FC St. Pauli 1-1 SV Wehen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC St. Pauli at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC St. Pauli vs SV Wehen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 17 as FC St. Pauli welcome SV Wehen to Millerntor-Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 17 December 2023 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC St. Pauli stand at 6W 4D 0L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W D W D D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for FC St. Pauli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC St. Pauli's home record at Millerntor-Stadion: 4W 6D 0L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
SV Wehen — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for SV Wehen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SV Wehen's form when playing away from home: 4W 0D 5L across 9 road games this term (1.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
FC St. Pauli carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.20 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Profile
FC St. Pauli in-play tendencies (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
SV Wehen in-play tendencies (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC St. Pauli 72% and SV Wehen 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC St. Pauli 56% | SV Wehen 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC St. Pauli 1.92 xG and SV Wehen 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC St. Pauli attack 1.137 / defence 0.765 | SV Wehen attack 0.889 / defence 1.049. League average goals — home 1.613 / away 1.434. FC St. Pauli's defence rating of 0.765 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 50 FC St. Pauli games / 16 SV Wehen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 59% | Draw 23% | SV Wehen 18%. Fair-value odds: FC St. Pauli 1.69 | Draw 4.35 | SV Wehen 5.56. The model has a clear lean to FC St. Pauli (59%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC St. Pauli as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.90 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC St. Pauli 60% | SV Wehen 56% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC St. Pauli vs SV Wehen | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Millerntor-Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Dec 2023, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 59% | Draw 23% | SV Wehen 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 54% | xG FC St. Pauli 1.92 / SV Wehen 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: FC St. Pauli attack 1.137 / def 0.765 | SV Wehen attack 0.889 / def 1.049 | league avg home 1.613 / away 1.434 • Poisson stance: FC St. Pauli (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
FC St. Pauli xG
Expected Goals
0.98
SV Wehen xG
54%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC St. Pauli vs SV Wehen kick off?
FC St. Pauli vs SV Wehen kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 17 December 2023 at Millerntor-Stadion.
What was the final score in FC St. Pauli vs SV Wehen?
FC St. Pauli 1 - 1 SV Wehen.
Where is FC St. Pauli vs SV Wehen being played?
The match is being played at Millerntor-Stadion.
What competition is FC St. Pauli vs SV Wehen part of?
FC St. Pauli vs SV Wehen is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC St. Pauli vs SV Wehen?
Our statistical model gives FC St. Pauli a 59% chance of winning, SV Wehen a 18% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making FC St. Pauli the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC St. Pauli vs SV Wehen?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both FC St. Pauli and SV Wehen will score (BTTS).
Will FC St. Pauli vs SV Wehen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and SV Wehen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC St. Pauli and SV Wehen in?
FC St. Pauli (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-D-D. SV Wehen (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates FC St. Pauli's attack at 1.14x the league average against SV Wehen's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.92 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SV Wehen's attack versus FC St. Pauli's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC St. Pauli Win
59%
1.69
23%
4.43
18%
5.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
FC St. Pauli xG
Total xG
2.90
0.98
SV Wehen xG
1.69
59%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
5.47
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
15%
6.85
Win to Nil
22%
4.49
3%
37.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.6 | 10.3 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC St. Pauli vs SV Wehen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are FC St. Pauli and SV Wehen expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for FC St. Pauli and 0.98 for SV Wehen, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for FC St. Pauli vs SV Wehen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC St. Pauli come into this having played 18 games, going 9W 9D 0L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-D-D. The sample for FC St. Pauli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SV Wehen sit at 1.50 PPG from 18 outings (8W 3D 7L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for SV Wehen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC St. Pauli carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of SV Wehen — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
FC St. Pauli's home form reads 4W 5D 0L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.89 PPG return.
Away from home, SV Wehen have taken 1.33 points per game from 9 outings (4W 0D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC St. Pauli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC St. Pauli are averaging 1.94 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; SV Wehen are on 1.33 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC St. Pauli have seen both teams score in 72% of their recent games.
Last 18 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC St. Pauli
Blended
SV Wehen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC St. Pauli and SV Wehen in coming into this match?
FC St. Pauli have gone 9W 9D 0L in their last 18 games (2.00 PPG), while SV Wehen have gone 8W 3D 7L in their last 18 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC St. Pauli at home or SV Wehen away?
FC St. Pauli's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC St. Pauli at home: 1.89 PPG; SV Wehen away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC St. Pauli and SV Wehen runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
FC St. Pauli
1
Draws
0
SV Wehen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and SV Wehen?
From 2 meetings on record, FC St. Pauli have won 1, SV Wehen have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC St. Pauli and SV Wehen last play each other?
They last met on 19 May 2024, when SV Wehen 1-2 FC St. Pauli.
Who has won more matches between FC St. Pauli and SV Wehen?
FC St. Pauli have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
SV Wehen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC St. Pauli 67%, SV Wehen 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (FC St. Pauli) and 56% (SV Wehen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC St. Pauli keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; FC St. Pauli have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC St. Pauli home games / SV Wehen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC St. Pauli play SV Wehen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of FC St. Pauli's games and 56% of SV Wehen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC St. Pauli vs SV Wehen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of FC St. Pauli's matches and 56% of SV Wehen's.
Do FC St. Pauli and SV Wehen tend to score early?
FC St. Pauli have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, SV Wehen in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC St. Pauli and SV Wehen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Millerntor-Stadion, Regular Season - 17, as FC St. Pauli and SV Wehen drew 1-1 in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC St. Pauli 1.92 xG and SV Wehen 0.98 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. FC St. Pauli fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC St. Pauli attack 1.14 / defence 0.77 against SV Wehen attack 0.89 / defence 1.05, drawn from 50/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC St. Pauli 59% | Draw 23% | SV Wehen 18%, with FC St. Pauli to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC St. Pauli 56%, SV Wehen 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
SV Wehen's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC St. Pauli arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.