Holstein Kiel 0-3 SSV Jahn Regensburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SSV Jahn Regensburg at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Holstein Kiel vs SSV Jahn Regensburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Holstein Kiel and SSV Jahn Regensburg meet at Holstein-Stadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 14 August 2021 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
Holstein Kiel's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games (0.75 PPG). Last five: W L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.75 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.75 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Holstein Kiel have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SSV Jahn Regensburg have collected 3.00 PPG across 2 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 0D 0L. Last five: W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 2 games (100%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. SSV Jahn Regensburg have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. SSV Jahn Regensburg are 2.25 PPG clear of Holstein Kiel in recent 2. Bundesliga fixtures (3.00 vs 0.75). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Both sides have a strong clean-sheet tendency (using overall form) — Holstein Kiel have seen both teams score in just 25% of their games, SSV Jahn Regensburg in only 0%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from both squads' form records.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Holstein Kiel 0.75 xG and SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Holstein Kiel attack 0.817 / defence 1.335 | SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.919 / defence 1.026. League average goals — home 0.899 / away 1.407. Data: 2 Holstein Kiel games / 2 SSV Jahn Regensburg games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Holstein Kiel 13% | Draw 30% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 57%. Fair-value odds: Holstein Kiel 7.69 | Draw 3.33 | SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.75. The model has a clear lean to SSV Jahn Regensburg (57%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SSV Jahn Regensburg at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 30% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Holstein Kiel vs SSV Jahn Regensburg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Holstein-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Aug 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Holstein Kiel 13% | Draw 30% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 47% | xG Holstein Kiel 0.75 / SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Holstein Kiel attack 0.817 / def 1.335 | SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.919 / def 1.026 | league avg home 0.899 / away 1.407 • Poisson stance: SSV Jahn Regensburg (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.75
Holstein Kiel xG
Expected Goals
1.73
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
47%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Holstein Kiel vs SSV Jahn Regensburg kick off?
Holstein Kiel vs SSV Jahn Regensburg kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 14 August 2021 at Holstein-Stadion.
What was the final score in Holstein Kiel vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Holstein Kiel 0 - 3 SSV Jahn Regensburg.
Where is Holstein Kiel vs SSV Jahn Regensburg being played?
The match is being played at Holstein-Stadion.
What competition is Holstein Kiel vs SSV Jahn Regensburg part of?
Holstein Kiel vs SSV Jahn Regensburg is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Holstein Kiel vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Our statistical model gives Holstein Kiel a 13% chance of winning, SSV Jahn Regensburg a 57% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making SSV Jahn Regensburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Holstein Kiel vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Holstein Kiel and SSV Jahn Regensburg will score (BTTS).
Will Holstein Kiel vs SSV Jahn Regensburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Holstein Kiel and SSV Jahn Regensburg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Holstein Kiel and SSV Jahn Regensburg in?
Holstein Kiel (all comps): 1W-0D-3L in 4 | 0.75 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.75 | L5 W-L-L-L. SSV Jahn Regensburg (all comps): 2W-0D-0L in 2 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.00 | L5 W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Holstein Kiel's attack at 0.82x the league average against SSV Jahn Regensburg's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 0.75 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SSV Jahn Regensburg's attack (0.92x) against Holstein Kiel's defence (1.33x) — and the away total comes out at 1.73.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (12.5%), 1-1 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SSV Jahn Regensburg Win
13%
7.86
30%
3.34
57%
1.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.5%
Away win
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.75
Holstein Kiel xG
Total xG
2.48
1.73
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
7.86
13%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
1.74
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
18%
5.62
47%
2.13
Win to Nil
2%
44.21
27%
3.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 14.4 | 12.5 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 10.9 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Holstein Kiel vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Holstein Kiel and SSV Jahn Regensburg expected to score?
The model projects 0.75 expected goals for Holstein Kiel and 1.73 for SSV Jahn Regensburg, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Holstein Kiel vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Holstein Kiel's recent record stands at 0W 0D 2L from 2 games, a 0.00 PPG return, with L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Holstein Kiel, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
SSV Jahn Regensburg, meanwhile, have gone 2W 0D 0L across 2 games — 3.00 PPG, with W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for SSV Jahn Regensburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours SSV Jahn Regensburg by 3.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Holstein Kiel heading into this one.
Attack vs Defence
Holstein Kiel are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game recently; SSV Jahn Regensburg are on 2.50 scored and 0.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Holstein Kiel have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; SSV Jahn Regensburg in 0%.
Defensively: SSV Jahn Regensburg in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Holstein Kiel
Early Season
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Holstein Kiel and SSV Jahn Regensburg in coming into this match?
Holstein Kiel have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 games (0.00 PPG), while SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 (3.00 PPG).
Have Holstein Kiel or SSV Jahn Regensburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Holstein Kiel have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, SSV Jahn Regensburg in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SSV Jahn Regensburg won 0-3 on 14 Aug 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Holstein Kiel have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against SSV Jahn Regensburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Holstein Kiel
1
Draws
2
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Holstein Kiel and SSV Jahn Regensburg?
From 4 meetings on record, Holstein Kiel have won 1, SSV Jahn Regensburg have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Holstein Kiel and SSV Jahn Regensburg last play each other?
They last met on 12 March 2023, when Holstein Kiel 1-2 SSV Jahn Regensburg.
Who has won more matches between Holstein Kiel and SSV Jahn Regensburg?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Holstein Kiel home games / SSV Jahn Regensburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Holstein Kiel play SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Holstein Kiel's recent matches and 0% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Holstein Kiel vs SSV Jahn Regensburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Holstein Kiel's matches and 50% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's.
Do Holstein Kiel and SSV Jahn Regensburg tend to score early?
Holstein Kiel have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, SSV Jahn Regensburg in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SSV Jahn Regensburg run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Holstein Kiel.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SSV Jahn Regensburg beat Holstein Kiel 0-3 at Holstein-Stadion, Regular Season - 3, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Holstein Kiel 0.75 xG and SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.73 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. SSV Jahn Regensburg outscored their 1.73 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Holstein Kiel attack 0.82 / defence 1.33 against SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.92 / defence 1.03, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Holstein Kiel 13% | Draw 30% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 57%, with SSV Jahn Regensburg to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Holstein Kiel 100%, SSV Jahn Regensburg 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, SSV Jahn Regensburg arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.