Holstein Kiel 3-0 Eintracht Braunschweig – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Holstein Kiel at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Holstein Kiel vs Eintracht Braunschweig encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 4 as Holstein Kiel welcome Eintracht Braunschweig to Holstein-Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 13 August 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Holstein Kiel stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Holstein Kiel have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Holstein Kiel's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Holstein-Stadion this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Holstein-Stadion.
Eintracht Braunschweig — All Games: 0W 0D 3L from 3 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Eintracht Braunschweig have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Holstein Kiel are in the better shape of the two on current 2. Bundesliga data — 1.60 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Trading Patterns
Holstein Kiel in-play and half-time data (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%.
Eintracht Braunschweig in-play and half-time data (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 100% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Holstein Kiel 100% versus Eintracht Braunschweig 0%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Holstein Kiel 100% | Eintracht Braunschweig 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Holstein Kiel 2.00 xG and Eintracht Braunschweig 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Holstein Kiel attack 1.077 / defence 1.016 | Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.713 / defence 1.293. League average goals — home 1.432 / away 1.338. Eintracht Braunschweig bring a strong defensive rating of 1.293 — this is suppressing Holstein Kiel's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Holstein Kiel games / 3 Eintracht Braunschweig games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Holstein Kiel 61% | Draw 21% | Eintracht Braunschweig 18%. Fair-value odds: Holstein Kiel 1.64 | Draw 4.76 | Eintracht Braunschweig 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Holstein Kiel (61%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Holstein Kiel at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.96 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Holstein Kiel 40% | Eintracht Braunschweig 0% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Holstein Kiel vs Eintracht Braunschweig | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Holstein-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Aug 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Holstein Kiel 61% | Draw 21% | Eintracht Braunschweig 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 54% | xG Holstein Kiel 2.00 / Eintracht Braunschweig 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Holstein Kiel attack 1.077 / def 1.016 | Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.713 / def 1.293 | league avg home 1.432 / away 1.338 • Poisson stance: Holstein Kiel (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
Holstein Kiel xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
54%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Holstein Kiel vs Eintracht Braunschweig kick off?
Holstein Kiel vs Eintracht Braunschweig kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 13 August 2022 at Holstein-Stadion.
What was the final score in Holstein Kiel vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Holstein Kiel 3 - 0 Eintracht Braunschweig.
Where is Holstein Kiel vs Eintracht Braunschweig being played?
The match is being played at Holstein-Stadion.
What competition is Holstein Kiel vs Eintracht Braunschweig part of?
Holstein Kiel vs Eintracht Braunschweig is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Holstein Kiel vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our statistical model gives Holstein Kiel a 61% chance of winning, Eintracht Braunschweig a 18% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Holstein Kiel the favourite.
Will both teams score in Holstein Kiel vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Holstein Kiel and Eintracht Braunschweig will score (BTTS).
Will Holstein Kiel vs Eintracht Braunschweig have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Holstein Kiel and Eintracht Braunschweig?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Holstein Kiel and Eintracht Braunschweig in?
Holstein Kiel (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-D-W. Eintracht Braunschweig (all comps): 0W-0D-3L in 3 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Holstein Kiel's attack rating (1.08) and Eintracht Braunschweig's defence rating (1.29), the model arrives at 2.00 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Eintracht Braunschweig's attack versus Holstein Kiel's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.3%), 2-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Holstein Kiel Win
61%
1.63
21%
4.73
18%
5.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
Holstein Kiel xG
Total xG
2.96
0.97
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
1.63
61%
Home win
4.73
21%
Draw
5.66
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
14%
7.35
Win to Nil
23%
4.31
2%
41.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.3 | 10.0 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 10.0 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Holstein Kiel vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Holstein Kiel and Eintracht Braunschweig expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Holstein Kiel and 0.97 for Eintracht Braunschweig, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Holstein Kiel vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 3 outings, Holstein Kiel have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 1W 2D 0L record — D-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Holstein Kiel, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Eintracht Braunschweig's form line: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games, 0.00 PPG, last five L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Eintracht Braunschweig, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Holstein Kiel are the form team by 1.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Eintracht Braunschweig.
The Goals Picture
Holstein Kiel are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Eintracht Braunschweig are on 0.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Holstein Kiel have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Eintracht Braunschweig in 0%.
Last 3 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Holstein Kiel
Early Season
Eintracht Braunschweig
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Holstein Kiel and Eintracht Braunschweig in coming into this match?
Holstein Kiel have gone 1W 2D 0L in their last 3 games (1.67 PPG), while Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 0W 0D 3L in their last 3 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Holstein Kiel and Eintracht Braunschweig runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Aug 2022, when Holstein Kiel won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Holstein Kiel's record when hosting Eintracht Braunschweig specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Holstein Kiel
1
Draws
1
Eintracht Braunschweig
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Holstein Kiel and Eintracht Braunschweig?
From 6 meetings on record, Holstein Kiel have won 4, Eintracht Braunschweig have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Holstein Kiel and Eintracht Braunschweig last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Holstein Kiel 2-0 Eintracht Braunschweig.
Who has won more matches between Holstein Kiel and Eintracht Braunschweig?
Holstein Kiel have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Holstein Kiel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Eintracht Braunschweig see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Holstein Kiel 100%, Eintracht Braunschweig 0% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Holstein Kiel and 33% for Eintracht Braunschweig. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Eintracht Braunschweig in 100%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Holstein Kiel home games / Eintracht Braunschweig away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Holstein Kiel play Eintracht Braunschweig?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of Holstein Kiel's recent matches and 0% of Eintracht Braunschweig's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Holstein Kiel vs Eintracht Braunschweig usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Holstein Kiel's matches and 33% of Eintracht Braunschweig's.
Do Holstein Kiel and Eintracht Braunschweig tend to score early?
Holstein Kiel have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Eintracht Braunschweig in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Holstein Kiel run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Eintracht Braunschweig.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Holstein Kiel beat Eintracht Braunschweig 3-0 at Holstein-Stadion, Regular Season - 4, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Holstein Kiel 2.00 xG and Eintracht Braunschweig 0.97 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Holstein Kiel beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Eintracht Braunschweig landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Holstein Kiel attack 1.08 / defence 1.02 against Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.71 / defence 1.29, drawn from 37/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Holstein Kiel 61% | Draw 21% | Eintracht Braunschweig 18%, with Holstein Kiel to win its most likely call at 61%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Holstein Kiel 100%, Eintracht Braunschweig 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Holstein Kiel's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did not.
Eintracht Braunschweig's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 100% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Holstein Kiel arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Holstein Kiel scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. Eintracht Braunschweig shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.