Hansa Rostock 1-2 Erzgebirge AUE – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hansa Rostock at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hansa Rostock vs Erzgebirge AUE fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hansa Rostock host Erzgebirge AUE at Ostseestadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 20 November 2021 at 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Hansa Rostock have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W D L W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Hansa Rostock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hansa Rostock's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 3L across 6 games at Ostseestadion this term (1.17 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Erzgebirge AUE stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Erzgebirge AUE, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Erzgebirge AUE away from home this season: 0W 3D 3L from 6 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.83 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Hansa Rostock carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.30 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Hansa Rostock register both teams scoring in 83% of relevant matches, Erzgebirge AUE in 67% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Hansa Rostock in-play tendencies (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Erzgebirge AUE in-play tendencies (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hansa Rostock 54% versus Erzgebirge AUE 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hansa Rostock 62% | Erzgebirge AUE 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hansa Rostock 1.36 xG and Erzgebirge AUE 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hansa Rostock attack 0.907 / defence 1.257 | Erzgebirge AUE attack 0.723 / defence 1.320. League average goals — home 1.137 / away 1.362. Erzgebirge AUE bring a strong defensive rating of 1.320 — this is suppressing Hansa Rostock's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Hansa Rostock games / 13 Erzgebirge AUE games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hansa Rostock 36% | Draw 34% | Erzgebirge AUE 30%. Fair-value odds: Hansa Rostock 2.78 | Draw 2.94 | Erzgebirge AUE 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hansa Rostock are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hansa Rostock offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Hansa Rostock 83% | Erzgebirge AUE 67% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hansa Rostock vs Erzgebirge AUE | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Ostseestadion • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Nov 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hansa Rostock 36% | Draw 34% | Erzgebirge AUE 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 57% | xG Hansa Rostock 1.36 / Erzgebirge AUE 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Hansa Rostock attack 0.907 / def 1.257 | Erzgebirge AUE attack 0.723 / def 1.320 | league avg home 1.137 / away 1.362 • Poisson stance: Hansa Rostock (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Hansa Rostock xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Erzgebirge AUE xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hansa Rostock vs Erzgebirge AUE kick off?
Hansa Rostock vs Erzgebirge AUE kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 20 November 2021 at Ostseestadion.
What was the final score in Hansa Rostock vs Erzgebirge AUE?
Hansa Rostock 1 - 2 Erzgebirge AUE.
Where is Hansa Rostock vs Erzgebirge AUE being played?
The match is being played at Ostseestadion.
What competition is Hansa Rostock vs Erzgebirge AUE part of?
Hansa Rostock vs Erzgebirge AUE is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hansa Rostock vs Erzgebirge AUE?
Our statistical model gives Hansa Rostock a 36% chance of winning, Erzgebirge AUE a 30% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Hansa Rostock the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hansa Rostock vs Erzgebirge AUE?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Hansa Rostock and Erzgebirge AUE will score (BTTS).
Will Hansa Rostock vs Erzgebirge AUE have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hansa Rostock and Erzgebirge AUE?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hansa Rostock and Erzgebirge AUE in?
Hansa Rostock (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Erzgebirge AUE (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Hansa Rostock's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Erzgebirge AUE's defensive record (1.32x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. The same calculation in reverse, Erzgebirge AUE's attack versus Hansa Rostock's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 2-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hansa Rostock Win
36%
2.78
34%
2.95
30%
3.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Hansa Rostock xG
Total xG
2.60
1.24
Erzgebirge AUE xG
2.78
36%
Home win
2.95
34%
Draw
3.31
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
10%
9.61
8%
12.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 9.2 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.5 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.5 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hansa Rostock vs Erzgebirge AUE?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Hansa Rostock and Erzgebirge AUE expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Hansa Rostock and 1.24 for Erzgebirge AUE, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Hansa Rostock vs Erzgebirge AUE?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 13 outings, Hansa Rostock have picked up 1.31 PPG on a 5W 2D 6L record — W-D-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Hansa Rostock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Erzgebirge AUE's form line: 2W 5D 6L from 13 games, 0.85 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-W. The sample for Erzgebirge AUE is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Hansa Rostock are the form team by 0.46 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Erzgebirge AUE.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Hansa Rostock have posted 1.17 PPG from 6 outings (2W 1D 3L).
On the road, Erzgebirge AUE have gone 0W 3D 3L from 6 away games — 0.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hansa Rostock come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hansa Rostock are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Erzgebirge AUE are on 0.85 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 13 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hansa Rostock
Blended
Erzgebirge AUE
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hansa Rostock and Erzgebirge AUE in coming into this match?
Hansa Rostock have gone 5W 2D 6L in their last 13 games (1.31 PPG), while Erzgebirge AUE have gone 2W 5D 6L in their last 13 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hansa Rostock at home or Erzgebirge AUE away?
Hansa Rostock's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hansa Rostock at home: 1.17 PPG; Erzgebirge AUE away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Hansa Rostock or Erzgebirge AUE been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hansa Rostock have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Erzgebirge AUE in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hansa Rostock and Erzgebirge AUE runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Hansa Rostock
1
Draws
1
Erzgebirge AUE
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hansa Rostock and Erzgebirge AUE?
From 2 meetings on record, Hansa Rostock have won 0, Erzgebirge AUE have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hansa Rostock and Erzgebirge AUE last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2022, when Erzgebirge AUE 2-2 Hansa Rostock.
Who has won more matches between Hansa Rostock and Erzgebirge AUE?
Erzgebirge AUE have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hansa Rostock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Erzgebirge AUE are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Hansa Rostock at 83%, Erzgebirge AUE at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Hansa Rostock) and 50% (Erzgebirge AUE). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Erzgebirge AUE in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hansa Rostock home games / Erzgebirge AUE away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hansa Rostock play Erzgebirge AUE?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Hansa Rostock's games and 67% of Erzgebirge AUE's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hansa Rostock vs Erzgebirge AUE usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Hansa Rostock's matches and 50% of Erzgebirge AUE's.
Do Hansa Rostock and Erzgebirge AUE tend to score early?
Hansa Rostock have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Erzgebirge AUE in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Erzgebirge AUE defy the odds to beat Hansa Rostock 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Erzgebirge AUE beat Hansa Rostock 1-2 at Ostseestadion, Regular Season - 14, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hansa Rostock 1.36 xG and Erzgebirge AUE 1.24 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hansa Rostock attack 0.91 / defence 1.26 against Erzgebirge AUE attack 0.72 / defence 1.32, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hansa Rostock 36% | Draw 34% | Erzgebirge AUE 30%, with Hansa Rostock to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Erzgebirge AUE win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hansa Rostock 62%, Erzgebirge AUE 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hansa Rostock's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Erzgebirge AUE's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Hansa Rostock arrived the stronger side — 1.31 PPG against 0.85. Form was overturned, with Erzgebirge AUE winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Erzgebirge AUE (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.