Hertha BSC 1-2 Preußen Münster – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hertha BSC at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hertha BSC vs Preußen Münster fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Olympiastadion Berlin plays host to Hertha BSC versus Preußen Münster in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Friday 13 December 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Hertha BSC (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Hertha BSC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hertha BSC at Olympiastadion Berlin this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Preußen Münster's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Preußen Münster, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Preußen Münster's away record: 1W 3D 3L from 7 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (0.86 PPG). Away from home they average 1.29 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Hertha BSC, 1.00 for Preußen Münster — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Hertha BSC have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Preußen Münster in 71%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Hertha BSC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 27% of cases; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
Preußen Münster goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hertha BSC 73% and Preußen Münster 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hertha BSC 67% | Preußen Münster 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hertha BSC 1.46 xG and Preußen Münster 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hertha BSC attack 0.951 / defence 1.156 | Preußen Münster attack 0.790 / defence 1.026. League average goals — home 1.498 / away 1.530. Data: 49 Hertha BSC games / 15 Preußen Münster games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hertha BSC 37% | Draw 29% | Preußen Münster 34%. Fair-value odds: Hertha BSC 2.70 | Draw 3.45 | Preußen Münster 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.46 / 1.40) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hertha BSC at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hertha BSC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.86 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Hertha BSC 60% | Preußen Münster 71% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hertha BSC vs Preußen Münster | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Olympiastadion Berlin • Kick-off: Friday 13 Dec 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hertha BSC 37% | Draw 29% | Preußen Münster 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 60% | xG Hertha BSC 1.46 / Preußen Münster 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Hertha BSC attack 0.951 / def 1.156 | Preußen Münster attack 0.790 / def 1.026 | league avg home 1.498 / away 1.530 • Poisson stance: Hertha BSC (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Hertha BSC xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Preußen Münster xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hertha BSC vs Preußen Münster kick off?
Hertha BSC vs Preußen Münster kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 13 December 2024 at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What was the final score in Hertha BSC vs Preußen Münster?
Hertha BSC 1 - 2 Preußen Münster.
Where is Hertha BSC vs Preußen Münster being played?
The match is being played at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What competition is Hertha BSC vs Preußen Münster part of?
Hertha BSC vs Preußen Münster is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hertha BSC vs Preußen Münster?
Our statistical model gives Hertha BSC a 37% chance of winning, Preußen Münster a 34% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Hertha BSC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hertha BSC vs Preußen Münster?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Hertha BSC and Preußen Münster will score (BTTS).
Will Hertha BSC vs Preußen Münster have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and Preußen Münster?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hertha BSC and Preußen Münster in?
Hertha BSC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Preußen Münster (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Hertha BSC's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Preußen Münster's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.46. Flip it around — Preußen Münster's attack (0.79x) against Hertha BSC's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from 49/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hertha BSC Win
37%
2.71
29%
3.43
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Hertha BSC xG
Total xG
2.86
1.40
Preußen Münster xG
2.71
37%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
25%
4.04
23%
4.31
Win to Nil
9%
10.95
8%
12.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 8.0 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.7 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.6 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hertha BSC vs Preußen Münster?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Hertha BSC and Preußen Münster expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Hertha BSC and 1.40 for Preußen Münster, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Hertha BSC vs Preußen Münster?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Hertha BSC's recent record stands at 6W 3D 6L from 15 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Hertha BSC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Preußen Münster, meanwhile, have gone 2W 6D 7L across 15 games — 0.80 PPG, with W-D-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Preußen Münster is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Hertha BSC by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Preußen Münster heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Hertha BSC have managed 2W 1D 4L from 7 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Preußen Münster's away record stands at 1W 3D 3L across 7 trips, a 0.86 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Hertha BSC are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Preußen Münster are on 1.07 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hertha BSC have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games; Preußen Münster in 60%.
Last 15 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hertha BSC
Blended
Preußen Münster
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hertha BSC and Preußen Münster in coming into this match?
Hertha BSC have gone 6W 3D 6L in their last 15 games (1.40 PPG), while Preußen Münster have gone 2W 6D 7L in their last 15 (0.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hertha BSC at home or Preußen Münster away?
Hertha BSC's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hertha BSC at home: 1.00 PPG; Preußen Münster away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Hertha BSC go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hertha BSC have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Preußen Münster — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Hertha BSC
0
Draws
2
Preußen Münster
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and Preußen Münster?
From 4 meetings on record, Hertha BSC have won 2, Preußen Münster have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hertha BSC and Preußen Münster last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Preußen Münster 1-2 Hertha BSC.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Preußen Münster are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hertha BSC 57%, Preußen Münster 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Hertha BSC) and 57% (Preußen Münster). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hertha BSC have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hertha BSC home games / Preußen Münster away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hertha BSC play Preußen Münster?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Hertha BSC's games and 71% of Preußen Münster's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hertha BSC vs Preußen Münster usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Hertha BSC's matches and 57% of Preußen Münster's.
Do Hertha BSC and Preußen Münster tend to score early?
Hertha BSC have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Preußen Münster in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Preußen Münster defy the odds to beat Hertha BSC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Preußen Münster beat Hertha BSC 1-2 at Olympiastadion Berlin, Regular Season - 16, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hertha BSC 1.46 xG and Preußen Münster 1.40 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hertha BSC attack 0.95 / defence 1.16 against Preußen Münster attack 0.79 / defence 1.03, drawn from 49/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hertha BSC 37% | Draw 29% | Preußen Münster 34%, with Hertha BSC to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Preußen Münster win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hertha BSC 67%, Preußen Münster 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hertha BSC's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Preußen Münster's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Hertha BSC arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.80. Form was overturned, with Preußen Münster winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.