Hamburger SV 2-2 SC Paderborn 07 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hamburger SV at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hamburger SV vs SC Paderborn 07 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Volksparkstadion plays host to Hamburger SV versus SC Paderborn 07 in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Saturday 28 September 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Hamburger SV (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Hamburger SV have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hamburger SV's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Volksparkstadion this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
SC Paderborn 07's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: W D D D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. SC Paderborn 07 have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SC Paderborn 07 away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.00 PPG for Hamburger SV against 2.10 for SC Paderborn 07. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Hamburger SV 2W, SC Paderborn 07 3W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2024, ended 0–1 with SC Paderborn 07 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Hamburger SV goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
SC Paderborn 07 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hamburger SV 58% and SC Paderborn 07 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Hamburger SV 60% | SC Paderborn 07 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hamburger SV 2.35 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hamburger SV attack 1.400 / defence 0.800 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.165 / defence 1.095. League average goals — home 1.535 / away 1.478. Hamburger SV carry an above-average attack strength of 1.400 — their λ of 2.35 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 40 Hamburger SV games / 40 SC Paderborn 07 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hamburger SV 58% | Draw 22% | SC Paderborn 07 20%. Fair-value odds: Hamburger SV 1.72 | Draw 4.55 | SC Paderborn 07 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Hamburger SV (58%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.73. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.73 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (2.35 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Hamburger SV as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 72% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hamburger SV 50% | SC Paderborn 07 90% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hamburger SV vs SC Paderborn 07 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Volksparkstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Sep 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hamburger SV 58% | Draw 22% | SC Paderborn 07 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 69% | xG Hamburger SV 2.35 / SC Paderborn 07 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Hamburger SV attack 1.400 / def 0.800 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.165 / def 1.095 | league avg home 1.535 / away 1.478 • Poisson stance: Hamburger SV (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.35
Hamburger SV xG
Expected Goals
1.38
SC Paderborn 07 xG
69%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hamburger SV vs SC Paderborn 07 kick off?
Hamburger SV vs SC Paderborn 07 kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 28 September 2024 at Volksparkstadion.
What was the final score in Hamburger SV vs SC Paderborn 07?
Hamburger SV 2 - 2 SC Paderborn 07.
Where is Hamburger SV vs SC Paderborn 07 being played?
The match is being played at Volksparkstadion.
What competition is Hamburger SV vs SC Paderborn 07 part of?
Hamburger SV vs SC Paderborn 07 is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hamburger SV vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our statistical model gives Hamburger SV a 58% chance of winning, SC Paderborn 07 a 20% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Hamburger SV the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hamburger SV vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Hamburger SV and SC Paderborn 07 will score (BTTS).
Will Hamburger SV vs SC Paderborn 07 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hamburger SV and SC Paderborn 07?
Record (6 meetings): Hamburger SV 2W | Draws 1 | SC Paderborn 07 3W.
What form are Hamburger SV and SC Paderborn 07 in?
Hamburger SV (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-W-W-D. SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Hamburger SV's attack rating (1.40) and SC Paderborn 07's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 2.35 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SC Paderborn 07's attack (1.17x) against Hamburger SV's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.8%), 3-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hamburger SV Win
58%
1.73
22%
4.47
20%
5.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.8%
Draw
3 – 1
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.35
Hamburger SV xG
Total xG
3.73
1.38
SC Paderborn 07 xG
1.73
58%
Home win
4.47
22%
Draw
5.01
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.44
31%
BTTS No
3.25
Clean Sheet
25%
3.96
9%
10.54
Win to Nil
15%
6.87
2%
52.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 7.8 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.1 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 7.2 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hamburger SV vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are Hamburger SV and SC Paderborn 07 expected to score?
The model projects 2.35 expected goals for Hamburger SV and 1.38 for SC Paderborn 07, a combined total of 3.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Hamburger SV vs SC Paderborn 07?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Hamburger SV's recent record stands at 20W 9D 11L from 40 games, a 1.72 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Hamburger SV, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
SC Paderborn 07, meanwhile, have gone 18W 10D 12L across 40 games — 1.60 PPG, with W-D-D-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.72 PPG for Hamburger SV against 1.60 for SC Paderborn 07. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Hamburger SV have managed 14W 1D 5L from 20 games — 2.15 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.72 PPG overall — Hamburger SV are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
SC Paderborn 07's away record stands at 9W 5D 6L across 20 trips, a 1.60 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hamburger SV come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Hamburger SV are averaging 1.95 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; SC Paderborn 07 are on 1.62 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Paderborn 07 in 72%.
Last 40 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hamburger SV
Early Season
SC Paderborn 07
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hamburger SV and SC Paderborn 07 in coming into this match?
Hamburger SV have gone 20W 9D 11L in their last 40 games (1.72 PPG), while SC Paderborn 07 have gone 18W 10D 12L in their last 40 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hamburger SV at home or SC Paderborn 07 away?
Hamburger SV's home record (2.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hamburger SV at home: 2.15 PPG; SC Paderborn 07 away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Hamburger SV or SC Paderborn 07 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hamburger SV have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, SC Paderborn 07 in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hamburger SV have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against SC Paderborn 07 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Hamburger SV
2
Draws
4
SC Paderborn 07
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hamburger SV and SC Paderborn 07?
From 8 meetings on record, Hamburger SV have won 2, SC Paderborn 07 have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hamburger SV and SC Paderborn 07 last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2025, when SC Paderborn 07 2-0 Hamburger SV.
Who has won more matches between Hamburger SV and SC Paderborn 07?
SC Paderborn 07 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 50% for Hamburger SV, 80% for SC Paderborn 07 — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Hamburger SV and 80% for SC Paderborn 07. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hamburger SV keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hamburger SV home games / SC Paderborn 07 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hamburger SV play SC Paderborn 07?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Hamburger SV's games and 80% of SC Paderborn 07's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hamburger SV vs SC Paderborn 07 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Hamburger SV's matches and 80% of SC Paderborn 07's.
Do Hamburger SV and SC Paderborn 07 tend to score early?
Hamburger SV have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, SC Paderborn 07 in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hamburger SV and SC Paderborn 07 share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hamburger SV and SC Paderborn 07 finished level at 2-2 at Volksparkstadion, Regular Season - 7, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hamburger SV 2.35 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.38 xG, a combined 3.73. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hamburger SV attack 1.40 / defence 0.80 against SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.17 / defence 1.09, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hamburger SV 58% | Draw 22% | SC Paderborn 07 20%, with Hamburger SV to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hamburger SV 60%, SC Paderborn 07 72%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hamburger SV's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hamburger SV 1.72 PPG, SC Paderborn 07 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Hamburger SV (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.