Hamburger SV 1-2 SV Darmstadt 98 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hamburger SV at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hamburger SV vs SV Darmstadt 98 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
SV Darmstadt 98 make the trip to Volksparkstadion to face Hamburger SV in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Friday 19 August 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Hamburger SV (all games): 8W 0D 2L across 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 2.40 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Hamburger SV have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hamburger SV's home record at Volksparkstadion: 6W 0D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.80 lags behind their overall 2.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Volksparkstadion this season.
SV Darmstadt 98's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 6W 0D 4L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. SV Darmstadt 98 have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SV Darmstadt 98's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form ledger tips toward Hamburger SV. A 0.60 PPG lead over SV Darmstadt 98 (2.40 vs 1.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Hamburger SV 1W, SV Darmstadt 98 0W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 6 Feb 2022, ended 5–0 with Hamburger SV winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Hamburger SV goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
SV Darmstadt 98 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hamburger SV 55% versus SV Darmstadt 98 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hamburger SV 50% | SV Darmstadt 98 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hamburger SV 1.34 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hamburger SV attack 0.963 / defence 0.808 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.885 / defence 0.932. League average goals — home 1.491 / away 1.274. Data: 38 Hamburger SV games / 38 SV Darmstadt 98 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hamburger SV 47% | Draw 28% | SV Darmstadt 98 25%. Fair-value odds: Hamburger SV 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | SV Darmstadt 98 4.00. Hamburger SV hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Hamburger SV as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hamburger SV if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.25 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hamburger SV 40% | SV Darmstadt 98 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hamburger SV vs SV Darmstadt 98 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Volksparkstadion • Kick-off: Friday 19 Aug 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hamburger SV 47% | Draw 28% | SV Darmstadt 98 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 44% | xG Hamburger SV 1.34 / SV Darmstadt 98 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Hamburger SV attack 0.963 / def 0.808 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.885 / def 0.932 | league avg home 1.491 / away 1.274 • Poisson stance: Hamburger SV (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Hamburger SV xG
Expected Goals
0.91
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hamburger SV vs SV Darmstadt 98 kick off?
Hamburger SV vs SV Darmstadt 98 kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 19 August 2022 at Volksparkstadion.
What was the final score in Hamburger SV vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Hamburger SV 1 - 2 SV Darmstadt 98.
Where is Hamburger SV vs SV Darmstadt 98 being played?
The match is being played at Volksparkstadion.
What competition is Hamburger SV vs SV Darmstadt 98 part of?
Hamburger SV vs SV Darmstadt 98 is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hamburger SV vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our statistical model gives Hamburger SV a 47% chance of winning, SV Darmstadt 98 a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Hamburger SV the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hamburger SV vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Hamburger SV and SV Darmstadt 98 will score (BTTS).
Will Hamburger SV vs SV Darmstadt 98 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hamburger SV and SV Darmstadt 98?
Record (2 meetings): Hamburger SV 1W | Draws 1 | SV Darmstadt 98 0W.
What form are Hamburger SV and SV Darmstadt 98 in?
Hamburger SV (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Hamburger SV's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against SV Darmstadt 98's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. Flip it around — SV Darmstadt 98's attack (0.89x) against Hamburger SV's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.4%), 0-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hamburger SV Win
47%
2.15
28%
3.58
25%
3.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Hamburger SV xG
Total xG
2.25
0.91
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
2.15
47%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
3.92
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
19%
5.34
7%
14.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 9.6 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 12.9 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hamburger SV vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Hamburger SV and SV Darmstadt 98 expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Hamburger SV and 0.91 for SV Darmstadt 98, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Hamburger SV vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Hamburger SV's recent record stands at 19W 11D 8L from 38 games, a 1.79 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Hamburger SV, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
SV Darmstadt 98, meanwhile, have gone 21W 6D 11L across 38 games — 1.82 PPG, with W-L-W-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for SV Darmstadt 98, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.79 PPG for Hamburger SV against 1.82 for SV Darmstadt 98. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Hamburger SV have managed 10W 5D 4L from 19 games — 1.84 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SV Darmstadt 98's away record stands at 9W 3D 7L across 19 trips, a 1.58 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Hamburger SV are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; SV Darmstadt 98 are on 2.05 scored and 1.29 conceded. SV Darmstadt 98's attacking output running into Hamburger SV's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Last 38 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hamburger SV
Early Season
SV Darmstadt 98
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hamburger SV and SV Darmstadt 98 in coming into this match?
Hamburger SV have gone 19W 11D 8L in their last 38 games (1.79 PPG), while SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 21W 6D 11L in their last 38 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hamburger SV at home or SV Darmstadt 98 away?
Hamburger SV's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hamburger SV at home: 1.84 PPG; SV Darmstadt 98 away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Hamburger SV or SV Darmstadt 98 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hamburger SV have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, SV Darmstadt 98 in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hamburger SV won 0-5 on 6 Feb 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hamburger SV have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against SV Darmstadt 98 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Hamburger SV
3
Draws
1
SV Darmstadt 98
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hamburger SV and SV Darmstadt 98?
From 6 meetings on record, Hamburger SV have won 2, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hamburger SV and SV Darmstadt 98 last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2025, when SV Darmstadt 98 0-4 Hamburger SV.
Who has won more matches between Hamburger SV and SV Darmstadt 98?
Hamburger SV have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hamburger SV 58%, SV Darmstadt 98 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Hamburger SV and 58% for SV Darmstadt 98. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hamburger SV keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hamburger SV home games / SV Darmstadt 98 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hamburger SV play SV Darmstadt 98?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Hamburger SV's games and 58% of SV Darmstadt 98's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hamburger SV vs SV Darmstadt 98 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Hamburger SV's matches and 58% of SV Darmstadt 98's.
Do Hamburger SV and SV Darmstadt 98 tend to score early?
Hamburger SV have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, SV Darmstadt 98 in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as SV Darmstadt 98 defy the odds to beat Hamburger SV 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SV Darmstadt 98 beat Hamburger SV 1-2 at Volksparkstadion, Regular Season - 5, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hamburger SV 1.34 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 0.91 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. SV Darmstadt 98 outscored their 0.91 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hamburger SV attack 0.96 / defence 0.81 against SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.89 / defence 0.93, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hamburger SV 47% | Draw 28% | SV Darmstadt 98 25%, with Hamburger SV to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a SV Darmstadt 98 win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hamburger SV 50%, SV Darmstadt 98 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hamburger SV's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hamburger SV 1.79 PPG, SV Darmstadt 98 1.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SV Darmstadt 98 win broke the near-deadlock. Hamburger SV (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.