Hansa Rostock 0-0 1. FC Heidenheim – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates 1. FC Heidenheim at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hansa Rostock vs 1. FC Heidenheim encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hansa Rostock host 1. FC Heidenheim at Ostseestadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 22 January 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Hansa Rostock have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hansa Rostock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hansa Rostock's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 5L across 9 games at Ostseestadion this term (0.89 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
1. FC Heidenheim — All Games: 6W 0D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Heidenheim, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Heidenheim away from home this season: 4W 0D 5L from 9 away games — 1.33 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.11 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour 1. FC Heidenheim — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Hansa Rostock have won 0, 1. FC Heidenheim 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Aug 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Hansa Rostock in-play tendencies (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
1. FC Heidenheim in-play tendencies (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hansa Rostock 58% versus 1. FC Heidenheim 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hansa Rostock 58% | 1. FC Heidenheim 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hansa Rostock 1.20 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hansa Rostock attack 0.716 / defence 1.245 | 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.790 / defence 1.393. League average goals — home 1.205 / away 1.344. Hansa Rostock's attack strength of 0.716 is below the league average — the 1.20 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. 1. FC Heidenheim bring a strong defensive rating of 1.393 — this is suppressing Hansa Rostock's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 Hansa Rostock games / 19 1. FC Heidenheim games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hansa Rostock 31% | Draw 32% | 1. FC Heidenheim 37%. Fair-value odds: Hansa Rostock 3.23 | Draw 3.12 | 1. FC Heidenheim 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is 1. FC Heidenheim at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on 1. FC Heidenheim offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.53 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Hansa Rostock 78% | 1. FC Heidenheim 44% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hansa Rostock vs 1. FC Heidenheim | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Ostseestadion • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Jan 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hansa Rostock 31% | Draw 32% | 1. FC Heidenheim 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 54% | xG Hansa Rostock 1.20 / 1. FC Heidenheim 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Hansa Rostock attack 0.716 / def 1.245 | 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.790 / def 1.393 | league avg home 1.205 / away 1.344 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Heidenheim (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Hansa Rostock xG
Expected Goals
1.32
1. FC Heidenheim xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hansa Rostock vs 1. FC Heidenheim kick off?
Hansa Rostock vs 1. FC Heidenheim kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 22 January 2022 at Ostseestadion.
What was the final score in Hansa Rostock vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Hansa Rostock 0 - 0 1. FC Heidenheim.
Where is Hansa Rostock vs 1. FC Heidenheim being played?
The match is being played at Ostseestadion.
What competition is Hansa Rostock vs 1. FC Heidenheim part of?
Hansa Rostock vs 1. FC Heidenheim is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hansa Rostock vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our statistical model gives Hansa Rostock a 31% chance of winning, 1. FC Heidenheim a 37% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Heidenheim the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hansa Rostock vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Hansa Rostock and 1. FC Heidenheim will score (BTTS).
Will Hansa Rostock vs 1. FC Heidenheim have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hansa Rostock and 1. FC Heidenheim?
Record (1 meetings): Hansa Rostock 0W | Draws 1 | 1. FC Heidenheim 0W.
What form are Hansa Rostock and 1. FC Heidenheim in?
Hansa Rostock (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-L-D-L. 1. FC Heidenheim (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Hansa Rostock's attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against 1. FC Heidenheim's defensive record (1.39x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. The same calculation in reverse, 1. FC Heidenheim's attack versus Hansa Rostock's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Heidenheim Win
31%
3.18
32%
3.17
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Hansa Rostock xG
Total xG
2.53
1.32
1. FC Heidenheim xG
3.18
31%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
27%
3.75
30%
3.33
Win to Nil
8%
11.94
11%
8.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 10.6 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.7 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.7 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hansa Rostock vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Hansa Rostock and 1. FC Heidenheim expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Hansa Rostock and 1.32 for 1. FC Heidenheim, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Hansa Rostock vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 19 outings, Hansa Rostock have picked up 1.05 PPG on a 5W 5D 9L record — D-D-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Hansa Rostock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
1. FC Heidenheim's form line: 10W 3D 6L from 19 games, 1.74 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W. The sample for 1. FC Heidenheim is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, 1. FC Heidenheim are the form team by 0.69 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Hansa Rostock.
Venue Form
On home soil, Hansa Rostock have posted 0.89 PPG from 9 outings (2W 2D 5L).
On the road, 1. FC Heidenheim have gone 4W 0D 5L from 9 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.74 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of 1. FC Heidenheim's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Heidenheim come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hansa Rostock are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Heidenheim are on 1.32 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 19 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hansa Rostock
Blended
1. FC Heidenheim
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hansa Rostock and 1. FC Heidenheim in coming into this match?
Hansa Rostock have gone 5W 5D 9L in their last 19 games (1.05 PPG), while 1. FC Heidenheim have gone 10W 3D 6L in their last 19 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hansa Rostock at home or 1. FC Heidenheim away?
1. FC Heidenheim's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hansa Rostock at home: 0.89 PPG; 1. FC Heidenheim away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
1. FC Heidenheim go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Hansa Rostock's record when hosting 1. FC Heidenheim specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Hansa Rostock
2
Draws
2
1. FC Heidenheim
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hansa Rostock and 1. FC Heidenheim?
From 4 meetings on record, Hansa Rostock have won 0, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hansa Rostock and 1. FC Heidenheim last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2023, when 1. FC Heidenheim 2-0 Hansa Rostock.
Who has won more matches between Hansa Rostock and 1. FC Heidenheim?
1. FC Heidenheim have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hansa Rostock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
1. FC Heidenheim see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hansa Rostock 78%, 1. FC Heidenheim 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Hansa Rostock and 67% for 1. FC Heidenheim. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Heidenheim in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hansa Rostock home games / 1. FC Heidenheim away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hansa Rostock play 1. FC Heidenheim?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Hansa Rostock's games and 44% of 1. FC Heidenheim's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hansa Rostock vs 1. FC Heidenheim usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Hansa Rostock's matches and 67% of 1. FC Heidenheim's.
Do Hansa Rostock and 1. FC Heidenheim tend to score early?
Hansa Rostock have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, 1. FC Heidenheim in 44% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Hansa Rostock's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Ostseestadion, Regular Season - 20, as Hansa Rostock and 1. FC Heidenheim drew 0-0 in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hansa Rostock 1.20 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 1.32 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Hansa Rostock fell 1.2 short of their projected output. 1. FC Heidenheim landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hansa Rostock attack 0.72 / defence 1.25 against 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.79 / defence 1.39, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hansa Rostock 31% | Draw 32% | 1. FC Heidenheim 37%, with 1. FC Heidenheim to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hansa Rostock 58%, 1. FC Heidenheim 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hansa Rostock's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, 1. FC Heidenheim arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.05. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Hansa Rostock (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.78 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.