Hannover 96 0-1 VfL Wolfsburg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Hannover 96 at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hannover 96 vs VfL Wolfsburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 2 as Hannover 96 welcome VfL Wolfsburg to Heinz-von-Heiden-Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 16 August 2026 at 11:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Hannover 96 have gone 3W 6D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W D D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Hannover 96 have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Hannover 96 have posted 3W 6D 1L at Heinz-von-Heiden-Arena — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
VfL Wolfsburg — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. VfL Wolfsburg have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, VfL Wolfsburg have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Hannover 96 carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Profile
Hannover 96 in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
VfL Wolfsburg in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hannover 96 66% and VfL Wolfsburg 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Hannover 96 69% | VfL Wolfsburg 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hannover 96 1.94 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hannover 96 attack 1.035 / defence 1.022 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.627 / away 1.400. Data: 35 Hannover 96 games / 1 VfL Wolfsburg games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Hannover 96 54% | Draw 23% | VfL Wolfsburg 23%. Fair-value odds: Hannover 96 1.85 | Draw 4.35 | VfL Wolfsburg 4.35. Hannover 96 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.94 / 1.22) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hannover 96 are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hannover 96 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.15 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Hannover 96 70% | VfL Wolfsburg 80% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hannover 96 vs VfL Wolfsburg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Heinz-von-Heiden-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Aug 2026, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hannover 96 54% | Draw 23% | VfL Wolfsburg 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 61% | xG Hannover 96 1.94 / VfL Wolfsburg 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Hannover 96 attack 1.035 / def 1.022 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.627 / away 1.400 • Poisson stance: Hannover 96 (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
Hannover 96 xG
Expected Goals
1.22
VfL Wolfsburg xG
61%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hannover 96 vs VfL Wolfsburg kick off?
Hannover 96 vs VfL Wolfsburg kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 16 August 2026 at Heinz-von-Heiden-Arena.
What was the final score in Hannover 96 vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Hannover 96 0 - 1 VfL Wolfsburg.
Where is Hannover 96 vs VfL Wolfsburg being played?
The match is being played at Heinz-von-Heiden-Arena.
What competition is Hannover 96 vs VfL Wolfsburg part of?
Hannover 96 vs VfL Wolfsburg is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hannover 96 vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our statistical model gives Hannover 96 a 54% chance of winning, VfL Wolfsburg a 23% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Hannover 96 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hannover 96 vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Hannover 96 and VfL Wolfsburg will score (BTTS).
Will Hannover 96 vs VfL Wolfsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hannover 96 and VfL Wolfsburg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hannover 96 and VfL Wolfsburg in?
Hannover 96 (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-D-D-L. VfL Wolfsburg (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Hannover 96's attack at 1.03x the league average against VfL Wolfsburg's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.94 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, VfL Wolfsburg's attack versus Hannover 96's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (35/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hannover 96 Win
54%
1.87
23%
4.31
23%
4.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
Hannover 96 xG
Total xG
3.15
1.22
VfL Wolfsburg xG
1.87
54%
Home win
4.31
23%
Draw
4.30
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
14%
6.93
Win to Nil
16%
6.30
3%
29.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 10.1 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 6.3 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hannover 96 vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Hannover 96 and VfL Wolfsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Hannover 96 and 1.22 for VfL Wolfsburg, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Hannover 96 vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hannover 96 come into this having played 35 games, going 16W 12D 7L for 1.71 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-D-L. It's still early in the season for Hannover 96, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, VfL Wolfsburg sit at 0.77 PPG from 35 outings (6W 9D 20L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for VfL Wolfsburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Hannover 96 carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.94 PPG clear of VfL Wolfsburg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Hannover 96's home form reads 7W 6D 4L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.59 PPG return.
Away from home, VfL Wolfsburg have taken 0.94 points per game from 17 outings (4W 4D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hannover 96 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hannover 96 are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; VfL Wolfsburg are on 1.20 scored and 1.97 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hannover 96 have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; VfL Wolfsburg in 69%.
Last 35 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hannover 96
Early Season
VfL Wolfsburg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hannover 96 and VfL Wolfsburg in coming into this match?
Hannover 96 have gone 16W 12D 7L in their last 35 games (1.71 PPG), while VfL Wolfsburg have gone 6W 9D 20L in their last 35 (0.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hannover 96 at home or VfL Wolfsburg away?
Hannover 96's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hannover 96 at home: 1.59 PPG; VfL Wolfsburg away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 16 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Hannover 96
0
Draws
1
VfL Wolfsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hannover 96 and VfL Wolfsburg?
From 1 meetings on record, Hannover 96 have won 0, VfL Wolfsburg have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hannover 96 and VfL Wolfsburg last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2026, when Hannover 96 0-1 VfL Wolfsburg.
Who has won more matches between Hannover 96 and VfL Wolfsburg?
VfL Wolfsburg have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hannover 96 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
VfL Wolfsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Hannover 96 at 59%, VfL Wolfsburg at 76%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Hannover 96 and 65% for VfL Wolfsburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hannover 96 home games / VfL Wolfsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hannover 96 play VfL Wolfsburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Hannover 96's games and 76% of VfL Wolfsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hannover 96 vs VfL Wolfsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Hannover 96's matches and 65% of VfL Wolfsburg's.
Do Hannover 96 and VfL Wolfsburg tend to score early?
Hannover 96 have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, VfL Wolfsburg in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as VfL Wolfsburg defy the odds to beat Hannover 96 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfL Wolfsburg beat Hannover 96 0-1 at Heinz-von-Heiden-Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hannover 96 1.94 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.22 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Hannover 96 fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hannover 96 attack 1.03 / defence 1.02 against VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 35/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Hannover 96 54% | Draw 23% | VfL Wolfsburg 23%, with Hannover 96 to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a VfL Wolfsburg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hannover 96 69%, VfL Wolfsburg 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hannover 96's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Hannover 96 arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 0.77. Form was overturned, with VfL Wolfsburg winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Hannover 96 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.59 scoring average — below par going forward. VfL Wolfsburg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.