SSV Jahn Regensburg 3-2 Erzgebirge AUE – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SSV Jahn Regensburg at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Erzgebirge AUE encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Erzgebirge AUE travel to Jahnstadion Regensburg to take on SSV Jahn Regensburg. The game is scheduled for Friday 24 September 2021, 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SSV Jahn Regensburg stand at 4W 2D 1L from 7 2. Bundesliga matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L D D. They are averaging 2.14 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets in 7 games (43%) reflects a solid defensive base. SSV Jahn Regensburg have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SSV Jahn Regensburg at Jahnstadion Regensburg this season: 2W 1D 0L from 3 home games — 2.33 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Erzgebirge AUE — All Games: 0W 3D 4L from 7 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.43 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.43 per game is modest, conceding 1.71 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Erzgebirge AUE have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Erzgebirge AUE's away record: 0W 2D 1L from 3 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 0.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game.
SSV Jahn Regensburg carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.57 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 0.43. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Data
SSV Jahn Regensburg trading profile (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Erzgebirge AUE trading profile (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; they fail to score in 57% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SSV Jahn Regensburg 43% versus Erzgebirge AUE 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SSV Jahn Regensburg 57% | Erzgebirge AUE 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.92 xG and Erzgebirge AUE 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 1.445 / defence 1.091 | Erzgebirge AUE attack 0.585 / defence 1.251. League average goals — home 1.064 / away 1.367. SSV Jahn Regensburg carry an above-average attack strength of 1.445 — their λ of 1.92 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Erzgebirge AUE bring a strong defensive rating of 1.251 — this is suppressing SSV Jahn Regensburg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 SSV Jahn Regensburg games / 7 Erzgebirge AUE games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SSV Jahn Regensburg 60% | Draw 26% | Erzgebirge AUE 14%. Fair-value odds: SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.67 | Draw 3.85 | Erzgebirge AUE 7.14. The model has a clear lean to SSV Jahn Regensburg (60%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SSV Jahn Regensburg as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.80 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: SSV Jahn Regensburg 67% | Erzgebirge AUE 33%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Erzgebirge AUE | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Jahnstadion Regensburg • Kick-off: Friday 24 Sep 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SSV Jahn Regensburg 60% | Draw 26% | Erzgebirge AUE 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 52% | xG SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.92 / Erzgebirge AUE 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 1.445 / def 1.091 | Erzgebirge AUE attack 0.585 / def 1.251 | league avg home 1.064 / away 1.367 • Poisson stance: SSV Jahn Regensburg (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Erzgebirge AUE xG
52%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Erzgebirge AUE kick off?
SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Erzgebirge AUE kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 24 September 2021 at Jahnstadion Regensburg.
What was the final score in SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Erzgebirge AUE?
SSV Jahn Regensburg 3 - 2 Erzgebirge AUE.
Where is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Erzgebirge AUE being played?
The match is being played at Jahnstadion Regensburg.
What competition is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Erzgebirge AUE part of?
SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Erzgebirge AUE is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Erzgebirge AUE?
Our statistical model gives SSV Jahn Regensburg a 60% chance of winning, Erzgebirge AUE a 14% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making SSV Jahn Regensburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Erzgebirge AUE?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both SSV Jahn Regensburg and Erzgebirge AUE will score (BTTS).
Will SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Erzgebirge AUE have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between SSV Jahn Regensburg and Erzgebirge AUE?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SSV Jahn Regensburg and Erzgebirge AUE in?
SSV Jahn Regensburg (all comps): 4W-2D-1L in 7 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.14 / GA 0.86 | L5 W-W-L-D-D. Erzgebirge AUE (all comps): 0W-3D-4L in 7 | 0.43 PPG | GF 0.43 / GA 1.71 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from SSV Jahn Regensburg's attack rating (1.45) and Erzgebirge AUE's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 1.92 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Erzgebirge AUE's attack versus SSV Jahn Regensburg's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SSV Jahn Regensburg Win
60%
1.67
26%
3.85
14%
7.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
Total xG
2.80
0.87
Erzgebirge AUE xG
1.67
60%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
7.03
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
15%
6.84
Win to Nil
25%
4.00
2%
48.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.7 | 10.2 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.9 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.2 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Erzgebirge AUE?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are SSV Jahn Regensburg and Erzgebirge AUE expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for SSV Jahn Regensburg and 0.87 for Erzgebirge AUE, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Erzgebirge AUE?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SSV Jahn Regensburg's recent record stands at 4W 2D 1L from 7 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for SSV Jahn Regensburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Erzgebirge AUE, meanwhile, have gone 0W 3D 4L across 7 games — 0.43 PPG, with D-L-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Erzgebirge AUE, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours SSV Jahn Regensburg by 1.57 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Erzgebirge AUE heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, SSV Jahn Regensburg have managed 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — 2.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Erzgebirge AUE's away record stands at 0W 2D 1L across 3 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SSV Jahn Regensburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SSV Jahn Regensburg are averaging 2.14 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; Erzgebirge AUE are on 0.43 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Defensively: SSV Jahn Regensburg have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Early Season
Erzgebirge AUE
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SSV Jahn Regensburg and Erzgebirge AUE in coming into this match?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 4W 2D 1L in their last 7 games (2.00 PPG), while Erzgebirge AUE have gone 0W 3D 4L in their last 7 (0.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SSV Jahn Regensburg at home or Erzgebirge AUE away?
SSV Jahn Regensburg's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SSV Jahn Regensburg at home: 2.33 PPG; Erzgebirge AUE away: 0.67 PPG.
Have SSV Jahn Regensburg or Erzgebirge AUE been keeping clean sheets recently?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Erzgebirge AUE in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SSV Jahn Regensburg and Erzgebirge AUE runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
SSV Jahn Regensburg
0
Draws
1
Erzgebirge AUE
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SSV Jahn Regensburg and Erzgebirge AUE?
From 2 meetings on record, SSV Jahn Regensburg have won 1, Erzgebirge AUE have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SSV Jahn Regensburg and Erzgebirge AUE last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2022, when Erzgebirge AUE 1-0 SSV Jahn Regensburg.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SSV Jahn Regensburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Erzgebirge AUE are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SSV Jahn Regensburg 67%, Erzgebirge AUE 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for SSV Jahn Regensburg and 33% for Erzgebirge AUE. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SSV Jahn Regensburg keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Erzgebirge AUE in 33%; Erzgebirge AUE in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SSV Jahn Regensburg home games / Erzgebirge AUE away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SSV Jahn Regensburg play Erzgebirge AUE?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's recent matches and 33% of Erzgebirge AUE's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Erzgebirge AUE usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's matches and 33% of Erzgebirge AUE's.
Do SSV Jahn Regensburg and Erzgebirge AUE tend to score early?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Erzgebirge AUE in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SSV Jahn Regensburg edge out Erzgebirge AUE 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SSV Jahn Regensburg beat Erzgebirge AUE 3-2 at Jahnstadion Regensburg, Regular Season - 8, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.92 xG and Erzgebirge AUE 0.87 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. SSV Jahn Regensburg beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Erzgebirge AUE outscored their 0.87 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 1.45 / defence 1.09 against Erzgebirge AUE attack 0.58 / defence 1.25, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SSV Jahn Regensburg 60% | Draw 26% | Erzgebirge AUE 14%, with SSV Jahn Regensburg to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SSV Jahn Regensburg 57%, Erzgebirge AUE 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SSV Jahn Regensburg's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Erzgebirge AUE's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SSV Jahn Regensburg arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.43. Form held, and they took the win. SSV Jahn Regensburg (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Erzgebirge AUE (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.33 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.