Hansa Rostock 2-0 FC St. Pauli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hansa Rostock at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hansa Rostock vs FC St. Pauli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees FC St. Pauli travel to Ostseestadion to take on Hansa Rostock. The game is scheduled for Sunday 21 August 2022, 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hansa Rostock stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Hansa Rostock have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hansa Rostock at Ostseestadion this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
FC St. Pauli — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. FC St. Pauli have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC St. Pauli's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Hansa Rostock at 1.00 PPG versus FC St. Pauli's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Hansa Rostock, 1 for FC St. Pauli and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Apr 2022, ended 1–0 with Hansa Rostock winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Hansa Rostock in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
FC St. Pauli in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hansa Rostock 53% versus FC St. Pauli 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hansa Rostock 53% | FC St. Pauli 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hansa Rostock 1.51 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hansa Rostock attack 0.877 / defence 0.940 | FC St. Pauli attack 1.034 / defence 1.145. League average goals — home 1.509 / away 1.423. Data: 38 Hansa Rostock games / 38 FC St. Pauli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hansa Rostock 41% | Draw 25% | FC St. Pauli 35%. Fair-value odds: Hansa Rostock 2.44 | Draw 4.00 | FC St. Pauli 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hansa Rostock at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hansa Rostock offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.90 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hansa Rostock 50% | FC St. Pauli 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hansa Rostock vs FC St. Pauli | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Ostseestadion • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Aug 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hansa Rostock 41% | Draw 25% | FC St. Pauli 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Hansa Rostock 1.51 / FC St. Pauli 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Hansa Rostock attack 0.877 / def 0.940 | FC St. Pauli attack 1.034 / def 1.145 | league avg home 1.509 / away 1.423 • Poisson stance: Hansa Rostock (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Hansa Rostock xG
Expected Goals
1.38
FC St. Pauli xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hansa Rostock vs FC St. Pauli kick off?
Hansa Rostock vs FC St. Pauli kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 21 August 2022 at Ostseestadion.
What was the final score in Hansa Rostock vs FC St. Pauli?
Hansa Rostock 2 - 0 FC St. Pauli.
Where is Hansa Rostock vs FC St. Pauli being played?
The match is being played at Ostseestadion.
What competition is Hansa Rostock vs FC St. Pauli part of?
Hansa Rostock vs FC St. Pauli is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hansa Rostock vs FC St. Pauli?
Our statistical model gives Hansa Rostock a 41% chance of winning, FC St. Pauli a 35% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Hansa Rostock the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hansa Rostock vs FC St. Pauli?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Hansa Rostock and FC St. Pauli will score (BTTS).
Will Hansa Rostock vs FC St. Pauli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hansa Rostock and FC St. Pauli?
Record (2 meetings): Hansa Rostock 1W | Draws 0 | FC St. Pauli 1W.
What form are Hansa Rostock and FC St. Pauli in?
Hansa Rostock (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. FC St. Pauli (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Hansa Rostock's attack rating (0.88) and FC St. Pauli's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC St. Pauli's attack versus Hansa Rostock's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hansa Rostock Win
41%
2.46
25%
4.04
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Hansa Rostock xG
Total xG
2.90
1.38
FC St. Pauli xG
2.46
41%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
25%
3.98
22%
4.55
Win to Nil
10%
9.81
8%
13.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.6 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.6 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.8 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.4 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hansa Rostock vs FC St. Pauli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Hansa Rostock and FC St. Pauli expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Hansa Rostock and 1.38 for FC St. Pauli, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Hansa Rostock vs FC St. Pauli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hansa Rostock's recent record stands at 12W 11D 15L from 38 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Hansa Rostock, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC St. Pauli, meanwhile, have gone 18W 10D 10L across 38 games — 1.68 PPG, with W-W-D-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for FC St. Pauli, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours FC St. Pauli by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hansa Rostock heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Hansa Rostock have managed 5W 5D 9L from 19 games — 1.05 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC St. Pauli's away record stands at 5W 6D 8L across 19 trips, a 1.11 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.68 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC St. Pauli's season.
The Goals Picture
Hansa Rostock are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; FC St. Pauli are on 1.84 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC St. Pauli in 66%.
Last 38 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hansa Rostock
Early Season
FC St. Pauli
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hansa Rostock and FC St. Pauli in coming into this match?
Hansa Rostock have gone 12W 11D 15L in their last 38 games (1.24 PPG), while FC St. Pauli have gone 18W 10D 10L in their last 38 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hansa Rostock at home or FC St. Pauli away?
FC St. Pauli's away record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hansa Rostock at home: 1.05 PPG; FC St. Pauli away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hansa Rostock and FC St. Pauli runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
FC St. Pauli have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Oct 2021, when FC St. Pauli won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hansa Rostock's record when hosting FC St. Pauli specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Hansa Rostock
0
Draws
4
FC St. Pauli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hansa Rostock and FC St. Pauli?
From 6 meetings on record, Hansa Rostock have won 2, FC St. Pauli have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hansa Rostock and FC St. Pauli last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2024, when FC St. Pauli 1-0 Hansa Rostock.
Who has won more matches between Hansa Rostock and FC St. Pauli?
FC St. Pauli have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hansa Rostock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Hansa Rostock at 63%, FC St. Pauli at 74%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Hansa Rostock) and 63% (FC St. Pauli). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hansa Rostock have failed to score in 32% of games; FC St. Pauli in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hansa Rostock home games / FC St. Pauli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hansa Rostock play FC St. Pauli?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Hansa Rostock's games and 74% of FC St. Pauli's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hansa Rostock vs FC St. Pauli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Hansa Rostock's matches and 63% of FC St. Pauli's.
Do Hansa Rostock and FC St. Pauli tend to score early?
Hansa Rostock have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, FC St. Pauli in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hansa Rostock cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over FC St. Pauli.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hansa Rostock beat FC St. Pauli 2-0 at Ostseestadion, Regular Season - 5, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hansa Rostock 1.51 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.38 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. FC St. Pauli landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hansa Rostock attack 0.88 / defence 0.94 against FC St. Pauli attack 1.03 / defence 1.15, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hansa Rostock 41% | Draw 25% | FC St. Pauli 35%, with Hansa Rostock to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hansa Rostock 53%, FC St. Pauli 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hansa Rostock's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, FC St. Pauli arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.24. Form was overturned, with Hansa Rostock winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Hansa Rostock (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.