Holstein Kiel 1-2 SpVgg Greuther Fürth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Holstein Kiel (55%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Holstein Kiel face SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees SpVgg Greuther Fürth travel to Holstein-Stadion to take on Holstein Kiel. The game is scheduled for Saturday 31 January 2026, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Holstein Kiel stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D W W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Holstein Kiel, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Holstein-Stadion, Holstein Kiel have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have recorded 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Holstein Kiel carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.30 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Holstein Kiel, 1 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2025, ended 2–0 with Holstein Kiel winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Holstein Kiel in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Holstein Kiel 68% and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Holstein Kiel 64% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Holstein Kiel 1.84 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Holstein Kiel attack 0.898 / defence 0.835 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.953 / defence 1.432. League average goals — home 1.428 / away 1.303. SpVgg Greuther Fürth bring a strong defensive rating of 1.432 — this is suppressing Holstein Kiel's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 Holstein Kiel games / 53 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Holstein Kiel 55% | Draw 24% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 20%. Fair-value odds: Holstein Kiel 1.82 | Draw 4.17 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Holstein Kiel (55%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Holstein Kiel at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.87 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Holstein Kiel 50% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Holstein Kiel vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Holstein-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Jan 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Holstein Kiel 55% | Draw 24% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 55% | xG Holstein Kiel 1.84 / SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Holstein Kiel attack 0.898 / def 0.835 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.953 / def 1.432 | league avg home 1.428 / away 1.303 • Poisson stance: Holstein Kiel (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Holstein Kiel xG
Expected Goals
1.04
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
55%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Holstein Kiel vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kick off?
Holstein Kiel vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 31 January 2026 at Holstein-Stadion.
What was the final score in Holstein Kiel vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Holstein Kiel 1 - 2 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Where is Holstein Kiel vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth being played?
The match is being played at Holstein-Stadion.
What competition is Holstein Kiel vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth part of?
Holstein Kiel vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Holstein Kiel vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our statistical model gives Holstein Kiel a 55% chance of winning, SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 20% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Holstein Kiel the favourite.
Will both teams score in Holstein Kiel vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Holstein Kiel and SpVgg Greuther Fürth will score (BTTS).
Will Holstein Kiel vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Holstein Kiel and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Record (5 meetings): Holstein Kiel 3W | Draws 1 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1W.
What form are Holstein Kiel and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in?
Holstein Kiel (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-W-D. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Holstein Kiel's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defensive record (1.43x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.84. The same calculation in reverse, SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack versus Holstein Kiel's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Holstein Kiel Win
55%
1.81
24%
4.08
20%
4.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Holstein Kiel xG
Total xG
2.87
1.04
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
1.81
55%
Home win
4.08
24%
Draw
4.93
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
16%
6.27
Win to Nil
20%
5.11
3%
30.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 10.8 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Holstein Kiel vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Holstein Kiel and SpVgg Greuther Fürth expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Holstein Kiel and 1.04 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Holstein Kiel vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 53 outings, Holstein Kiel have picked up 0.92 PPG on a 12W 13D 28L record — D-D-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Holstein Kiel is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's form line: 14W 13D 26L from 53 games, 1.04 PPG, last five D-D-L-L-D. The sample for SpVgg Greuther Fürth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Holstein Kiel on 0.92 PPG, SpVgg Greuther Fürth on 1.04. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Holstein Kiel have posted 1.08 PPG from 26 outings (8W 4D 14L).
On the road, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 6W 4D 16L from 26 away games — 0.85 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Holstein Kiel are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.96 conceded per game recently; SpVgg Greuther Fürth are on 1.34 scored and 1.98 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Holstein Kiel have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 53 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Holstein Kiel
Blended
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Holstein Kiel and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in coming into this match?
Holstein Kiel have gone 12W 13D 28L in their last 53 games (0.92 PPG), while SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 14W 13D 26L in their last 53 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Holstein Kiel at home or SpVgg Greuther Fürth away?
Holstein Kiel's home record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Holstein Kiel at home: 1.08 PPG; SpVgg Greuther Fürth away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Holstein Kiel's record when hosting SpVgg Greuther Fürth specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Holstein Kiel
1
Draws
2
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Holstein Kiel and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
From 6 meetings on record, Holstein Kiel have won 3, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Holstein Kiel and SpVgg Greuther Fürth last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Holstein Kiel 1-2 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Who has won more matches between Holstein Kiel and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Holstein Kiel have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Holstein Kiel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Holstein Kiel 54%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Holstein Kiel) and 62% (SpVgg Greuther Fürth). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Holstein Kiel have failed to score in 31% of games; SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Holstein Kiel home games / SpVgg Greuther Fürth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Holstein Kiel play SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Holstein Kiel's recent matches and 54% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Holstein Kiel vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Holstein Kiel's matches and 62% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's.
Do Holstein Kiel and SpVgg Greuther Fürth tend to score early?
Holstein Kiel have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as SpVgg Greuther Fürth defy the odds to beat Holstein Kiel 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SpVgg Greuther Fürth beat Holstein Kiel 1-2 at Holstein-Stadion, Regular Season - 20, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Holstein Kiel 1.84 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.04 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Holstein Kiel fell 0.8 short of their projected output. SpVgg Greuther Fürth outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Holstein Kiel attack 0.90 / defence 0.83 against SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.95 / defence 1.43, drawn from 19/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Holstein Kiel 55% | Draw 24% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 20%, with Holstein Kiel to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a SpVgg Greuther Fürth win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Holstein Kiel 64%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Holstein Kiel's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Holstein Kiel 0.92 PPG, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SpVgg Greuther Fürth win broke the near-deadlock. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.