Holstein Kiel 1-0 FC Ingolstadt 04 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Holstein Kiel at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Holstein Kiel vs FC Ingolstadt 04 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees FC Ingolstadt 04 travel to Holstein-Stadion to take on Holstein Kiel. The game is scheduled for Sunday 20 March 2022, 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Holstein Kiel stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Holstein Kiel, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Holstein-Stadion, Holstein Kiel have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
FC Ingolstadt 04 — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC Ingolstadt 04, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Ingolstadt 04's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Holstein Kiel are in the better shape of the two on current 2. Bundesliga data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Holstein Kiel, 0 for FC Ingolstadt 04 and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Holstein Kiel in-play tendencies (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games).
FC Ingolstadt 04 in-play tendencies (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Holstein Kiel 62% versus FC Ingolstadt 04 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Holstein Kiel 69% | FC Ingolstadt 04 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Holstein Kiel 1.58 xG and FC Ingolstadt 04 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Holstein Kiel attack 1.023 / defence 1.269 | FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 0.813 / defence 1.379. League average goals — home 1.122 / away 1.466. FC Ingolstadt 04 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.379 — this is suppressing Holstein Kiel's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Holstein Kiel games / 26 FC Ingolstadt 04 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Holstein Kiel 37% | Draw 29% | FC Ingolstadt 04 34%. Fair-value odds: Holstein Kiel 2.70 | Draw 3.45 | FC Ingolstadt 04 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.58 / 1.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Holstein Kiel are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Holstein Kiel offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.10 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates are neutral: Holstein Kiel 50% | FC Ingolstadt 04 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Holstein Kiel vs FC Ingolstadt 04 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Holstein-Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Mar 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Holstein Kiel 37% | Draw 29% | FC Ingolstadt 04 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 65% | xG Holstein Kiel 1.58 / FC Ingolstadt 04 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Holstein Kiel attack 1.023 / def 1.269 | FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 0.813 / def 1.379 | league avg home 1.122 / away 1.466 • Poisson stance: Holstein Kiel (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Holstein Kiel xG
Expected Goals
1.51
FC Ingolstadt 04 xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Holstein Kiel vs FC Ingolstadt 04 kick off?
Holstein Kiel vs FC Ingolstadt 04 kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 20 March 2022 at Holstein-Stadion.
What was the final score in Holstein Kiel vs FC Ingolstadt 04?
Holstein Kiel 1 - 0 FC Ingolstadt 04.
Where is Holstein Kiel vs FC Ingolstadt 04 being played?
The match is being played at Holstein-Stadion.
What competition is Holstein Kiel vs FC Ingolstadt 04 part of?
Holstein Kiel vs FC Ingolstadt 04 is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Holstein Kiel vs FC Ingolstadt 04?
Our statistical model gives Holstein Kiel a 37% chance of winning, FC Ingolstadt 04 a 34% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Holstein Kiel the favourite.
Will both teams score in Holstein Kiel vs FC Ingolstadt 04?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Holstein Kiel and FC Ingolstadt 04 will score (BTTS).
Will Holstein Kiel vs FC Ingolstadt 04 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Holstein Kiel and FC Ingolstadt 04?
Record (1 meetings): Holstein Kiel 0W | Draws 1 | FC Ingolstadt 04 0W.
What form are Holstein Kiel and FC Ingolstadt 04 in?
Holstein Kiel (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. FC Ingolstadt 04 (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Holstein Kiel's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against FC Ingolstadt 04's defensive record (1.38x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.58. The same calculation in reverse, FC Ingolstadt 04's attack versus Holstein Kiel's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Holstein Kiel Win
37%
2.71
29%
3.42
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Holstein Kiel xG
Total xG
3.10
1.51
FC Ingolstadt 04 xG
2.71
37%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.83
Clean Sheet
22%
4.54
21%
4.87
Win to Nil
8%
12.31
7%
14.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 6.8 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 10.8 | 8.2 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.6 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Holstein Kiel vs FC Ingolstadt 04?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Holstein Kiel and FC Ingolstadt 04 expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Holstein Kiel and 1.51 for FC Ingolstadt 04, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Holstein Kiel vs FC Ingolstadt 04?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 26 outings, Holstein Kiel have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 8W 7D 11L record — W-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Holstein Kiel is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Ingolstadt 04's form line: 3W 6D 17L from 26 games, 0.58 PPG, last five D-D-L-L-L. The sample for FC Ingolstadt 04 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Holstein Kiel are the form team by 0.61 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Ingolstadt 04.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Holstein Kiel have posted 1.31 PPG from 13 outings (5W 2D 6L).
On the road, FC Ingolstadt 04 have gone 2W 2D 9L from 13 away games — 0.62 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Holstein Kiel come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Holstein Kiel are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; FC Ingolstadt 04 are on 0.85 scored and 1.96 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Holstein Kiel have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 26 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Holstein Kiel
Blended
FC Ingolstadt 04
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Holstein Kiel and FC Ingolstadt 04 in coming into this match?
Holstein Kiel have gone 8W 7D 11L in their last 26 games (1.19 PPG), while FC Ingolstadt 04 have gone 3W 6D 17L in their last 26 (0.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Holstein Kiel at home or FC Ingolstadt 04 away?
Holstein Kiel's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Holstein Kiel at home: 1.31 PPG; FC Ingolstadt 04 away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Holstein Kiel and FC Ingolstadt 04 runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Holstein Kiel
1
Draws
0
FC Ingolstadt 04
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Holstein Kiel and FC Ingolstadt 04?
From 2 meetings on record, Holstein Kiel have won 1, FC Ingolstadt 04 have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Holstein Kiel and FC Ingolstadt 04 last play each other?
They last met on 20 March 2022, when Holstein Kiel 1-0 FC Ingolstadt 04.
Who has won more matches between Holstein Kiel and FC Ingolstadt 04?
Holstein Kiel have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Holstein Kiel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches.
FC Ingolstadt 04 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Holstein Kiel 38%, FC Ingolstadt 04 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Holstein Kiel and 69% for FC Ingolstadt 04. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 15% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Holstein Kiel have failed to score in 38% of games; FC Ingolstadt 04 in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Holstein Kiel home games / FC Ingolstadt 04 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Holstein Kiel play FC Ingolstadt 04?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Holstein Kiel's recent matches and 46% of FC Ingolstadt 04's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Holstein Kiel vs FC Ingolstadt 04 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Holstein Kiel's matches and 69% of FC Ingolstadt 04's.
Do Holstein Kiel and FC Ingolstadt 04 tend to score early?
Holstein Kiel have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, FC Ingolstadt 04 in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Holstein Kiel edge out FC Ingolstadt 04 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Holstein Kiel beat FC Ingolstadt 04 1-0 at Holstein-Stadion, Regular Season - 27, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Holstein Kiel 1.58 xG and FC Ingolstadt 04 1.51 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. FC Ingolstadt 04 landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Holstein Kiel attack 1.02 / defence 1.27 against FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 0.81 / defence 1.38, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Holstein Kiel 37% | Draw 29% | FC Ingolstadt 04 34%, with Holstein Kiel to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Holstein Kiel 69%, FC Ingolstadt 04 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Holstein Kiel's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Ingolstadt 04's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Holstein Kiel arrived the stronger side — 1.19 PPG against 0.58. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Holstein Kiel (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.69 average — tighter than their form line. FC Ingolstadt 04 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.23 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.