SSV Jahn Regensburg 3-1 Dynamo Dresden – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SSV Jahn Regensburg at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Dynamo Dresden encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dynamo Dresden make the trip to Jahnstadion Regensburg to face SSV Jahn Regensburg in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Friday 26 November 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
SSV Jahn Regensburg (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for SSV Jahn Regensburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SSV Jahn Regensburg's home record at Jahnstadion Regensburg: 4W 2D 1L from 7 2. Bundesliga appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.71 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 86% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — SSV Jahn Regensburg are significantly better at Jahnstadion Regensburg than their overall form suggests.
Dynamo Dresden's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 2W 0D 8L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Dynamo Dresden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, Dynamo Dresden have posted 1W 1D 5L from 7 away outings — 0.57 PPG. Away from home they average 0.86 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward SSV Jahn Regensburg. A 0.70 PPG lead over Dynamo Dresden (1.30 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading Data
SSV Jahn Regensburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Dynamo Dresden goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SSV Jahn Regensburg 64% versus Dynamo Dresden 29%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SSV Jahn Regensburg 71% | Dynamo Dresden 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SSV Jahn Regensburg 2.24 xG and Dynamo Dresden 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 1.421 / defence 1.371 | Dynamo Dresden attack 0.661 / defence 1.322. League average goals — home 1.190 / away 1.325. SSV Jahn Regensburg carry an above-average attack strength of 1.421 — their λ of 2.24 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Dynamo Dresden bring a strong defensive rating of 1.322 — this is suppressing SSV Jahn Regensburg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 SSV Jahn Regensburg games / 14 Dynamo Dresden games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SSV Jahn Regensburg 58% | Draw 25% | Dynamo Dresden 17%. Fair-value odds: SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.72 | Draw 4.00 | Dynamo Dresden 5.88. The model has a clear lean to SSV Jahn Regensburg (58%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.44. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.44 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.24 / 1.20) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SSV Jahn Regensburg as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.44 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SSV Jahn Regensburg 86% | Dynamo Dresden 57% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Dynamo Dresden | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Jahnstadion Regensburg • Kick-off: Friday 26 Nov 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SSV Jahn Regensburg 58% | Draw 25% | Dynamo Dresden 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 65% | xG SSV Jahn Regensburg 2.24 / Dynamo Dresden 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 1.421 / def 1.371 | Dynamo Dresden attack 0.661 / def 1.322 | league avg home 1.190 / away 1.325 • Poisson stance: SSV Jahn Regensburg (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.24
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Dynamo Dresden xG
65%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Dynamo Dresden kick off?
SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Dynamo Dresden kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 26 November 2021 at Jahnstadion Regensburg.
What was the final score in SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Dynamo Dresden?
SSV Jahn Regensburg 3 - 1 Dynamo Dresden.
Where is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Dynamo Dresden being played?
The match is being played at Jahnstadion Regensburg.
What competition is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Dynamo Dresden part of?
SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Dynamo Dresden is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Dynamo Dresden?
Our statistical model gives SSV Jahn Regensburg a 58% chance of winning, Dynamo Dresden a 17% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making SSV Jahn Regensburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Dynamo Dresden?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both SSV Jahn Regensburg and Dynamo Dresden will score (BTTS).
Will SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Dynamo Dresden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between SSV Jahn Regensburg and Dynamo Dresden?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SSV Jahn Regensburg and Dynamo Dresden in?
SSV Jahn Regensburg (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. Dynamo Dresden (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from SSV Jahn Regensburg's attack rating (1.42) and Dynamo Dresden's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 2.24 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Dynamo Dresden's attack (0.66x) against SSV Jahn Regensburg's defence (1.37x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SSV Jahn Regensburg Win
58%
1.72
25%
4.02
17%
5.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
2 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.24
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
Total xG
3.44
1.20
Dynamo Dresden xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
5.90
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.86
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
11%
9.37
Win to Nil
17%
5.72
2%
55.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 8.6 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 7.2 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Dynamo Dresden?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are SSV Jahn Regensburg and Dynamo Dresden expected to score?
The model projects 2.24 expected goals for SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1.20 for Dynamo Dresden, a combined total of 3.44.
How confident is the prediction model for SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Dynamo Dresden?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
SSV Jahn Regensburg's recent record stands at 7W 4D 3L from 14 games, a 1.79 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for SSV Jahn Regensburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dynamo Dresden, meanwhile, have gone 5W 1D 8L across 14 games — 1.14 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Dynamo Dresden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours SSV Jahn Regensburg by 0.65 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Dynamo Dresden heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, SSV Jahn Regensburg have managed 4W 2D 1L from 7 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dynamo Dresden's away record stands at 1W 1D 5L across 7 trips, a 0.57 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.14 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Dynamo Dresden's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SSV Jahn Regensburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
SSV Jahn Regensburg are averaging 2.14 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Dynamo Dresden are on 1.07 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SSV Jahn Regensburg have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Dynamo Dresden in 29%.
Last 14 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Blended
Dynamo Dresden
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SSV Jahn Regensburg and Dynamo Dresden in coming into this match?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 7W 4D 3L in their last 14 games (1.79 PPG), while Dynamo Dresden have gone 5W 1D 8L in their last 14 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SSV Jahn Regensburg at home or Dynamo Dresden away?
SSV Jahn Regensburg's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SSV Jahn Regensburg at home: 2.00 PPG; Dynamo Dresden away: 0.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
SSV Jahn Regensburg
1
Draws
0
Dynamo Dresden
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SSV Jahn Regensburg and Dynamo Dresden?
From 2 meetings on record, SSV Jahn Regensburg have won 1, Dynamo Dresden have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SSV Jahn Regensburg and Dynamo Dresden last play each other?
They last met on 30 April 2022, when Dynamo Dresden 1-1 SSV Jahn Regensburg.
Who has won more matches between SSV Jahn Regensburg and Dynamo Dresden?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SSV Jahn Regensburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Dynamo Dresden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 86% for SSV Jahn Regensburg, 57% for Dynamo Dresden — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for SSV Jahn Regensburg and 71% for Dynamo Dresden. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 86% and 14% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dynamo Dresden in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SSV Jahn Regensburg home games / Dynamo Dresden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SSV Jahn Regensburg play Dynamo Dresden?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 86% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's games and 57% of Dynamo Dresden's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Dynamo Dresden usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's matches and 71% of Dynamo Dresden's.
Do SSV Jahn Regensburg and Dynamo Dresden tend to score early?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Dynamo Dresden in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SSV Jahn Regensburg cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Dynamo Dresden.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SSV Jahn Regensburg beat Dynamo Dresden 3-1 at Jahnstadion Regensburg, Regular Season - 15, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SSV Jahn Regensburg 2.24 xG and Dynamo Dresden 1.20 xG, a combined 3.44. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 1.42 / defence 1.37 against Dynamo Dresden attack 0.66 / defence 1.32, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SSV Jahn Regensburg 58% | Draw 25% | Dynamo Dresden 17%, with SSV Jahn Regensburg to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SSV Jahn Regensburg 71%, Dynamo Dresden 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SSV Jahn Regensburg's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Dynamo Dresden's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SSV Jahn Regensburg arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Dynamo Dresden (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.