FC St. Pauli 3-2 SpVgg Greuther Fürth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC St. Pauli at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as FC St. Pauli face SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FC St. Pauli and SpVgg Greuther Fürth meet at Millerntor-Stadion in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 20). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 3 February 2024 at 12:00 UK time.
Form
FC St. Pauli (all games): 5W 5D 0L across their last 10 — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, FC St. Pauli have gone 5W 5D 0L in their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's record over their last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L (2.30 PPG). Last five: W D D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.00 PPG for FC St. Pauli against 2.30 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for FC St. Pauli, 0 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 19 Aug 2023, ended FC St. Pauli 0–0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
FC St. Pauli half-time and goal-timing data (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
SpVgg Greuther Fürth half-time and goal-timing data (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 77% of those occasions; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC St. Pauli 57% versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC St. Pauli 53% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC St. Pauli 1.39 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC St. Pauli attack 1.045 / defence 0.742 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.869 / defence 0.816. League average goals — home 1.629 / away 1.376. FC St. Pauli have a tight defence (rating 0.742), which is pulling SpVgg Greuther Fürth's projected output down. Data: built from FC St. Pauli's last 53 games and SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 53.
Result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 48% | Draw 28% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 24%. Fair-value odds: FC St. Pauli 2.07 | Draw 3.60 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 4.20. FC St. Pauli hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC St. Pauli are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC St. Pauli if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.27 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 56%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: FC St. Pauli 60% (last 10 home games) | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC St. Pauli vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 20 | Venue: Millerntor-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 3 February 2024 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 48% | Draw 28% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG FC St. Pauli 1.39 / SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: FC St. Pauli attack 1.045 / def 0.742 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.869 / def 0.816 | league avg home 1.629 / away 1.376 • Poisson stance: FC St. Pauli (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
FC St. Pauli xG
Expected Goals
0.89
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
44%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC St. Pauli vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth FAQs
What time does FC St. Pauli vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kick off?
FC St. Pauli vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Saturday 3 February 2024 at Millerntor-Stadion.
What was the final score in FC St. Pauli vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
FC St. Pauli 3 - 2 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Where is FC St. Pauli vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth being played?
The match is being played at Millerntor-Stadion.
What competition is FC St. Pauli vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth part of?
FC St. Pauli vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 20) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC St. Pauli vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our statistical model gives FC St. Pauli a 48% chance of winning, SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making FC St. Pauli the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC St. Pauli vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both FC St. Pauli and SpVgg Greuther Fürth will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will FC St. Pauli vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates FC St. Pauli's attack at 1.04x the league average against SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack (0.87x) against FC St. Pauli's defence (0.74x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from FC St. Pauli's last 53 games and SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.6%), 0-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC St. Pauli Win
48%
2.07
28%
3.60
24%
4.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
FC St. Pauli xG
Total xG
2.27
0.89
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
4.20
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
20%
5.01
6%
16.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 9.1 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.3 | 12.7 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 8.8 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC St. Pauli vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC St. Pauli vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are FC St. Pauli and SpVgg Greuther Fürth expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for FC St. Pauli and 0.89 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for FC St. Pauli vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 53 outings, FC St. Pauli have picked up 1.83 PPG on a 26W 19D 8L record — D-D-D-W-W across the most recent five.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's form line: 20W 16D 17L from 53 games, 1.43 PPG, last five W-D-D-W-W.
Put side by side, FC St. Pauli are the form team by 0.40 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, FC St. Pauli have posted 1.96 PPG from their last 26 home games (13W 12D 1L).
On the road, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 5W 7D 14L from their last 26 away games — 0.85 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.43 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC St. Pauli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC St. Pauli are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; SpVgg Greuther Fürth are on 1.45 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 60%.
Defensively: FC St. Pauli have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC St. Pauli
Blended
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
FC St. Pauli (Home) vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC St. Pauli
Blended
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
❓ FC St. Pauli vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth Form FAQs
What form are FC St. Pauli and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in coming into this match?
FC St. Pauli have gone 26W 19D 8L in their last 53 games (1.83 PPG), while SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 20W 16D 17L in their last 53 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC St. Pauli at home or SpVgg Greuther Fürth away?
FC St. Pauli's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC St. Pauli at home: 1.96 PPG; SpVgg Greuther Fürth away: 0.85 PPG.
Have FC St. Pauli or SpVgg Greuther Fürth been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC St. Pauli have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 5 H2H matches between FC St. Pauli and SpVgg Greuther Fürth, the earliest from September 2022. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent was on 9 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC St. Pauli have gone 2W 1D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against SpVgg Greuther Fürth — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
FC St. Pauli
3
Draws
0
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Recent Meetings
❓ FC St. Pauli vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, FC St. Pauli have won 2, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC St. Pauli and SpVgg Greuther Fürth last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 August 2026: FC St. Pauli 1-1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Who has won more matches between FC St. Pauli and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
FC St. Pauli have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC St. Pauli see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 75% of those situations.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC St. Pauli 50%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (FC St. Pauli) and 54% (SpVgg Greuther Fürth).
On the defensive side: FC St. Pauli keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC St. Pauli home games / SpVgg Greuther Fürth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC St. Pauli vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC St. Pauli and SpVgg Greuther Fürth matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of FC St. Pauli's games and 65% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are FC St. Pauli and SpVgg Greuther Fürth matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of FC St. Pauli's recent games and 54% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC St. Pauli and SpVgg Greuther Fürth matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 58% of FC St. Pauli's recent matches and 88% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC St. Pauli edge out SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC St. Pauli beat SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3-2 at Millerntor-Stadion, Regular Season - 20, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC St. Pauli 1.39 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0.89 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. FC St. Pauli beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SpVgg Greuther Fürth outscored their 0.89 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC St. Pauli attack 1.04 / defence 0.74 against SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.87 / defence 0.82, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC St. Pauli 48% | Draw 28% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 24%, with FC St. Pauli to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC St. Pauli 53%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, FC St. Pauli arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.43. That form edge translated into the three points. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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