Fortuna Düsseldorf 2-3 SC Paderborn 07 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SC Paderborn 07 at 66%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SC Paderborn 07 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 9 as Fortuna Düsseldorf welcome SC Paderborn 07 to Merkur Spiel-Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 2 October 2021 at 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 3W 2D 3L from 8 outings — a 1.38 PPG return. Last five: D L W D W. They are averaging 1.38 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Düsseldorf, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fortuna Düsseldorf at Merkur Spiel-Arena this season: 0W 2D 1L from 3 home games — 0.67 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.67 lags behind their overall 1.38 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Merkur Spiel-Arena this season.
SC Paderborn 07 — All Games: 4W 2D 2L from 8 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.75 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.12 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Paderborn 07 away from home this season: 3W 1D 0L from 4 away games — 2.50 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.75 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.50 exceeds their overall 1.75 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.38 PPG (Fortuna Düsseldorf) versus 1.75 (SC Paderborn 07). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Fortuna Düsseldorf trading profile (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 38%.
SC Paderborn 07 trading profile (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; they lead at the break 62% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fortuna Düsseldorf 62% and SC Paderborn 07 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortuna Düsseldorf 50% | SC Paderborn 07 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.06 xG and SC Paderborn 07 2.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.047 / defence 1.264 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.369 / defence 0.917. League average goals — home 1.107 / away 1.422. SC Paderborn 07 have an above-average attack strength of 1.369 — the away xG of 2.46 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 8 Fortuna Düsseldorf games / 8 SC Paderborn 07 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 12% | Draw 22% | SC Paderborn 07 66%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Düsseldorf 8.33 | Draw 4.55 | SC Paderborn 07 1.52. The model has a clear lean to SC Paderborn 07 (66%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.53. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.53 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.06 / 2.46) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SC Paderborn 07 are the pick at 66% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.53 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Fortuna Düsseldorf 100% | SC Paderborn 07 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SC Paderborn 07 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Merkur Spiel-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Oct 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 12% | Draw 22% | SC Paderborn 07 66% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 62% | xG Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.06 / SC Paderborn 07 2.46 • Poisson strength factors: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.047 / def 1.264 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.369 / def 0.917 | league avg home 1.107 / away 1.422 • Poisson stance: SC Paderborn 07 (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Expected Goals
2.46
SC Paderborn 07 xG
62%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SC Paderborn 07 kick off?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SC Paderborn 07 kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 2 October 2021 at Merkur Spiel-Arena.
What was the final score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SC Paderborn 07?
Fortuna Düsseldorf 2 - 3 SC Paderborn 07.
Where is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SC Paderborn 07 being played?
The match is being played at Merkur Spiel-Arena.
What competition is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SC Paderborn 07 part of?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SC Paderborn 07 is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our statistical model gives Fortuna Düsseldorf a 12% chance of winning, SC Paderborn 07 a 66% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making SC Paderborn 07 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Fortuna Düsseldorf and SC Paderborn 07 will score (BTTS).
Will Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SC Paderborn 07 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Düsseldorf and SC Paderborn 07?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Fortuna Düsseldorf and SC Paderborn 07 in?
Fortuna Düsseldorf (all comps): 3W-2D-3L in 8 | 1.38 PPG | GF 1.38 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-D-W. SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 4W-2D-2L in 8 | 1.75 PPG | GF 2.12 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Fortuna Düsseldorf's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against SC Paderborn 07's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.06. The same calculation in reverse, SC Paderborn 07's attack versus Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence, projects 2.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-2, at 9.5%. Close behind: 0-2 (8.9%), 1-1 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Paderborn 07 Win
12%
8.06
22%
4.60
66%
1.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
8.9%
Away win
1 – 3
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Total xG
3.53
2.46
SC Paderborn 07 xG
8.06
12%
Home win
4.60
22%
Draw
1.52
66%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
9%
11.73
35%
2.90
Win to Nil
1%
94.58
23%
4.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 7.3 | 8.9 | 7.3 | 4.5 | 2.2 |
| 1 | 3.1 | 7.7 | 9.5 | 7.8 | 4.8 | 2.4 |
| 2 | 1.7 | 4.1 | 5.0 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Fortuna Düsseldorf and SC Paderborn 07 expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 2.46 for SC Paderborn 07, a combined total of 3.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SC Paderborn 07?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Fortuna Düsseldorf come into this having played 8 games, going 3W 2D 3L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-D-W. The sample for Fortuna Düsseldorf is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SC Paderborn 07 sit at 1.75 PPG from 8 outings (4W 2D 2L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for SC Paderborn 07 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fortuna Düsseldorf on 1.38 PPG, SC Paderborn 07 on 1.75. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Fortuna Düsseldorf's home form reads 0W 2D 1L across 3 games on their own ground, a 0.67 PPG return. That actually lags their 1.38 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, SC Paderborn 07 have taken 3.00 points per game from 3 outings (3W 0D 0L). That's actually stronger than their 1.75 PPG overall record — SC Paderborn 07 travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Paderborn 07 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Fortuna Düsseldorf are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; SC Paderborn 07 are on 2.12 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fortuna Düsseldorf have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; SC Paderborn 07 in 62%.
Last 8 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Blended
SC Paderborn 07
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortuna Düsseldorf and SC Paderborn 07 in coming into this match?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 3W 2D 3L in their last 8 games (1.38 PPG), while SC Paderborn 07 have gone 4W 2D 2L in their last 8 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortuna Düsseldorf at home or SC Paderborn 07 away?
SC Paderborn 07's away record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortuna Düsseldorf at home: 0.67 PPG; SC Paderborn 07 away: 3.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Fortuna Düsseldorf have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Feb 2023, when SC Paderborn 07 won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's record when hosting SC Paderborn 07 specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Fortuna Düsseldorf
2
Draws
4
SC Paderborn 07
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Düsseldorf and SC Paderborn 07?
From 10 meetings on record, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 4, SC Paderborn 07 have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fortuna Düsseldorf and SC Paderborn 07 last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Fortuna Düsseldorf 2-1 SC Paderborn 07.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fortuna Düsseldorf are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 100% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Fortuna Düsseldorf at 100%, SC Paderborn 07 at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 100% for SC Paderborn 07. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SC Paderborn 07 in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortuna Düsseldorf home games / SC Paderborn 07 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortuna Düsseldorf play SC Paderborn 07?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's games and 67% of SC Paderborn 07's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SC Paderborn 07 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's matches and 100% of SC Paderborn 07's.
Do Fortuna Düsseldorf and SC Paderborn 07 tend to score early?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, SC Paderborn 07 in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SC Paderborn 07 edge out Fortuna Düsseldorf 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Paderborn 07 beat Fortuna Düsseldorf 2-3 at Merkur Spiel-Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.06 xG and SC Paderborn 07 2.46 xG, a combined 3.53. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Fortuna Düsseldorf beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.05 / defence 1.26 against SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.37 / defence 0.92, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortuna Düsseldorf 12% | Draw 22% | SC Paderborn 07 66%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 66%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Düsseldorf 50%, SC Paderborn 07 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.38 PPG, SC Paderborn 07 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SC Paderborn 07 win broke the near-deadlock. Fortuna Düsseldorf (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.