Hamburger SV 3-1 SSV Jahn Regensburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hamburger SV at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hamburger SV vs SSV Jahn Regensburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hamburger SV and SSV Jahn Regensburg meet at Volksparkstadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 6 November 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Hamburger SV have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W D L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hamburger SV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Volksparkstadion, Hamburger SV have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
SSV Jahn Regensburg (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for SSV Jahn Regensburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, SSV Jahn Regensburg have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Hamburger SV's 1.90 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of SSV Jahn Regensburg's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Hamburger SV lead 2W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 23 Apr 2022, ended 4–2 with Hamburger SV winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Hamburger SV half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
SSV Jahn Regensburg half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hamburger SV 56% versus SSV Jahn Regensburg 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hamburger SV 52% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hamburger SV 1.40 xG and SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hamburger SV attack 0.986 / defence 0.930 | SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.850 / defence 0.990. League average goals — home 1.430 / away 1.286. Data: 48 Hamburger SV games / 48 SSV Jahn Regensburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hamburger SV 44% | Draw 29% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 26%. Fair-value odds: Hamburger SV 2.27 | Draw 3.45 | SSV Jahn Regensburg 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hamburger SV at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hamburger SV if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.41 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Hamburger SV 40% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hamburger SV vs SSV Jahn Regensburg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Volksparkstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Nov 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hamburger SV 44% | Draw 29% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Hamburger SV 1.40 / SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Hamburger SV attack 0.986 / def 0.930 | SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.850 / def 0.990 | league avg home 1.430 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Hamburger SV (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Hamburger SV xG
Expected Goals
1.02
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hamburger SV vs SSV Jahn Regensburg kick off?
Hamburger SV vs SSV Jahn Regensburg kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 6 November 2022 at Volksparkstadion.
What was the final score in Hamburger SV vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Hamburger SV 3 - 1 SSV Jahn Regensburg.
Where is Hamburger SV vs SSV Jahn Regensburg being played?
The match is being played at Volksparkstadion.
What competition is Hamburger SV vs SSV Jahn Regensburg part of?
Hamburger SV vs SSV Jahn Regensburg is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hamburger SV vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Our statistical model gives Hamburger SV a 44% chance of winning, SSV Jahn Regensburg a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Hamburger SV the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hamburger SV vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Hamburger SV and SSV Jahn Regensburg will score (BTTS).
Will Hamburger SV vs SSV Jahn Regensburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hamburger SV and SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Record (2 meetings): Hamburger SV 2W | Draws 0 | SSV Jahn Regensburg 0W.
What form are Hamburger SV and SSV Jahn Regensburg in?
Hamburger SV (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. SSV Jahn Regensburg (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Hamburger SV's attack at 0.99x the league average against SSV Jahn Regensburg's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SSV Jahn Regensburg's attack (0.85x) against Hamburger SV's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hamburger SV Win
44%
2.25
29%
3.42
26%
3.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Hamburger SV xG
Total xG
2.41
1.02
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
3.81
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
25%
4.03
Win to Nil
16%
6.22
7%
15.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 12.7 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hamburger SV vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Hamburger SV and SSV Jahn Regensburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Hamburger SV and 1.02 for SSV Jahn Regensburg, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Hamburger SV vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 48 outings, Hamburger SV have picked up 1.81 PPG on a 25W 12D 11L record — W-D-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Hamburger SV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SSV Jahn Regensburg's form line: 15W 13D 20L from 48 games, 1.21 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-L. The sample for SSV Jahn Regensburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Hamburger SV are the form team by 0.60 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against SSV Jahn Regensburg.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Hamburger SV have posted 1.78 PPG from 23 outings (12W 5D 6L).
On the road, SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 6W 6D 11L from 23 away games — 1.04 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hamburger SV come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Hamburger SV are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; SSV Jahn Regensburg are on 1.33 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 48 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hamburger SV
Blended
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hamburger SV and SSV Jahn Regensburg in coming into this match?
Hamburger SV have gone 25W 12D 11L in their last 48 games (1.81 PPG), while SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 15W 13D 20L in their last 48 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hamburger SV at home or SSV Jahn Regensburg away?
Hamburger SV's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hamburger SV at home: 1.78 PPG; SSV Jahn Regensburg away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Hamburger SV or SSV Jahn Regensburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hamburger SV have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, SSV Jahn Regensburg in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hamburger SV won 5-0 on 15 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hamburger SV have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against SSV Jahn Regensburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Hamburger SV
1
Draws
0
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hamburger SV and SSV Jahn Regensburg?
From 6 meetings on record, Hamburger SV have won 5, SSV Jahn Regensburg have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hamburger SV and SSV Jahn Regensburg last play each other?
They last met on 16 February 2025, when SSV Jahn Regensburg 1-1 Hamburger SV.
Who has won more matches between Hamburger SV and SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Hamburger SV have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
SSV Jahn Regensburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hamburger SV 56%, SSV Jahn Regensburg 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Hamburger SV) and 44% (SSV Jahn Regensburg).
On the defensive side: Hamburger SV keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; SSV Jahn Regensburg in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hamburger SV home games / SSV Jahn Regensburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hamburger SV play SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Hamburger SV's recent matches and 35% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hamburger SV vs SSV Jahn Regensburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Hamburger SV's recent games and 44% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hamburger SV and SSV Jahn Regensburg tend to score early?
Hamburger SV have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, SSV Jahn Regensburg in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hamburger SV cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over SSV Jahn Regensburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hamburger SV beat SSV Jahn Regensburg 3-1 at Volksparkstadion, Regular Season - 15, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hamburger SV 1.40 xG and SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.02 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Hamburger SV beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hamburger SV attack 0.99 / defence 0.93 against SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.85 / defence 0.99, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hamburger SV 44% | Draw 29% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 26%, with Hamburger SV to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hamburger SV 52%, SSV Jahn Regensburg 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hamburger SV's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
SSV Jahn Regensburg's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Hamburger SV arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.21. That form edge translated into the three points. Hamburger SV (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.78 average — above their attacking norm. SSV Jahn Regensburg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.