Hansa Rostock 3-1 1. FC Magdeburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hansa Rostock at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hansa Rostock vs 1. FC Magdeburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hansa Rostock and 1. FC Magdeburg meet at Ostseestadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 17 September 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Hansa Rostock's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Hansa Rostock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Ostseestadion, Hansa Rostock have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
1. FC Magdeburg have collected 0.88 PPG across 8 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 1D 5L. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.38 per game is modest, conceding 2.38 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.38 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Magdeburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.75 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 0.88 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
Hansa Rostock goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
1. FC Magdeburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hansa Rostock 25% versus 1. FC Magdeburg 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hansa Rostock 38% | 1. FC Magdeburg 88%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hansa Rostock 1.54 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hansa Rostock attack 0.822 / defence 0.822 | 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.018 / defence 1.213. League average goals — home 1.545 / away 1.357. 1. FC Magdeburg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.213 — this is suppressing Hansa Rostock's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 42 Hansa Rostock games / 8 1. FC Magdeburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hansa Rostock 46% | Draw 26% | 1. FC Magdeburg 28%. Fair-value odds: Hansa Rostock 2.17 | Draw 3.85 | 1. FC Magdeburg 3.57. Hansa Rostock hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Hansa Rostock as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hansa Rostock if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Hansa Rostock 40% | 1. FC Magdeburg 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hansa Rostock vs 1. FC Magdeburg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Ostseestadion • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Sep 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hansa Rostock 46% | Draw 26% | 1. FC Magdeburg 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Hansa Rostock 1.54 / 1. FC Magdeburg 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Hansa Rostock attack 0.822 / def 0.822 | 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.018 / def 1.213 | league avg home 1.545 / away 1.357 • Poisson stance: Hansa Rostock (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Hansa Rostock xG
Expected Goals
1.14
1. FC Magdeburg xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hansa Rostock vs 1. FC Magdeburg kick off?
Hansa Rostock vs 1. FC Magdeburg kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 17 September 2022 at Ostseestadion.
What was the final score in Hansa Rostock vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Hansa Rostock 3 - 1 1. FC Magdeburg.
Where is Hansa Rostock vs 1. FC Magdeburg being played?
The match is being played at Ostseestadion.
What competition is Hansa Rostock vs 1. FC Magdeburg part of?
Hansa Rostock vs 1. FC Magdeburg is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hansa Rostock vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our statistical model gives Hansa Rostock a 46% chance of winning, 1. FC Magdeburg a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Hansa Rostock the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hansa Rostock vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Hansa Rostock and 1. FC Magdeburg will score (BTTS).
Will Hansa Rostock vs 1. FC Magdeburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hansa Rostock and 1. FC Magdeburg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hansa Rostock and 1. FC Magdeburg in?
Hansa Rostock (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. 1. FC Magdeburg (all comps): 2W-1D-5L in 8 | 0.88 PPG | GF 1.38 / GA 2.38 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Hansa Rostock's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against 1. FC Magdeburg's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. Flip it around — 1. FC Magdeburg's attack (1.02x) against Hansa Rostock's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 42/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hansa Rostock Win
46%
2.16
26%
3.84
28%
3.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Hansa Rostock xG
Total xG
2.68
1.14
1. FC Magdeburg xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
3.61
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
21%
4.66
Win to Nil
15%
6.73
6%
16.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 7.8 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.0 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hansa Rostock vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Hansa Rostock and 1. FC Magdeburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Hansa Rostock and 1.14 for 1. FC Magdeburg, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Hansa Rostock vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Hansa Rostock come into this having played 8 games, going 3W 0D 5L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-L. The sample for Hansa Rostock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, 1. FC Magdeburg sit at 0.88 PPG from 8 outings (2W 1D 5L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for 1. FC Magdeburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Hansa Rostock against 0.88 for 1. FC Magdeburg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Hansa Rostock's home form reads 2W 0D 2L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, 1. FC Magdeburg have taken 1.00 points per game from 4 outings (1W 1D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hansa Rostock come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Hansa Rostock are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Magdeburg are on 1.38 scored and 2.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hansa Rostock have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games; 1. FC Magdeburg in 62%.
Last 8 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hansa Rostock
Blended
1. FC Magdeburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hansa Rostock and 1. FC Magdeburg in coming into this match?
Hansa Rostock have gone 3W 0D 5L in their last 8 games (1.12 PPG), while 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 2W 1D 5L in their last 8 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hansa Rostock at home or 1. FC Magdeburg away?
Hansa Rostock's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hansa Rostock at home: 1.50 PPG; 1. FC Magdeburg away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: 1. FC Magdeburg won 3-0 on 2 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hansa Rostock have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against 1. FC Magdeburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Hansa Rostock
0
Draws
2
1. FC Magdeburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hansa Rostock and 1. FC Magdeburg?
From 4 meetings on record, Hansa Rostock have won 2, 1. FC Magdeburg have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hansa Rostock and 1. FC Magdeburg last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2024, when Hansa Rostock 0-2 1. FC Magdeburg.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hansa Rostock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
1. FC Magdeburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hansa Rostock 25%, 1. FC Magdeburg 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Hansa Rostock) and 75% (1. FC Magdeburg).
On the defensive side: Hansa Rostock have failed to score in 50% of games; 1. FC Magdeburg in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hansa Rostock home games / 1. FC Magdeburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hansa Rostock play 1. FC Magdeburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Hansa Rostock's recent matches and 50% of 1. FC Magdeburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hansa Rostock vs 1. FC Magdeburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Hansa Rostock's recent games and 75% of 1. FC Magdeburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hansa Rostock and 1. FC Magdeburg tend to score early?
Hansa Rostock have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, 1. FC Magdeburg in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hansa Rostock cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over 1. FC Magdeburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hansa Rostock beat 1. FC Magdeburg 3-1 at Ostseestadion, Regular Season - 9, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hansa Rostock 1.54 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 1.14 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Hansa Rostock beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hansa Rostock attack 0.82 / defence 0.82 against 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.02 / defence 1.21, drawn from 42/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hansa Rostock 46% | Draw 26% | 1. FC Magdeburg 28%, with Hansa Rostock to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hansa Rostock 38%, 1. FC Magdeburg 88%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hansa Rostock's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did.
1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hansa Rostock 1.12 PPG, 1. FC Magdeburg 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hansa Rostock win broke the near-deadlock. Hansa Rostock (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.