FC Heidenheim been keeping clean sheets recently?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, 1. FC Heidenheim in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: 1. FC Heidenheim have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Dec 2021, when 1. FC Heidenheim won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SSV Jahn Regensburg's record when hosting 1. FC Heidenheim specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
SSV Jahn Regensburg
0
Draws
4
1. FC Heidenheim
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1. FC Heidenheim?
From 4 meetings on record, SSV Jahn Regensburg have won 0, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1. FC Heidenheim last play each other?
They last met on 28 May 2023, when SSV Jahn Regensburg 2-3 1. FC Heidenheim.
Who has won more matches between SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1. FC Heidenheim?
1. FC Heidenheim have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SSV Jahn Regensburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
1. FC Heidenheim see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SSV Jahn Regensburg 58%, 1. FC Heidenheim 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (SSV Jahn Regensburg) and 46% (1. FC Heidenheim).
On the defensive side: 1. FC Heidenheim in 30%; SSV Jahn Regensburg have failed to score in 27% of games; 1. FC Heidenheim in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SSV Jahn Regensburg home games / 1. FC Heidenheim away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SSV Jahn Regensburg play 1. FC Heidenheim?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's recent matches and 42% of 1. FC Heidenheim's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's recent games and 46% of 1. FC Heidenheim's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1. FC Heidenheim tend to score early?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, 1. FC Heidenheim in 48% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as 1. FC Heidenheim edge out SSV Jahn Regensburg 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Heidenheim beat SSV Jahn Regensburg 2-3 at Jahnstadion Regensburg, Regular Season - 34, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.93 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 1.83 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. SSV Jahn Regensburg beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. 1. FC Heidenheim outscored their 1.83 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.71 / defence 1.21 against 1. FC Heidenheim attack 1.11 / defence 0.84, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SSV Jahn Regensburg 19% | Draw 23% | 1. FC Heidenheim 59%, with 1. FC Heidenheim to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SSV Jahn Regensburg 52%, 1. FC Heidenheim 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SSV Jahn Regensburg's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, 1. FC Heidenheim arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was vindicated by the result. SSV Jahn Regensburg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.