Hansa Rostock 2-5 Fortuna Düsseldorf – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fortuna Düsseldorf at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hansa Rostock vs Fortuna Düsseldorf encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 25 as Hansa Rostock welcome Fortuna Düsseldorf to Ostseestadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 19 March 2023 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hansa Rostock stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Hansa Rostock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Ostseestadion, Hansa Rostock have gone 2W 1D 7L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Fortuna Düsseldorf — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Düsseldorf, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Fortuna Düsseldorf are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Hansa Rostock, 2 for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 10 Sep 2022, ended 1–3 with Fortuna Düsseldorf winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Hansa Rostock trading profile (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Fortuna Düsseldorf trading profile (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hansa Rostock 45% versus Fortuna Düsseldorf 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hansa Rostock 43% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hansa Rostock 0.88 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hansa Rostock attack 0.577 / defence 1.099 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.898 / defence 1.042. League average goals — home 1.470 / away 1.209. Hansa Rostock's attack strength of 0.577 is below the league average — the 0.88 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 58 Hansa Rostock games / 58 Fortuna Düsseldorf games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hansa Rostock 27% | Draw 30% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 43%. Fair-value odds: Hansa Rostock 3.70 | Draw 3.33 | Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fortuna Düsseldorf at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fortuna Düsseldorf offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.08 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Hansa Rostock 20% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hansa Rostock vs Fortuna Düsseldorf | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Ostseestadion • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Mar 2023, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hansa Rostock 27% | Draw 30% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG Hansa Rostock 0.88 / Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Hansa Rostock attack 0.577 / def 1.099 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.898 / def 1.042 | league avg home 1.470 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: Fortuna Düsseldorf (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Hansa Rostock xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hansa Rostock vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kick off?
Hansa Rostock vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 19 March 2023 at Ostseestadion.
What was the final score in Hansa Rostock vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Hansa Rostock 2 - 5 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Where is Hansa Rostock vs Fortuna Düsseldorf being played?
The match is being played at Ostseestadion.
What competition is Hansa Rostock vs Fortuna Düsseldorf part of?
Hansa Rostock vs Fortuna Düsseldorf is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hansa Rostock vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our statistical model gives Hansa Rostock a 27% chance of winning, Fortuna Düsseldorf a 43% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Fortuna Düsseldorf the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hansa Rostock vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Hansa Rostock and Fortuna Düsseldorf will score (BTTS).
Will Hansa Rostock vs Fortuna Düsseldorf have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hansa Rostock and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Record (3 meetings): Hansa Rostock 1W | Draws 0 | Fortuna Düsseldorf 2W.
What form are Hansa Rostock and Fortuna Düsseldorf in?
Hansa Rostock (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. Fortuna Düsseldorf (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Hansa Rostock's attack at 0.58x the league average against Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 0.88 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fortuna Düsseldorf's attack versus Hansa Rostock's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 0-1 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortuna Düsseldorf Win
27%
3.68
30%
3.37
43%
2.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Hansa Rostock xG
Total xG
2.08
1.19
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
3.68
27%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
2.32
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.45
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
30%
3.30
41%
2.42
Win to Nil
8%
12.13
18%
5.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 14.9 | 8.9 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.2 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 5.8 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hansa Rostock vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Hansa Rostock and Fortuna Düsseldorf expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Hansa Rostock and 1.19 for Fortuna Düsseldorf, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Hansa Rostock vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hansa Rostock's recent record stands at 17W 15D 26L from 58 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Hansa Rostock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fortuna Düsseldorf, meanwhile, have gone 23W 14D 21L across 58 games — 1.43 PPG, with W-L-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Fortuna Düsseldorf is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hansa Rostock on 1.14 PPG, Fortuna Düsseldorf on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Hansa Rostock have managed 7W 6D 16L from 29 games — 0.93 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's away record stands at 9W 6D 14L across 29 trips, a 1.14 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Hansa Rostock are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Fortuna Düsseldorf are on 1.43 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 58 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hansa Rostock
Blended
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hansa Rostock and Fortuna Düsseldorf in coming into this match?
Hansa Rostock have gone 17W 15D 26L in their last 58 games (1.14 PPG), while Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 23W 14D 21L in their last 58 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hansa Rostock at home or Fortuna Düsseldorf away?
Fortuna Düsseldorf's away record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hansa Rostock at home: 0.93 PPG; Fortuna Düsseldorf away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hansa Rostock and Fortuna Düsseldorf runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Fortuna Düsseldorf have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Apr 2022, when Fortuna Düsseldorf won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hansa Rostock's record when hosting Fortuna Düsseldorf specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Hansa Rostock
0
Draws
5
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hansa Rostock and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
From 6 meetings on record, Hansa Rostock have won 1, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hansa Rostock and Fortuna Düsseldorf last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2024, when Fortuna Düsseldorf 2-0 Hansa Rostock.
Who has won more matches between Hansa Rostock and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hansa Rostock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Fortuna Düsseldorf see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hansa Rostock 48%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Hansa Rostock) and 45% (Fortuna Düsseldorf).
On the defensive side: Hansa Rostock have failed to score in 45% of games; Fortuna Düsseldorf in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hansa Rostock home games / Fortuna Düsseldorf away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hansa Rostock play Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Hansa Rostock's recent matches and 48% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hansa Rostock vs Fortuna Düsseldorf usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Hansa Rostock's recent games and 45% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hansa Rostock and Fortuna Düsseldorf tend to score early?
Hansa Rostock have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Fortuna Düsseldorf in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Fortuna Düsseldorf run riot with a 2-5 hammering of Hansa Rostock.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortuna Düsseldorf beat Hansa Rostock 2-5 at Ostseestadion, Regular Season - 25, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hansa Rostock 0.88 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.19 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 2-5 for 7 actual goals. Hansa Rostock beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Fortuna Düsseldorf outscored their 1.19 projection by 3.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hansa Rostock attack 0.58 / defence 1.10 against Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.90 / defence 1.04, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hansa Rostock 27% | Draw 30% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 43%, with Fortuna Düsseldorf to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hansa Rostock 43%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hansa Rostock's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hansa Rostock 1.14 PPG, Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fortuna Düsseldorf win broke the near-deadlock. Hansa Rostock (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fortuna Düsseldorf (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.